Jim Bianco

2/4 So it should be no surprise the BoJ will hike rates later today at its Monetary Policy meeting. As this chart shows. the market is pricing more than a 90% probability they will hike today. https://t.co/ayiAvVcyrC 3/4 And they are expected to aggressively hike throughout 2026. https://t.co/m0lK9QRYk7 4/4 Japan's inflation problem and aggressive rate hikes has its 10-year yield (blue) soaring. For the first time in 30 years, Japan is NOT the lowest 10-year yield in Asia. It's now China (red). The "sick economy" of Asia is no longer Japan, it's China. https://t.co/PA9bsmZGMw

History shows that nothing struggles like the business left behind to acquire a sports franchise.

Warsh has now overtaken Hassett to lead for next Fed Chairman. https://t.co/Boc1tVTN8V

Remember most of this is delayed data finally getting released. The Fed has cut 75 bps since September. This data will tell us if these cuts were justified, not what is coming next.

Last night the Chicago Blackhawks and the Detroit Redwings played. This was the only thing both fan bases could agree on.

This is a good interview. And, as the chart below shows, we have a horserace again for the next Fed Chairman. If you're interested in Warsh's views, this is worth a listen, https://t.co/XoAG8wjWzv

We might be a few minutes away from a new favorite to be the Fed Chairman. https://t.co/sXLylLfzQm

Dimon weighed in, and the betting for Fed Chairman is in chaos! JP MORGAN DIMON SAID WARSH 'WOULD MAKE A GREAT' FED CHAIR: BARRON'S DIMON SAYS HASSETT MOST LIKELY TO CUT RATES: BARRON'S https://t.co/M7DCguDLST

TIME Magazine's Person of the Year (PoY) is "The Architects of AI." PoY has a long history of being an excellent contrarian indicator when it has an investment theme. Q for @donnelly_brent Do we: * Sell the Mag 7 * Short the Mag 7 * Steal Money to short the Mag7 on leverage https://t.co/VeiesW9WT1 Why the POY works as a contrarian indicator -- The late Paul Montgomery of Universal Economics popularized the idea of TIME magazine covers as contrarian indicators. In this study, he notes that the Man of the Year, now called the Person of the Year (POY), has been a particularly good contrarian indicator. Not every POY has an investment implica…

Apparently, per this exclusive from the FT, the Fed Chairman race is not yet over, even though Trump strongly hinted it was over last month. The betting market is reacting. --- Trump today (from the FT) Trump addressed the Fed selection with journalists on Air Force One, after the Financial Times reported the final round of meetings. “We’re going to be looking at a couple different people, but I have a pretty good idea of who I want,” the president said. Trump last month: On Nov 18, 2025, Trump said in the Oval Office, “I think I already know my choice,” when asked about who would replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, while adding that he w…

As many as five of the 12 voting members of the Fed’s policy committee, and 10 of all 19 members, have signaled in speeches or public interviews that they didn’t see a strong case to cut.

Layoffs have been a central talking point in the economy and the Labor Market due to the Challenger Gray and Christmas layoff reports in October and November. These were ANNOUNCED layoffs that will occur in the future. Some of them could be through attrition (when employees quit and the job isn't filled). Also, because a company announces layoffs does not mean they will follow through on the entire amount. Often it is less than the announced amount. How about ACTUAL layoffs? The JOLTS report (Job Openings Labor Turnover) measures this. As this chart shows, October layoffs ("discharges") were NOT elevated, again, the same month the Challenge…

*US OCT. JOB OPENINGS 7.670M; EST. 7.117M Big jump in open jobs, biggest "beat" over the estimate since 2023 (due to deporting undocumented workers and advertising for replacements?) This measure says the number of open jobs is increasing. Why is the Fed cutting rates? https://t.co/ph85jc2Gn7

The US 10-year yield has been in a downtrend since May (highlighted). Now it looks more like a breakout. https://t.co/rVzSNwmvfi

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) are NOT smart money. They are giant pools of money managed by Gov't employees. Might as well take your investment advice from Trump. - The rolling 5-day SUM of IBIT flows (bottom) has not seen inflows since Oct 29 (Fed meeting!). SWF buyers offset. https://t.co/DeY9IwBJOO

For Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, it’s a signal that bond traders are worried that the Fed is cutting rates even as inflation remains stubbornly above its 2% target and the economy keeps defying recession fears.“ The market is really concerned about the policy,” said Bianco. “The concern is that the Fed has gone too far.”If the Fed continues to cut rates, the mortgage rates will go “vertical,” he added.

