Nouriel Roubini

It used to be the case that TALO (Trump Always Leashes Out) is followed by TACO, as post April 2nd. Now FAFO (F- Around & Find Out) by weak rivals or even friends still unleashes TALO. But that is followed by TACO if China or other strong powers (and markets) are involved in this game of chicken. Otherwise the reaction to TALO by hapless rivals - and even friends and allies - that try FAFO is WACO (Weak Always Chicken Out). Unfortunately we are moving from a rules-based international order to one where might makes you right and where “the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must" as Thucydides warned us over 2000 years ago.…

The Real Existential Threat Facing Europe by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/tfUhVlY3wQ

The Outlook for the US Economy in 2026 by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/cmdB2k1Kc4

My new op-ed on Argentina. “Argentina Is on a Path to Economic Success” by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/x0YSGxaLJ9

He said (lashes), Xi said. Another TALO and TACO cycle. They get shorter but markets still over-react to them rather than fading them in advance knowing that as soon as he lashes out, market discipline will force him to chicken out 🧨🎢🎡🎢🐓

Money Will Not Be Revolutionized by @Nouriel Roubini and @brunello_rosa @ProSyn https://t.co/CAGwLSM1Nx What is the future of money and payments systems, domestic and cross-border? Reformed traditional fiat and banks, fin tech solutions, and new real time payment systems? Or cryptocurrencies? Or CBDCs, stablecoins and tokenized deposits? Certainly not cryptocurrencies that aren’t even currencies. Money will evolve rather than be revolutionized

My new @ProSyn op-ed. The future of money and payment systems will be characterized by evolution, not some radical crypto revolution of the kind envisioned by Bitcoin advocates. Money is too much a public good and national-security concern to be left to private, anonymous, decentralized actors.

https://t.co/vnGE2wyxHT

Great speech by Milei. Argentina is on the right track of macro stability policies and structural reforms. Short term volatility will fade out

Good to be listed among the Practitioners even if i feel like a Disruptor

I agree with @ojblanchard1 . Economists can’t just sit in the ivory tower and think . Some of us decided to get involved with the messy second-best world of actual policy making and advice. Messy but necessary to change the world for the better

I will be speaking at *Blockchain Expert Conference*, Israel's The biggest and most influential event of the year for the blockchain and finance industries. Come see me talk about How New Technologies Will Revolutionize Finance. The conference takes place today Monday, September 15th, between 08:00–16:30 at the Avenue Convention Center, Airport City, Israel. More info here: https://t.co/sduZ7TwPU4

Masquerade is a Broadway revival of the classic Phantom of the Opera in an immersive experience a la Sleep No More. Am proud to be one of the financial backers of this amazing new production . Not to be missed even if tickets are mostly sold out for the near future 🎭 https://t.co/RwpxyK5S3g

I am attending and speaking about the global economic outlook at the Ambrosetti Forum

The US Economy Will Thrive in Spite of Trumponomics by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/EeeTOYGrAq While there is no question that Donald Trump's economic agenda is potentially stagflationary, the United States happens to be at the center of some of the most important technological innovations in human history. These will deliver benefits that far outweigh the costs of ill-advised trade and other policies.

My new @ProSyn oped : The US Economy Will Thrive in Spite of Trumponomics by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/UqtcY787gF

My new @ProSyn oped on “Iran Is Headed Towards Regime Collapse”

My podcast with Rock Harbor is a must see! The latest on my global macro and market views!

Here is below the full text of my Project Syndicate column from October 2024 on why “Israel and Iran are Likely to Escalate”. I predicted then that the current military escalation and that Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and even attempt regime change. https://t.co/GoOyWMU3il Israel and Iran are Likely to Escalate By Nouriel Roubini NEW YORK – The conventional wisdom following Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian military facilities in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel is that the risk of further escalation has been contained. Initial statements from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader suggested that …

The endless Trump TACO Terror & TALO Tantrum cycle Early after the April 2nd “Own-Goal Day” tariffs I argued that in the game of chicken between Trump, Powell and Xi the one to chicken out would be Trump . That simple point was turned into the now viral TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) meme by FT’s Armstrong. But the real Trump Tantrum cycle is between TACO and TALO (Trump Always Lashes Out). Indeed Trump impulsive instincts start with TALO that is followed by severe market discipline as bond vigilantes - as well as stock, credit and FX vigilantes - sharply vote with price falls to Trump’s TALO Tantrums. Then Trump panics and gets into a te…

