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Here is my take, which is consistent with the Goehring & Rozencwajg letter in the repost? ---- Every crisis—1997, 2008, 2020—starts with the same institutional script: treating a structural problem as a temporary liquidity glitch. Wall Street is hardwired to assume that everything will safely revert to a mean, fearing the phrase "this time is different." It takes months of frustration to realize the rules of the game have changed. Today, I fear we are repeating this exact behavioral trap. Believing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a brief, 60-day hurdle, governments and oil companies are aggressively draining inventories to bridge the gap. They are treating a potential permanent, structural deficit in the world’s crude supply as a short-term liquidity problem. Burning the lifeboats to build a temporary bridge only works if a resolution is guaranteed. By artificially delaying gradual demand destruction today, we ensure it hits all at once tomorrow should inventories slam into operational minimums. Why is the market so blind to this? Because over the last five years, macro investors have developed deep scar tissue from listening to "experts": * Q2 2020: Virologists scared investors into selling at the pandemic market bottom. * April 2020: Commodity bears screamed that oil was irrelevant right as it hit its historic generational low. * H2 2022: Economists panicked investors into dumping equities at the peak of 9% inflation. * Q2 2023: Banking analysts screamed sell at the market bottom following Silicon Valley Bank's failure. * April 2025, Policy Analysts scared investors about tariffs and Liberation Day to sell the low of the year. The market learned that when the experts scream trouble, buying the dip makes money, and hedging for disaster loses it. But ignoring the energy sector today, investors might be confusing past false alarms with a looming physical reality ... tanks really are running dry, and prospects for the Strait to "normalize" are nonexistent.