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High gold imports explain the gap btw the Atlanta Fed Nowcast of a severe GDP growth contraction in Q1 and market views of a much milder contraction. So far hard data have remained more resilient than the soft sentiment data . This may likely change after the April 2nd tariffs unless a rapid de-escalation follows the current tariff escalation. To avoid a full US recession in 2025, post-negotiation tariffs needs to be no more than 50% of rates announced on April 2nd. And the de-escalation has to occur fast enough with rapid trade deals after quick negotiations!