Part 2 of my @FT op-ed: Economists have long discussed whether a game of chicken between a loose-budget government and a monetary authority committed to price stability leads to fiscal or monetary policy dominance. But with inflation still higher than target in the US, Japan and UK, and rising public debt more generally, we are now moving away from a world where central banks wimp out and support the financing of large deficits. Over time it will be increasingly tempting for fiscal authorities to try to implement policies such as ATI that keep a lid on long-term bond yields. But this is a risky, slippery path that leads fiscal authorities t…

Here is below the full text of my latest @prosyn op-ed https://t.co/dQ5rMPfqDy Market Discipline Will Prevail in the US May 29, 2025 NOURIEL ROUBINI Ultimately, either US President Donald Trump will back down from his stagflationary policies to concentrate on pro-growth measures, or financial stress and a recession will cause the Republican Party to lose the midterm elections in 2026. Already, Trump’s more moderate advisors may be getting the upper hand. NEW YORK – Since US President Donald Trump’s election last year, I have argued that at least some of his policies will lead to higher growth and lower inflation over time. This applies to…

Stan was a friend and mentor to me. In my first year Harvard PhD program I took one of his graduate classes at MIT. We remained in touch since then. Stan was also instrumental to me getting an award - a Cristal Ball 🔮- at an event in Israel. He was generous with his mind, time and good heart. And a sharp mind like few others! We will miss you. RIP 🙏

Market Discipline Will Prevail in the US by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/GomnGfqwn7 Ultimately, either US President Donald Trump will back down from his stagflationary policies to concentrate on pro-growth measures, or financial stress and a recession will cause the Republican Party to lose the midterm elections in 2026. Already, Trump’s more moderate advisors may be getting the upper hand.

The TACO Trade! On top of my 6 previous TTTT-rump alliterations here is the 7th one as I was the first to point out that - in the game of chicken between Trump and Xi, Powell and the markets - the first one to blink and chicken out 🐔 would be Trump: Traders Trump Trump To The “TACO Trade”! TACO as: Trump Always Chickens Out! The other 6 are: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! Traders Trump Trump! Tech Trumps Treasuries! Traders Trump Treasuries Too! Trump Trumps Trump Too! WSJ: “The ‘TACO Trade’ That Has Trump Fuming. President says ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ claim is wrong and tariff changes are negotiation״ https://t.co/TBeZ…

As I argued correctly: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! Traders Trump Trump! Tech Trumps Treasuries! Traders Trump Treasuries Too! Trump Trumps Trump Too! I have regularly written recently that Tech Trumps Tariffs as the positive impact on potential growth of tech innovations - at 200bps- is 4X larger than the negative impact of tariffs on growth (at most -50bps). US is headed to 4% potential growth by 2030. I also argued that Tech Trumps Trump Too as it doesn’t matter who runs the White House: it could be Mickey Mouse rather than Trump and we would still get massive increases in potential growth given the dynamism of the private…

As I argued correctly: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! Traders Trump Trump! Tech Trumps Treasuries! Traders Trump Treasuries Too! Trump Trumps Trump Too! https://t.co/GCIou8miX7 I have regularly written recently that Tech Trumps Tariffs as the positive impact on potential growth of tech innovations - at 200bps- is 4X larger than the negative impact of tariffs on growth (at most -50bps). US is headed to 4% potential growth by 2030. I also argued that Tech Trumps Trump Too as it doesn’t matter who runs the White House: it could be Mickey Mouse rather than Trump and we would still get massive increases in potential growth given the…

As I predicted in the game of chicken between Trump and Xi it was Trump to blink and chicken out. The tit for tat trade war escalation started by the US would have spiked US inflation, led to massive supply chain disruptions and would have triggered a serious US and global recession that would have doomed the GOP and the MAGA grand goals by the 2026 mid term elections . So Trump had no choice but to blink while receiving almost no concessions from the Chinese side, not even an agreement like the one in 2019 to buy more US goods such as ag goods. Such modest concessions may emerge during the 90 day period where negotiations will take place to …

Dr. Doom Economist Says U.S. Primed for ‘Exceptional Growth’ Despite Tariffs, Predicts GDP... https://t.co/L2TcqH1GEg via @Barchart

Part 2/2 of my recent @ProSyn oped https://t.co/kM46XIElLb The AI-driven investment boom also implies that, with or without high tariffs, the US current-account deficit will remain high and on an upward trajectory (reflecting the difference between sluggish savings and booming investment). But since America’s exceptional growth will survive Trump, portfolio inflows will continue despite the trade-policy noise. Although fixed-income investors may pull out of US assets and the dollar, equity investors will remain overweight on US assets, perhaps even doubling down. Any substantial weakening of the dollar will be gradual, and the greenback wil…