Trump posted this earlier this afternoon. He expects the Supreme Court to rule against Tariffs. https://t.co/tWFmz6Ry0X Betting markets think Trump will lose at the Supreme Court. https://t.co/yPYKSK6sLM My arguments: tl;dr: Trump loses the case, but nothing really changes. The court will rule that IEEPA (economic) tariffs are illegal (~$167B). But as Trump noted above, they can apply them as a sanction (punishment). Secondly, the court will have to rule on whether the IEEPA tariffs must be repaid. The argument is that the court will NOT. The court does not want to be the one to tank the economy potentially. So, they will argue that Con…

1/2 * Blue is the public's view of inflation expectations. It is very high. The Fed might describe it as "unanchored." * Orange is the outlook from bond traders. It remains "well contained" in Fed Speak. Powell includes this standard language near the beginning of every press conference. Here is the October 29, 2025, version. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Which measure should matter more to the Fed? We would argue the pu…

Trump's advisors are urgently telling the President to stop yelling at people about affordability/inflation ("it's a scam" or " a con") and take these concerns seriously. --- Problems with Trump shifting * It's not easy to fix. It will take time and harsh policies to bring inflation down to, say, 1% for a few years so that wages can catch up with the current price level. * CPI is up 27% since the end of the COVID recession (April 2020), the largest such rise in 40 years. The current price level is squeezing the American public, leaving them unhappy, which is hurting Trump's approval rating. Inflation leveling out at 3%, as YoY CPI was in Se…

(earlier today) *JPM CEO JAMIE DIMON SAYS EUROPE HAS A REAL PROBLEM *JPM CEO JAMIE DIMON SAYS EUROPE IS VERY BUREAUCRATIC *JPM CEO JAMIE DIMON SAYS WEAK EUROPE IS BAD FOR THE US He is not wrong. Europe's problems began in 2008; its response to the global financial crisis made it impossible to grow. The world passed them by. Now, Europe is such a mess that it can be argued it is dragging the world down. Europe (green) makes more rules, China (red) makes more GDP. Now, China is bigger (economically) than Europe. https://t.co/K8WVa2ljsN

1/5 Revisiting the repost below ...46% of the public said affordability is the worst they have ever seen. They are not wrong. What question were they answering? The last time CPI inflation rose this much over five years was almost 40 years ago. https://t.co/8w8CzzDWGb 2/5 The last time CPI had a similar rise to now (right arrow) was 1965 to 1973 (left arrow). The red part followed. Two things to note. * 1965 to 1973 is 8 years. The similar rise today took 5 years. * January 1973, the stock market was also at an all-time high. https://t.co/IQK7qLMxb6 3/5 Economists will scoff at this because they view inflation (orange) differently …

Long-suffering Chicago Bears fan here ... so now they have the best record in the NFC... Which of these two ways is the correct way to pronounce your support for the Bears? (both have exactly the same meaning) "Let's go, Bears!" "Green Bay Sucks"

@super_breakout for now???

Long-bond yield, highest since September 8th (red line) https://t.co/tHnPvZNTch

1/2 The repost stats are ANNOUNCEMENTS, not actual layoffs. They will occur over time and MAY be done through attrition (not filling jobs as people leave). Orange on this chart shows total layoffs, 1.2m, but ~25% were Gov't (DOGE), meaning the non-DOGE layoffs were 901K. https://t.co/mYnANFkXOb 2/2 Since April 2023 (the last 2 1/2 years), the rolling 12-month total of non-DOGE layoffs averaged 720k (dashed blue line). In Nov, it was 901K. This extra 181k above the average is 15k/month in extra ANNOUNCED layoffs. Is an extra 15K/month in layoffs above its recent average enough to cut the rate by 50 bps (Sept and Oct), and adding another 2…

Of the 153k job cuts in October roughly half were: 44k from Amazon as they automate their warehouse operations 15k was from Intel because they can’t compete with Nvidia 12.5k was from Dell If rates were cut to 6 months ago, these layoffs would’ve still occurred.

Investors yanked more than $2.7 billion from the exchange-traded fund over the five weeks to Nov. 28, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With an additional $113 million of redemptions on Thursday, the ETF is now on pace for a sixth straight week of net outflows.

Initial claims collapsed last week to a three-year low. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles this report, did not note any special factors. So, as I highlighted in red all year, the less-than-5-day workweeks distort this series. Last week was Thanksgiving. Previously, these short workweeks resulted in a spike in claims, but Thanksgiving week saw a collapse. Even if you adjust for this week for Thanksgiving, the data still doesn't suggest the Fed should cut rates next week.

From the repost below: The Fed MUST cut rates to "save" US consumers. More rate CUTS are coming into one of the hottest stock markets in history. Own assets or be left behind. -- Bankrate conducts a survey asking about the ability to cover a $1,000 emergency: Only 41% of Americans say they could pay for a $1,000 unexpected expense entirely from savings. 59% unable to do so without borrowing, selling something, or other means. -- 59% of the public (and maybe a lot more if Bankrate raised the threshold to $5k/$10k) cannot own assets because they don't have the means to buy them. So they believe that stocks soaring to save the economy not on…

Hassett (blue) has been wildly gyrating the last 48 hours (85% to 60% to 86% to 76%). Warsh (orange) has been trading inversely (7% to 17% to 5% to 18%). Below details an effort to get Trump to change his mind about Hassett. Only when Hassett trades below 50% is it serious. https://t.co/G76sxtvcyB