Jim Bianco

Spain, Portugal and Morocco are all hosting the 2030 World Cup.

@the7th_sleeper The understanding is that, logistically, they have to announce the presser a week before. This is because many reporters live in New York. And if they announce it ahead of time, they basically told you what the outcome.

Let me rewrite the opening sentence: Trump has ordered fresh attacks aimed at getting Tehran to surrender that could begin as soon as the NYSE closes on Friday and last until crude oil reopens in Asia on Sunday night.

The Fed should allow the dissenters to put out these rationales with the statement on Wednesday. Then Warsh could be asked about them, in addition to defending his vote, which I assume would be in the majority.

South Korea might be the biggest "degen" market in the world. (meaning dominated by reckless retail investors). And here we go! *KOSPI JUMPS 14% AS SK HYNIX, SAMSUNG UP MORE THAN 25%

Dudley wants the Fed to publish its reaction function. Whose? Warsh just drew three dissents and calls the family fight a "design feature." This isn't 12 voters with one reaction function anymore. It's 12 voters with 12 reaction functions. Dudley's right that Warsh at least owes us his. But a function of what? Warsh: "We're going to deliver two percent inflation and not a whisper more. But to achieve that, I'm looking at a broader set of inflation data than PCE." He needs to define the metric before he can give us the rule. Then we're only 11 short of understanding this Fed. @NickTimiraos @lebas_janney

Devil mortgages are back! *US MORTGAGE RATES RISE TO 6.66%, HIGHEST LEVEL IN A YEAR

1/2 The probability of a Fed hike in Sept was 107% yesterday, but now it is 56%. "Bond traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." Under 50% = no Fed panic about inflation If no Fed panic, then the bond market will slow inflation with even higher yields. https://t.co/fi41dRZaBE 2/2 If, in the coming weeks, the Sept probability (above) falls below 50% and bond traders "panic" about inflation sending yields higher, how can the Fed reverse this before the Sept meeting? The Fed now has 12 independent voters. Three want to hike rates now. If Waller gives a speech saying he's ready to hike, that would be four to hike (I'm sur…

The Warsh press conferences aren't going to work in their current form, and it isn't because he's dodging. The post-meeting press conference is a vehicle for forward guidance. Warsh has stopped it and restated that today at the top he is "steering clear of forecasting," and "market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee." Today he took 20 questions from 11 reporters, and by my count 14 asked for a future path or reaction function, 8 of them outright. That's not a lazy press corps. It's a room with no other established question, asking the only one it knows eight different ways and getting declined eight times. Everyone …

How long before Bessent punches him in the face?

Fed Gov Chris Waller voted to hold rates steady. Waller said this on July 13: "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option." I agree, as does the bond market. So why did Waller vote to hold rates steady? Had he voted to hike, would the bond market's reaction today have been "calmer"

Crossing now: *TRUMP: WARSH WOULD LOVE TO SEE LOWER INTEREST RATES *TRUMP ON FED: WARSH IS FANTASTIC Does Trump understand that talking about cutting rates is causing this (red headline on Bloomberg)? *TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD TOPS 5.20% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007

My reaction on @BloombergTV is below. Two takeaways. 9 - 3 vote. Dissents are the new forward guidance. I think when we get to the end of the Warsh term as Fed Chairman, we're going to see a vast majority of the meetings were 11-1 or 12-0 votes. But when they are moving to change policy, dissents are the forward guidance that tells you the Fed is about to go a different direction. What Changed? Bob Michael of JP Morgan asked what changed. He asked why the Fed would hike rates because the data didn't really move that much from June, when we had a 12-0 vote. Correct. I would argue what changed is the way that the Fed now operates. It's n…

Fun stat highlighting the uncertainty around the outcome of this Fed meeting Total volume bet on Kalshi This meeting = $69 million June meeting = $3 million

The quote/chart from Bloomberg below is accurate. But keep in mind that from 1994 until Warsh, the Fed has operated under various forms of "forward guidance" (saying what you plan to do). That ended with Warsh starting with the June meeting ... and it is now front and center with this meeting. (I've been a critic of forward guidance as it has too often been viewed as a "promise" of future monetary policy, leading to over-speculation and moral hazards. So, I'm glad it is gone.) ---- Bloomberg: Since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2008, the Fed has never raised rates when swaps assigned less than a 60% probability to such a move. Loo…

@wtkthecontrari1 By the way, $MTUM is still up 15% YTD, almost double the S&P 500's return.

