Jim Bianco

I agree, the market needs to start looking at the price of the stuff we use, distillates (gasoline/diesel), and not the raw material to make it (crude oil). Diesel prices are soaring, especially in Europe. Consider that Russia/Ukraine might matter more for energy markets. -- Gasoil continues to soar in Europe, as the chart below shows. Gasoil is now well above May’s peak (when crude prices were over $140 per barrel). Europe gets its diesel from Russia, and Ukraine keeps blowing up their refineries. Russian refinery output is down by more than half, and they’re no longer exporting diesel, and there’s a real shortage in Europe right now. -- …

Gasoline prices are highly seasonal and should be falling through the end of the year. The black line is 2026, and it's now 20 cents higher than any price seen between now and December 31. https://t.co/OhLUDmWt79

We often say that every recession changes an economy, so the subsequent recovery is different than the previous recovery. And we are clear that different is not worse. (The corollary of “economic expansions do not die of old age, they are murdered.”) The thread below lays out several post-COVID differences. All of them point to more inflation, which we have had for several years (core PCE is now in its 65th consecutive month above 2% and even above 3%, compared with just five months in total between 2009 and 2021). This inflation means the tools of 2009 to 2021 not only don’t work, but actually make things worse. * Cutting rates to zero (o…

My English cream-colored golden retriever during the Fourth of July celebration. She thanks all Belgian Malinois' who do the hard things to keep our country safe? https://t.co/4xuDHFMOHj

*US 30-YEAR TREASURIES ERASE GAINS FROM BUYBACK ANNOUNCEMENT https://t.co/MMbtHrGXvD

https://t.co/8PYfxhHrUR

Incoming Berkeley MBAs asked a series of questions during orientation this week. I'm shocked his positive ranking was even this high. @DavidSacks @Jason @chamath @friedberg https://t.co/89C1X4iSCD

I've been saying "bond traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." I guess I should have said, "bond traders can stop panicking when Scott Bessent starts panicking." *TREASURY DEPT ANNOUNCES INCREASED SIZES OF LONG-END BUYBACKS *LONG-TERM US YIELDS DROP ON TREASURY PLANS TO BOOST BUYBACKS Three-day tick chart of 30-year yields.

Last week, Vice President Vance said on the @willcain show: "That's goal number one. Keep oil and gas cheap for Americans all over our country." --- Note that he said goal number two was stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. This is consistent with the view I picked up from @Geo_papic ... oil is the independent variable in the war, not the dependent variable. This means @potus wakes up every morning, looks at the price of oil, and that dictates his prosecution of the war. Not the war dictates where the price of oil will go. @potus is trying to manage oil prices first, the war second. Understanding this will clear up a lot of th…

As the probability of a Sept rate hike shrinks (red), the 30-year yield (blue) continues to make new 19-year highs (back to 2007), now 5.29%. As I write, WTI crude oil is only up 33 cents today. This is not a reaction to that market. -- "Bond traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." The high yield in the 30-year will come when the Fed finally panics and hikes rates.

Just 13% of U.S. large-cap funds have outperformed indexes over the past decade - “If you look at active equity mutual funds, they’ve had outflows every year consistently since 2015,” ... “That’s a losing trend only compared to the New York Jets.”

I’ve argued that Dario Amodei of Anthropic and Sam Altman of OpenAI have "oversold" the transformative (and disruptive) power of their companies in ways that lead many people to believe most other businesses and investments will be worth far less. They may have done too good a job. That messaging helps explain some of the current pushback against data centers, Senator Sanders’ recent call for AI companies to pause development of advanced models, and the boos and walkouts directed at tech/AI figures at several 2026 graduation ceremonies. Too many people now view these labs as building a jobs doomsday machine. @GavinSBaker’s comments on the…

Rational Dissent Episode 004. The State of the Labor Market Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, Overcast, etc. --- Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium 03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates 13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits 17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection 28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs & Education 33:34 - How the Definition of Work is Evolving

Brian Armstrong is the CEO of Coinbase. It's a perspective ... I guess https://t.co/g92zFvlxwy

@AndreasSteno @CamKmarkets And two days ago, Kpler said this. https://t.co/LmXJGIoqrV

As I like to say, "Never take your interest rate advice from real estate people.” They only know one thing … rates HAVE TO go lower, and the appropriate rate is 0% to 1%. Oh yeah, the President is a real estate guy. Remind me what he thinks about interest rates??? If you think I'm being hard on real estate people, please look up how it worked out for them in 2008.

A lot of people think this. But it might not work the way they think Explained here https://t.co/rUGhBeiufx (BTW, I love this meme!)

