Nouriel Roubini

Here is below the full text of my latest @prosyn op-ed https://t.co/dQ5rMPfqDy Market Discipline Will Prevail in the US May 29, 2025 NOURIEL ROUBINI Ultimately, either US President Donald Trump will back down from his stagflationary policies to concentrate on pro-growth measures, or financial stress and a recession will cause the Republican Party to lose the midterm elections in 2026. Already, Trump’s more moderate advisors may be getting the upper hand. NEW YORK – Since US President Donald Trump’s election last year, I have argued that at least some of his policies will lead to higher growth and lower inflation over time. This applies to…

Stan was a friend and mentor to me. In my first year Harvard PhD program I took one of his graduate classes at MIT. We remained in touch since then. Stan was also instrumental to me getting an award - a Cristal Ball 🔮- at an event in Israel. He was generous with his mind, time and good heart. And a sharp mind like few others! We will miss you. RIP 🙏

Market Discipline Will Prevail in the US by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/GomnGfqwn7 Ultimately, either US President Donald Trump will back down from his stagflationary policies to concentrate on pro-growth measures, or financial stress and a recession will cause the Republican Party to lose the midterm elections in 2026. Already, Trump’s more moderate advisors may be getting the upper hand.

The TACO Trade! On top of my 6 previous TTTT-rump alliterations here is the 7th one as I was the first to point out that - in the game of chicken between Trump and Xi, Powell and the markets - the first one to blink and chicken out 🐔 would be Trump: Traders Trump Trump To The “TACO Trade”! TACO as: Trump Always Chickens Out! The other 6 are: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! Traders Trump Trump! Tech Trumps Treasuries! Traders Trump Treasuries Too! Trump Trumps Trump Too! WSJ: “The ‘TACO Trade’ That Has Trump Fuming. President says ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ claim is wrong and tariff changes are negotiation״ https://t.co/TBeZ…

As I argued correctly: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! Traders Trump Trump! Tech Trumps Treasuries! Traders Trump Treasuries Too! Trump Trumps Trump Too! I have regularly written recently that Tech Trumps Tariffs as the positive impact on potential growth of tech innovations - at 200bps- is 4X larger than the negative impact of tariffs on growth (at most -50bps). US is headed to 4% potential growth by 2030. I also argued that Tech Trumps Trump Too as it doesn’t matter who runs the White House: it could be Mickey Mouse rather than Trump and we would still get massive increases in potential growth given the dynamism of the private…

As I argued correctly: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! Traders Trump Trump! Tech Trumps Treasuries! Traders Trump Treasuries Too! Trump Trumps Trump Too! https://t.co/GCIou8miX7 I have regularly written recently that Tech Trumps Tariffs as the positive impact on potential growth of tech innovations - at 200bps- is 4X larger than the negative impact of tariffs on growth (at most -50bps). US is headed to 4% potential growth by 2030. I also argued that Tech Trumps Trump Too as it doesn’t matter who runs the White House: it could be Mickey Mouse rather than Trump and we would still get massive increases in potential growth given the…

As I predicted in the game of chicken between Trump and Xi it was Trump to blink and chicken out. The tit for tat trade war escalation started by the US would have spiked US inflation, led to massive supply chain disruptions and would have triggered a serious US and global recession that would have doomed the GOP and the MAGA grand goals by the 2026 mid term elections . So Trump had no choice but to blink while receiving almost no concessions from the Chinese side, not even an agreement like the one in 2019 to buy more US goods such as ag goods. Such modest concessions may emerge during the 90 day period where negotiations will take place to …

Dr. Doom Economist Says U.S. Primed for ‘Exceptional Growth’ Despite Tariffs, Predicts GDP... https://t.co/L2TcqH1GEg via @Barchart

Part 2/2 of my recent @ProSyn oped https://t.co/kM46XIElLb The AI-driven investment boom also implies that, with or without high tariffs, the US current-account deficit will remain high and on an upward trajectory (reflecting the difference between sluggish savings and booming investment). But since America’s exceptional growth will survive Trump, portfolio inflows will continue despite the trade-policy noise. Although fixed-income investors may pull out of US assets and the dollar, equity investors will remain overweight on US assets, perhaps even doubling down. Any substantial weakening of the dollar will be gradual, and the greenback wil…

See below the full text of my new @ProSyn Part 1/2 https://t.co/kM46XIElLb America’s Economic Tailwinds Will Override Trump and His Tariffs By @Nouriel Roubini NEW YORK – Last December, I argued that while some of US President Donald Trump’s policies would be stagflationary (reducing growth and raising inflation), such effects would ultimately be mitigated by four factors: market discipline, an independent US Federal Reserve, the president’s own advisers, and the Republicans’ thin majorities in Congress. The script has played out as predicted. The reaction from stock, bond, credit, and currency markets forced Trump not only to back down fro…

My new @prosyn oped: America’s Economic Tailwinds Will Override Trump and His Tariffs by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/jIhsuVG69s

Video of my Bloomberg interview today at the market close. Roubini Weighs In on Tariffs, US Dollar and Global Relations https://t.co/1JH5CgRQCl https://t.co/tiItz0Km8I

Trump Is Facing Six Wars, and He’s Losing All of Them https://t.co/kBDpTZJ4Jo https://t.co/xgilP07qIj

As reported by Bloomberg, in the game of chicken between Trump and Xi, Trump is “panicking” and “chickening out”… Trump Floats Cutting China Tariffs ‘Substantially’ in Trade Deal https://t.co/yMdkgesevX https://t.co/ewCgpZSf9V

