Jim Bianco

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https://t.co/vv7GUlJ0TF

For all the talk that this deal means inflation will collapse (with Crude Oil) ... the 30-year yield just turned higher on the day. https://t.co/uqT3MOkOS0

The Iran War was over around March 15. At its center was nuclear weapons. Since then, this has been the Strait of Hormuz War. At its center is free passage of oil tankers.

2/2 At their peak last week, AI stocks were 49% of the S&P 500 (chart). This is the most concentrated the stock market has been on a single theme since the railroad stocks of the late 19th century. Higher when SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are added, after they are all public. Given this historic concentration, and AI and non-AI stocks are moving opposite each other (above), is the stock market effectively two asset classes * AI * Everything Else

Red Headlines on Bloomberg crossing at the same time as the post below ... *TRUMP SAYS IRAN DEAL SCHEDULED TO BE SIGNED SUNDAY *TRUMP SAYS NO MONEY WILL EXCHANGE HANDS IN IRAN DEAL *TRUMP SAYS 'WE LOOK FORWARD TO WORKING WITH IRAN' --- The deal's wording is still not public

Red Headlines on Bloomberg Now *TRUMP SAYS IRAN DEAL SCHEDULED TO BE SIGNED SUNDAY *TRUMP SAYS NO MONEY WILL EXCHANGE HANDS IN IRAN DEAL *TRUMP SAYS 'WE LOOK FORWARD TO WORKING WITH IRAN' --- The deal's wording is still not public.

Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina has been missing from public view since May 28, skipping three major events—including the June 4 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum ("Russian Davos"), and a critical interest rate meeting with Putin on June 9th. The Kremlin claims she is on "sick leave." Her bio is still on the Russian Central Bank website as its head. She has been clashing with Putin over wartime inflation and military recruitment spending. She is resisting intense pressure to cut rates and effectively print money to fund war spending and massive soldier bonuses to meet recruitment goals (because casualties are soaring i…

SpaceX employees with their Starship Rocket in the background. https://t.co/avvvYPr9Xp

Elon's net worth ended today at $1.109 trillion, up $413 billion over the last two days (per SpaceX IPO pricing). How was your week? https://t.co/Tv2vkzL3ph

*MUSK BECOMES WORLD'S FIRST TRILLIONAIRE AS SPACEX JUMPS AT OPEN

Since the War began on Feb 27th, the S&P 500 (black) is up 7.34%. But the S&P 500 without AI stocks (blue) is effectively unchanged. So, the entire S&P 500 Index rally since February has been driven by AI stocks. But look at what happened on Friday, June 5th! The S&P 500 was down 2.6%, its biggest daily loss since last October. The S&P 500 without AI was up 0.02% (call it unchanged). So, the entire sell-off on Friday was AI stocks. The "normal world" did nothing on Friday.

Bloomberg red headline crossing in the last 10 minutes. *ISRAEL'S IDF SAYS STRUCK MILITARY TARGETS IN IRAN

A thought In the 1950s to the 1970s, information channels were so scarce that even the most studious investor, reading the same New York Times as everyone else on the morning commute, inevitably absorbed the same narrative, producing classic groupthink. Today, I fear we might be recreating that exact dynamic at digital speed: millions of users generate daily AI briefings with near-identical prompts fed into overlapping models, receiving essentially the same market summaries, signals, and conclusions. The result? A new era of synchronized thinking, just like 50–70 years ago, when alpha generation was far higher precisely because consensus c…

The reposted chart shows the results of China's admission to the WTO in 2001. This chart shows the consequences of it (see the 2019 book "Death of Despair and the Future of Capitalism" by Anne Case and Angus Deaton) https://t.co/LNRW92AAgn

@Rangfeng1117 Read what I said

President Trump has changed the narrative about interest rates to “higher is always bad for whatever reason,” and “lower is always good for whatever reason.” This is incorrect. If rates go to 6% because of a strong economy, and see earnings and the low unemployment rate, this will be a good thing. If rates go to 6% driven by accelerated inflation, this will be a bad thing. The why matters more than the level when it comes to interest rate rates. But the worst thing is to use government and monetary policy to force them too low, and create speculative excesses. This results in malinvestment that often ends in tears.

Yesterday, VOO, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, surpassed $1 trillion dollars in assets. The first ETF to hit this milestone. IVV and SPY are in second and third place; they are all S&P 500 tracker ETFs. @EricBalchunas @JSeyff @DaveNadig https://t.co/RHZxfyDhax

The Federal Reserve Act says the President can fire a Fed Governor "for cause." No President has attempted to fire a Fed Governor "for cause," so no one knows what this means. Trump is attempting to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook for cause, claiming she committed fraud in improperly filling out a mortgage application. Cook is defending herself, and the Supreme Court heard oral arguments about the case on January 21. A ruling is expected in the next few weeks (the Supreme Court term ends at the end of June, and we are awaiting several rulings before then). --- Specifically, the court will have to define what constitutes a "cause" to fire a …

Within 60 days, if not less than 30 days. Here is one "why." -- Last week on Bloomberg TV, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned that despite ongoing peace talks, persistent shipping disruptions and kinetic risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain very real. He emphasized that the global system is structurally tight, citing U.S. distillate and gasoline inventories at their lowest levels since 2003, with zero spare refining capacity to replenish them. Crucially, he noted that even if a diplomatic resolution is reached, independent shipowners and cautious insurers will be deeply hesitant to rush back in, preventing any immediate return to normal supply …

Here is my take, which is consistent with the Goehring & Rozencwajg letter in the repost? ---- Every crisis—1997, 2008, 2020—starts with the same institutional script: treating a structural problem as a temporary liquidity glitch. Wall Street is hardwired to assume that everything will safely revert to a mean, fearing the phrase "this time is different." It takes months of frustration to realize the rules of the game have changed. Today, I fear we are repeating this exact behavioral trap. Believing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a brief, 60-day hurdle, governments and oil companies are aggressively draining inventories to bridge the…

@JiggaGeralt As above, you have your own definition of a bubble that differs from others'.

@JiggaGeralt If you want a definite answer give a definite definition

@mtochs @PawRze Check back in a year or two

@Fred_Blurst So you're on the opposite side of all those replies saying it's too narrow a definition. What is the correct definition?

@iapananidis You have a definition of bubble that others do not share. Others here bubble and think, "make a lot of money."

@PawRze How do you measure the results?

This chart is more important Token usage (blue bars) is exploding higher. It started in January when Agentic AI went mainstream with Claude Cowork and Moltbook (OpenClaw). AI users are creating agents and code, leading to exponential growth in AI usage. It's just starting. https://t.co/n0W8MvRUJG

@Coffee__Capital Data centers are "bringing their own power" and bypassing utilities, so they are not responsible for raising electric bills.

1/2 Yesterday, I posted the chart below, which shows that the entire "war rally" in the stock market has been driven by AI. Take out AI, and the rest of the stock market has done little since gasoline started soaring (blue). Is this a bubble? Probably. But the more important question, when in the "bubble cycle" are we, rather than just a proclamation that there is one? Remember that bubbles can be both the best time to make a lot of money and the hardest time to hold on to that money (when they pop). Using the internet bubble as a benchmark: Is today more like Dec 5, 1996, when Greenspan warned of "irrational exuberance"? If so, and you …