I will be on @BloombergTV at 2 PM ET (right after the minutes are out) reacting to the Fed decision.

Core PCE removes food and energy (oil) and is the Fed's favorite inflation measure. It is 80 bps higher than in April 2025. The post-COVID average and std dev (blue) "step-functioned" higher than the previous two cycles (red and green). We are in a new higher inflation regime post-COVID. The era of sub-2% inflation ended six years ago; that was the previous cycle. So, in this environment, don't be surprised that when the Fed cuts rates, the 30-year yield goes straight up and is a few basis points from a 19-year high (repost). Warsh said, "Inflation is a choice." If the Fed "chooses" to do something about it, then the bond yields calm down…

Warsh is trying to change the Fed. * Waller is insulting Warsh in front of colleagues at dinner. * Fed Gov Barr is against balance sheet changes before they are proposed * Now Bostic is worried they will make changes for no reason at all. The Fed is insular and broken

1/2 1-year inflation swaps are useful — like a point spread. That doesn’t mean you should treat them like a sure thing. Before last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs were about a 1½-point favorite. The Eagles won by 18 (40–22). The line told you something. The final outcome was something else. Same idea with 1-year inflation swaps. They are a real market signal. They are not a precise forecast of where inflation will be in a year. The chart shows the miss: on average, the swap has been too low on inflation (red below blue since 2020), and the errors get large during regime shifts (2022) — exactly when people lean on these numbers the hardest.…

Trump yesterday: Warsh "wants to do the right thing" but is facing opposition from the Fed board. --- I argued below that the Fed now has 12 independent voters, and Warsh is only 1 of those 12 voters. Trump just confirmed this! A 35%-40 % probability of a hike tomorrow reflects a very real possibility that Warsh could be outvoted, and that we are no longer on forward guidance (hints about what is coming). This is not the Powell/Yellen/Bernanke Fed anymore, so we need to stop explaining how they did things. @EricBalchunas

Market pricing closed today with a 38% probability of a hike, so it is not that far from Citadel. https://t.co/7ebYZnYP1B

Thanks to @cvpayne for a good discussion today on two asset classes and the Fed. https://t.co/29WJcRJEfu

1/4 The odds of a hike at Wednesday’s meeting are 36%. At no point over the last month or two have these odds reached 50%, but again, this is fairly odd to see such uncertainty so close to a meeting. https://t.co/RxRnCIbMNF 2/4 Since the financial crisis ended in June 2009, the Fed has held 135 FOMC meetings. Only four (3%) of them had enough uncertainty for the probability to be between 33% and 66% in the days leading up to the meeting. https://t.co/A5auwKMRgr 3/4 Three of them revolved around financial stress, prompting market players to wonder whether it would force the Fed to be more dovish. The fourth was September 2024, but the u…

Is the stock market now two asset classes? From our new podcast (See the repost below). https://t.co/pdgVqwB2JF Here is my thread on the stock market becoming two asset classes. https://t.co/5WJQTJaTyu

Rational Dissent Episode 001. Why Do Investors Expect So Much? https://t.co/VGiEtYyoK0

Per Bloomberg https://t.co/dhuTx3AWpp

The repost is my spot on @CNBCFastMoney today. The market closed Friday with a 38% probability of a Fed hike next week. I expect they will vote for a hike, and it will get between 3 and 7 votes. This means it will probably not pass (at least right now), but these votes could see 3 to 6 dissents (9 - 3 to 6 - 6). A September hike is 104%. This is why I think we see several dissents. They cannot vote 11 - 1 this meeting and hike next meeting, given that several votes have given speeches saying they think they should hike. This is a new Fed with 12 independent voters. Warsh likes to say "inflation as a choice." Choose to do something about it…

The repost details the biggest risk for a crude oil long position... and as the chart shows, the rally has stalled (for now). https://t.co/lFCG9RWLHq

So, by 2031? https://t.co/XkNa2NX7Ia