For those who want to be bullish on bonds, do you really want the Fed to NOT hike rates in September? Consider: The red line is the probability of a Fed hike on September 16th. It was above 100% until the July 29th FOMC meeting. It dived at that meeting, also dived on the employment report on August 7th, and on the CPI report this morning. It is currently 39%. The blue line is the 30-year yield. When the probability of a hike was over 100%, this 30-year yield was 5.08%. Now that the probability of a rate hike has declined to 39%, the 30-year yield is 16 basis points higher at 5.24%. See the thread below showing the same relationship has be…

Five ships yesterday, two today (day is not quite over), versus about 120/day pre-war. (spike to 40 was the immediate days after the MOU was signed) --- If this is "total control" over the Strait, what would "loss of control" look like? Just asking. https://t.co/4nR2tck59h

Me on @BloombergTV talking about the Fed and inflation. https://t.co/kRJBaRWKYk

*JOSH KUSHNER, BOB IGER TO BUY LA LAKERS FOR OVER $12B: ESPN -- Did the Lakers' price go up or down after LeBron went to Philly?

I use the AAA data back to 2004 and get exactly the same thing. Since 2004, only two years have seen higher gasoline prices after March 17 * 2022 (red) = the year of 9% inflation (June 2022) *2008 (orange) = the year of the all-time high in WTI prices ($147 in July 2008) https://t.co/Ekmb2Ha7wN If the war is not resolved, 2026 prices (black) will probably trend sideways for the rest of the year and "separate" at a much higher level into the fall/winter. My guess is drivers will notice. Fix the x-axis format on this version https://t.co/OfGDbQOMDh

Rational Dissent Episode 003. Valuations in An Earnings Explosion Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, Overcast, etc. ---- Is the juice worth the squeeze? Earnings keep rising, valuations are questionable, and investors are uncertain. What should you make of earnings these days? Chapters 00:00 Hot Open & Intro 00:51 Why Earnings Confuse 03:54 The Anthropic Effect 07:10 Include Other Income 09:36 OpenAI Next Wave 12:32 Valuations vs Earnings 18:05 Data Sources Diverge 22:42 Quant Models in Trouble 26:05 Vendor Financing History 29:15 CapEx & Bubble Risks 37:10 Lightning Round Fed or Earnings 38:53 Wrap Up & Subscribe

2/5 The chart below shows the 10-year yield since September 18th, 2024, when the Fed started cutting rates with a 50 bps move. In total, they’ve cut rates by 175 bps, with the last cut coming on Dec 10th, 2025. The 10-year yield is 98 bps HIGHER during this period. https://t.co/n9ZkAHso3Z 3/5 How unusual is it for rates on the long end of the curve to rise during a cutting cycle? First, what are the cycles? Below shows several cycles using the funds rate since 1988 and the discount rate before that, going back to 1971. It shows 55 years of Fed cycles. https://t.co/XGksIfYSqd 4/5 Next shows the change in the 10-yr yield from the begin…

Will this include demanding the Fed hike rates? “Bond traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking.” The market is worried about inflation. If the Fed shows SOME concern, yields can peak.

https://t.co/vrsvOTI35c Lots of people asked what we “win” if we beat the Chinese in AI. Short answer: our economy. Senator Sanders is effectively proposing the economic equivalent of “defunding the police.” Stripping the tools and speed that let American companies and institutions defend themselves in a rough global neighborhood. Longer answer: As AI models and applications grow more powerful, they can discover, circumvent, or disable the software that runs a modern economy. Imagine waking up to widespread banks offline, critical intellectual property (product designs, customer lists, source code) stolen or locked for ransom, and medica…

The CEO is Mat Ishiba, majority owner of the Phoenix Suns and has an option to buy the Chicago White Sox in 2030. This is the oldest story in business: when you're distracted by a professional sports team, let alone two professional sports teams, your original business falls apart.

Right now, the hardest thing for Fed watchers to understand is the FOMC policy decisions are now made by twelve independent voters, not a chairman who tells the other eleven how to vote. This is why the criticism of Warsh for not providing forward guidance or a reaction function (rules for future moves) are misplaced. There are now twelve forward guidances and/or twelve reaction functions to consider. Trump gets it. Follow up Of course, the chairman's view is the most influential on the FOMC. But he cannot "compel" the other eleven to vote the way he wants as was common from Greenspan to Powell. This is independence is what Warsh refer…

I assume Warsh is sincere in getting rid of Forward Guidance (and as I have posted many times, I’m all for it), but then to have “Warsh adjacent” colleagues speculate (guess) to the FT to his thinking about next month’s meeting, is doing more to damage Fed/Warsh credibility than anything said, or not said, at last week’s presser. If Warsh does not get them to stop reading his mind to the financial press, he should make them “former people familiar with his thinking.”

I think that the FOMC has been doing it wrong for 40 years by allowing the Chair to be a dictator over the committee. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan don't do it this way. (ECB does not disclose its vote). ---- The committee now is 12 independent voters, with 12 different reaction functions. It should have always been this way, as it's a better approach. Monetary policy should be a consensus-building exercise, where everybody backs up their opinion with a vote, and not dictated by the staff and the chairman. --- Partial list of consequences of Chair/Staff driven Forward Guidance * Between 2003 and 2004, Greenspan said rates would…