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1/4 The odds of a hike at Wednesday’s meeting are 36%. At no point over the last month or two have these odds reached 50%, but again, this is fairly odd to see such uncertainty so close to a meeting. https://t.co/RxRnCIbMNF 2/4 Since the financial crisis ended in June 2009, the Fed has held 135 FOMC meetings. Only four (3%) of them had enough uncertainty for the probability to be between 33% and 66% in the days leading up to the meeting. https://t.co/A5auwKMRgr 3/4 Three of them revolved around financial stress, prompting market players to wonder whether it would force the Fed to be more dovish. The fourth was September 2024, but the uncertainty was whether the Fed would cut 25 or 50, not whether they would cut at all. 4/4 This meeting (the 136th since the financial crisis) has the probability of a hike at 36% as of this writing. But this is about the end of forward guidance. This suggests that such certainty will be the norm going forward.