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Gavin Baker: Anthropic Believes They Could Be the ONLY Company Left in the World “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.” @GavinSBaker: “Internally, Anthropic is very confident. I have been told by multiple people I trust that Dario has said that Anthropic might be the only private company in the world at some point. Think about that. In this vision, an Anthropic maximalist vision, there's Anthropic, and then there are governments, and that's it. So there's a lot of confidence. I'm sure they have more advanced checkpoints than Fable up their sleeve. They've executed really, really well. I would probably take the under on them being the only private company in the world. Yeah, I think it's gonna be a long time before they land a rocket.” @Jason: “Or they deliver your lunch. I don't know. There might be other businesses in the world. Zipline might want to bring you a burrito. Uber might want to take you somewhere. Waymo might want to drive you home. But sure, Dario.” @DavidSacks: “I might interpret that as a negative signal because it's so hubristic. This is getting into SBF land a little bit.” Gavin: “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”

theallinpod ↗

Two things can be true at once…. AI investments will end in a big bubble, but we are not there yet. See the image below. Grant thinks we are near the "peak of inflated expectations." Recent Gartner analysis puts agentic AI right at that peak, but I still think we have more of the curve to climb before we actually get there. I agree with Grant (and Gartner) that we’re on this curve — I’m just arguing about where we are on it. And yes, it could end up being the biggest bubble yet. We are in 1996 or 1997, not the spring of 2000. We Are Early About 5% of the corporate world is using the full potential of agentic AI. 85% to 90% are engaged with these tools and trying to figure out what they can actually do. I’m deep into using all these tools, and I’m still trying to fully understand them. But I can already see their massive power and how they will change everything in the next 2 to 4 years. I don’t think it will be as bad as most people worry. I think the net effect will be positive for employment and economic growth over time. That said, we’re about to go through a period of massive change, and change is always scary. Once these tools are better understood, that 5% usage will move toward 85%. At that point, we’ll realize that effective, usable compute and data center capacity is still too small for what’s coming. Hyperscalers are already spending hundreds of billions, but we’re not seeing the kind of overbuilding and low utilization that usually marks the top of these cycles. The real bubble comes when spending massively outpaces productive demand. We’re not there yet because the productive demand coming will be huge. How are we going to pay for all this? Worldwide, corporations already spend roughly $400–450 billion a year on SaaS. That’s thousands of dollars per corporate computer — often more than they spend on the hardware itself. A big chunk of that SaaS spending will likely get redirected or consolidated into AI. It’s similar to what happened with cameras, calculators, MP3 players, video recorders, maps, and alarm clocks — all of which eventually moved into the iPhone. AI agents should do something similar by consolidating a bunch of fragmented tools into a single intelligent interface. The future computer probably won’t need a keyboard most of the time. It will have a big context window, and you’ll mostly just tell it what you want. You won’t have to fight with a dozen different SaaS products trying to get them to talk to each other.

biancoresearch ↗