Nouriel Roubini

The revenge of the bond/stock/credit vigilantes!! As I predicted, in this 3-way game of chicken between Trump , Powell and Xi, Powell did not blink before Trump and the tit-for-tat trade escalation between Trump and Xi continued as neither side blinked relative to the other. Instead, market discipline forced Trump to blink versus most trading partners with the exception of China: Trump’s put strike price was always higher than the Powell put and the Xi put. And the market discipline that forced Trump to blink was not only a bear market in equities but also and more importantly the spike in bond yields and credit spreads (especially HY) and th…

Watch Roubini Expects Trade War With China to Escalate https://t.co/X6EDxcwmaj

Powell Likely to Wait Until Trump Blinks, 'Dr. Doom' Roubini Says https://t.co/hvb6l0wgkZ

Nouriel Roubini has a new word of caution for Wall Street: Traders should temper their bets that the Federal Reserve will ramp up interest-rate cuts to mitigate the effects of President Donald Trump’s trade conflict https://t.co/nWypiAlmTP via @economics

If Musk thinks that Navarro is a “moron” who is “dumber than a sack of bricks” he should also call Trump a bigger “moron” as the Prez is more hawkish than Navarro on tariffs. In the internal Trump 2.0 inter-agency fights on trade the protectionist uber-hawk Navarro was always asking for 10 (maximum tariffs on all trade partners, based on a 1 to 10 scale) knowing that “gradually-escalate-to de-escalate” relative doves like Bessent/Miran would propose 3 (and new uber-hawks Lutnick and Miller were at 8). So Navarro asked for 10 hoping to get a 5 on April 2nd in this inter-agency tariff boxing match. Instead, to the surprise of Navarro himself, T…

Heil Trumpf Kaiser! 🏴🏴‍☠️

Trade diversion galore! Trump is right on imposing tariff on the penguins island as otherwise the evil Chinese will take it over and use it as a base to dump all their goods to America. Ditto as an argument to take over Greenland. We gotta take over both Antarctica and whole Arctic! Btw all those melting 🧊 icebergs are a source of fresh water to ship to thirsty MAGA Americans who will soon not be able to afford even tap water as tariffs destroy their our purchasing power! 🚰😋

Powell is keeping his guns under the table but in this game of chicken the Powell put is as important as the Trump put and the Xi put. Markets have been delusional that Powell put strike price is above Trump’s put strike price. It is NOT! Also delusional that Trump will concede a 90 days “truce” . That will never happen and even some significant negotiations’ de-escalation by Trump (Trump put being exercised) requires a much bigger market meltdown as Trump 2.0 cares much less about the stock market than Trump 1.0! So this 3-way game of chicken 🐔 🐔 🐔 continues for much longer as Trump , Powell and Xi are each waiting for the other two to bl…

We are stepping into dangerous territory. Although Trump’s policies appeared initially to be bullish for the economy and markets, serious threats to the economy and financial system are emerging as he is going full scale into dangerous and damaging protectionism. I’ll reveal my predictions for the next few years during a special livestream so you can prepare for what’s coming. REGISTER here: https://t.co/4VrHUvMoW1

A 3-way game of chicken is being played between Trump, Powell and Xi. The strike price for the Powell put is much lower than for Trump put. And Xi’s put strike live is even lower; thus Xi will let Trump bleed for now in this retaliation Nash game. This is a 3 dimensional chess game and Trump is totally clueless. He can’t even play a one dimensional chess game. And superior chess and poker players like Putin and Xi are already out manipulating Trump on Ukraine, Taiwan and other geo-political issues. Trump was always a naive amateur thinking he could use his carpet bagger Art of the Deal cheap threats and bluffs to complex geopolitical and geoe…

Monday morning quarterback backpedaling in full Reverse after you @BillAckman shamelessly insulted @howardlutnick . But you had already destroyed all your bridges with all the true Trumpian MAGA “Tariff Is The Most Beautiful Word in the English Language” zealots and lunatics starting with the Jihadist-In-Chief Donald Trump. You seem not to get his views of the world - and those of Lutnick, Navarro, Miller, Greer gang - that the only good trade balance is a zero trade balance with no imports, ie a Penguin Island autarky fantasy. These lunatics want literally reshore to the US not just auto and steel but also cheap tee-shirts and sneakers now p…

Only 4 months ago you were brown nosing @howardlutnick like a sycophant for “driving our economy”. Now you accuse him of driving the economy off the cliff because of financial self-interest, ie profiting from low bond yields! Pathetically shameless @BillAckman !

