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As I argued correctly: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! Traders Trump Trump! Tech Trumps Treasuries! Traders Trump Treasuries Too! Trump Trumps Trump Too! https://t.co/GCIou8miX7 I have regularly written recently that Tech Trumps Tariffs as the positive impact on potential growth of tech innovations - at 200bps- is 4X larger than the negative impact of tariffs on growth (at most -50bps). US is headed to 4% potential growth by 2030. I also argued that Tech Trumps Trump Too as it doesn’t matter who runs the White House: it could be Mickey Mouse rather than Trump and we would still get massive increases in potential growth given the dynamism of the private sector in the 12 new tech innovations/industries of the future. I also argued that Traders Trump Trump as market traders - ie bond vigilantes and market discipline - would force Trump to back down and de-escalate from excessively high tariffs and risky trade wars. Trump indeed blinked and chickened out in the game of chicken with trade partners and Xi. And now Tech Trumps Treasuries as the bond yield on Microsoft - one of the tech giants - is lower than the one on US Treasuries as large US deficits push yields high and tech firms are a better credit - solvency-wise - than the US government. In due time Traders Trump Treasuries Too as the same bond vigilantes who forced Trump to blink and de-escalate the trade war will also force him to change fiscal policy in a more sustainable direction as otherwise bond yields will go higher and push higher credit spreads and lower the dollar, thus causing a Stagflationary recession and severe financial stress. It may take a lil longer for bond vigilantes to force that US fiscal adjustment - as opposed to the UK where those vigilantes kicked Liz Truss out of power in 44 days - but it wil happen in due time as even a US with the Exorbitant Privilege of the US dollar cannot run large twin fiscal and current account deficits forever. Trump Trumps Trump Too as either Trumps backs down from Stagflationary policies that increase inflation and reduce growth (such as high tariffs, draconian restrictions to migration, attempts to reduce Fed independence, clumsy Mar-a-Lago attempts to weaken the dollar in ways that will become disorderly for FX and bond markets, trash the rule of law at home and abroad); or otherwise such Stagflationary policies will lead to financial stress (in equity, bond, credit, FX markets), cause a severe recession and have Trump lose the mid term elections and dump his MAGA grand plans in the dustbin of history! So the only question is whether Traders Trump Trump first and force an early counter-stagflation course correction that saves economy and markets; or whether Trump continues for long enough Stagflationary policies that will trump his grand Trumpian MAGA targets of third term glory!