Traders Trump Trump! Or the Bond Vigilantes Redux! In the game of chicken between Powell, Xi and the markets now Trump has blinked with all of them . Stock futures are rallying as he has now backed down on threatening to fire Powell; he has blinked with China begging Xi to start negotiations to de-escalate the destructive trade war; also Elon is abandoning dodgy dumb DOGE to take care of floundering Tesla. And investors forced Trump to back down via market discipline . As I presciently wrote in December (see link below), market discipline, Fed independence/discipline, good advisors (Bessent , Miran) and a thin majority in Congress would be …

My former colleague and co-author @SteveMiran is getting a lot of attention - and criticism as in a WSJ oped today - for a paper he wrote last November where he discussed - among many other topics - a possible tax on US capital inflows into US Treasuries as a way to possibly weaken the US dollar, effectively capital controls on inflows. I worked as an advisor at Hudson Bay Capital (HBC) with Steve when he was there. I read the piece, and though I disagreed with a lot of it, I gave him many comments and feedback that made it better. The piece was written for HBC portfolio managers and clients and as such was an attempt to help investors unde…

Powell cannot change monetary policy on his own even if he wanted to: a majority of the FOMC gotta vote for it and the FOMC will not cut rates as inflation will start going higher as tariffs kick in. Even if Trump were to fire Powell he would not be able bend the FOMC . Trump is shooting himself in the foot with this talk of firing Powell: lower stocks , higher bond yields, higher credit spreads and a weaker dollar. A repeated own goal. Also Powell/Fed not blinking is good for Trump: if Fed were to blink and cut short policy rates the bond yields would go much higher and equities lower as Fed would be behind the curve in anchoring inflation …

Follow live the video streaming of my speech on the global economy that is starting in a few minutes in Turkey. At 2.10pm local time or 7.10am ET. Click on link below https://t.co/tUaGU9hhrx

Here is the link to my podcast interview on Bloomberg’s Trumponomics. “On this week’s episode of Trumponomics, we speak with economist Nouriel Roubini about the all-out trade war US President Donald Trump has kicked off with China, and why it’s a conflict Chinese leader Xi Jinping might think he can weather—and even win”. https://t.co/48uORE9Rfy https://t.co/sG5TergSQZ

Moreover, we are moving from an era of logarithmic tech innovations (initial growth spurt that fizzles out over time) to an era of exponential growth where growth accelerates over time for decades to come. In a world of exponential growth first mover advantages (US ahead) compound over time and imply that second movers (China) never fully catch up to the first mover US even if China will do quite well too.

Link to the video of my new Bloomberg TV interview. “Tariffs War: Roubini Says China Has Lots of Options to Counter Trump” https://t.co/BJeNvyAH9n

Expensive IPhones 📱 and other high end consumer electronics purchased mostly by the well-off/affluent are exempted; but the 80% of good Chinese cheap consumer goods purchased by his left-behind blue collar base at Dollar Stores, Walmart, Costco, and other low price retailers are slapped with a 145% tariff. Most of them are low-end low value-added labor intensive good quality cheap Chinese products that we never ever manufactured in the US in the first place or that we stopped producing decades ago as it is not our comparative advantage to produce low end cheap goods! So he says that he wants to reshore tech rather than cheap toys . But his e…

And the only ones willing to work in our factories get deported! https://t.co/NWkjNXUaSN

Am at a geopol confab in Delphi Greece 🇬🇷 where Pythia - the Oracle of Delphi in the basement of the great temple 🏛️- was always consulted by Athens, Sparta and other Greek cities before taking a major policy action or starting a war. If Trump had consulted her she would have warned him to take it more slowly and not to confront powerful China like a bully lest yo end up in the current Thucydides Trap where the trade war with China may become a full scale economic war with a unmanaged , destructive and disorderly decoupling and where a Cold War that is becoming colder may even end up in a hot war on Taiwan! If current tariffs on China re…

Europe is doing some good work with such startups but USA and China are well ahead of Europe in humanoid robots development at a much vaster scale!

In this big time pissing contest with Xi, it is Trump who needs a big raincoat and umbrella! Indeed, as the NYT reporting from China correctly shows I have been right all along in arguing that Xi can endure much more pain and suffering than Trump does as Chinese history and Xi pronouncements and views are that suffering makes you stronger: Xi told his youth to “eat bitterness”! https://t.co/YdXbNX6ced

Game of Chicken (as I put it) or Liar’s Poker? @izakaminska thoughtfully argues for the latter. But in a game of economic MAD (or MAED), the game of chicken metaphor where one side pretends to be crazy (Art of the Deal Trump style) and the other refuses to blink (Xi who isn’t facing elections and has many policy option to wait out the “crazy”) is a better metaphor than Liar’s Poker. When you have true MAD as in a game of chicken on trade/economic wars the stakes are much higher than in a poker game, even a high stakes one. Also, as i argued this is a 3-ways game of chicken including Powell on top of Trump and Xi. Since, as I expected, Powell …

The Art of the Deal: begging China to beg for a phone call ! Ie how to blink in a game of chicken you are losing by begging the other side to beg you for a call! That is what happens when you lost your leverage while stocks, bonds, credit and dollar values are all free falling and you are panicking! So the party of PANICANs has its HQ in the White House 😱

@LHSummers is right with two caveats. First, as he admitted you don’t want to depend on China for some high tech products that have national security importance: thus the need for the “narrow yard and high fences” for such goods as the Sullivan/Biden policy argued for. Second, comparative advantage is dynamic rather than static: China subsidized for decades the cost of capital, labor, land, energy and water - on top of many other state capitalist policies - to achieve a 30% and still rising share of global manufacturing. That created serious jobs and employment issues in both advanced economies and emerging markets. And that loss of dynamic c…

Indeed Mickey Mouse could be US President and the economy will keep on growing fast as: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! https://t.co/KFuikSlfaU https://t.co/VZQ9yRIKYg