This is a real below the belt cheap shot by @BillAckman against @howardlutnick . Bill, you got the motivations for Lutnick’s views totally wrong. You just accused him of self interest - profiting from low bond yields - when what drives Howard - as well as Trump, Navarro, Greer, Miller, Lighthizer who still has the full ear of Trump, etc - is pure protectionist ideology: they truly believe they need to totally destroy China forever to reshore manufacturing to the US as “China screwed us for 40 years” So you are clueless on what is driving these religious tariff zealots. And you think that they may listen to you as you pontificate from your bil…

@BillAckman : this is a real below the belt cheap shot against @howardlutnick . You got the motivations for Lutnick’s views totally wrong. You just accused him of self interest - profiting from low bond yields - when what drives Howard - as well as Trump, Navarro, Greer, Miller, Lighthizer who still has the full ear of Trump, etc - is pure protectionist ideology: they truly believe they need to totally destroy China forever to reshore manufacturing to the US as “China screwed us for 40 years” So you are clueless on what is driving these religious tariff zealots. And you think that may listen to you from your billionaire elite bully pulpit. Bu…

@BillAckman, you may right on the substance but you totally brown-nosed till now- like most billionaires - to this lunatic and fascist President. Only now when your personal wealth is at risk of being wiped out you are coming out and complaining about his tariff policy and distancing yourself from it when you were fully supporting it till 4 days ago. So you are a shameless hypocrite!

Trump’s new policies. Trade wars. The Russia/Ukraine war. Inflation. China’s A.I. surprising advancement. Now is the time to protect yourself from these megathreats. Join me on a special livestream – REGISTER here:https://t.co/FnGUShI2pi https://t.co/NPuQM81HaX

Great series of tariffs memes. Best ones on the islands where one penguins live! 😆🤣😅

Trump has damaged the US dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” more in a week than any US policy since 1971. And with very large twin fiscal and current account deficits the US still relies on the kindness of strangers (the so called “bad hombres” as he is insulting friends and allies more than foes) to finance its unsustainable domestic and external imbalances. Mar-a-Lago wishful thinking redux…

High gold imports explain the gap btw the Atlanta Fed Nowcast of a severe GDP growth contraction in Q1 and market views of a much milder contraction. So far hard data have remained more resilient than the soft sentiment data . This may likely change after the April 2nd tariffs unless a rapid de-escalation follows the current tariff escalation. To avoid a full US recession in 2025, post-negotiation tariffs needs to be no more than 50% of rates announced on April 2nd. And the de-escalation has to occur fast enough with rapid trade deals after quick negotiations!

The formula used by USTR to compute “reciprocal” tariffs is a lil “fancier” than the goods trade surplus of a country vs the US divided by its exports to the US. It also includes in the denominator two elasticity terms , epsilon and phi, whose product is in practice equal to 1. So in practice only (x-m)/m matters for measuring reciprocal tariffs. But still the entire formula is totally flawed as it assumes that the only fair trade balance is zero. By that standard since the US runs a trade surplus in services other countries should impose a large services reciprocal tariffs against the US to balance that trade too! That reciprocal services ta…

A thread well worth reading looking at the empirical evidence and debunking the White House tariff doublespeak .

I visited about half of these 20 must-see islands. Hopefully I will eventually get to visit the rest of these natural paradises 🏝️🏖️

Calling Tariff Day as “Liberation Day” is literally Orwellian doublespeak. Whatever the consequences of these tariffs will be - ie lower growth and higher inflation and how much of it depending on the eventual size of these tariffs post-negotiations that will be ugly and long-drawn - there is absolutely no “liberation” at all in them: not for US consumers, workers and businesses, let alone for the rest of the world. The only uncertain matter is how deep the pain will be. In weeks to come we will see whether Bessent’s “escalate to de-escalate” view will prevail compared to that of trade hawks such as Navarro, Lutnick, Greer and the President h…

https://t.co/fP3yvkOBqi https://t.co/jAfbtxeXrK

Video of my session at the Raisina Forum Bond Vigilantes Will Keep Trump in Check – Nouriel Roubini’s Analysis | ... https://t.co/S7PKjGzl22 via @YouTube

Bond vigilantes are in control, and that’s bad news for Trump, warns Roubini at Raisina Dialogue 2025 https://t.co/tmjsW61XkE

It was a great honor to meet President Milei of Argentina, a visionary leader who is a once in a generation global policymaker restoring economic success for his country and becoming a role model across the globe for having the courage of doing front-loaded fiscal adjustments and structural reforms https://t.co/DiA4WBV58F

My new op-ed: Trump can make the U.S., Canada and Mexico richer — and challenge China. Here’s how. Europe formed the EU. North Americans can achieve the same vision — or better with a North American Economic Union https://t.co/YxsniQ9mra

My new @ProSyn op-ed: Toward a North American Economic Union. To resolve their current tensions, Canada, Mexico, and the United States should start drafting plans for a North American Economic Union. A single market in goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information would benefit all three countries far more than any alternative arrangement. https://t.co/TMzDepXsnh

Tariffs. Trade wars. AI disruptions. Inflation.

These forces are redefining your business strategy and long-term viability. Join me and @heidimesser at @collectivei Forecast today Tuesday at 11.40am on Zoom. Live Q&A. https://t.co/szfBZCojoR.