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1/7 Is the Stock Market Two Asset Classes? Updated 🧵 We have been arguing that the stock market is effectively two asset classes: AI stocks and non-AI stocks. There are 41 AI-related stocks in the S&P 500. https://t.co/7waOF9KndR
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It's here: my new podcast, Rational Dissent Episode 001, "Why Do Investors Expect So Much?" Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect? Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent 00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview 02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle 06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market 09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio 11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model 17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending 26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities 28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable 32:42 - Closing Remarks
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