Jim Bianco

Trump … The halftime show sucks and is a slap in the face to the country with the best 401(k)s. https://t.co/S1HYUJDFxv

3:38 left in the third quarter … Total points = 12 Total punts = 12 Worst Super Bowl ever? The Patriots had 1 first down in the 3rd quarter… on a defensive penalty

@rashymagoo @CryptoNobler @CryptoHayes CME Large Speculators (non-commercials) are holding their largest net long position in months. https://t.co/b7IlCtA4fv

1/4 I fear this is spot on. @CryptoNobler's thread unpacks $BTC's "synthetic supply" problem. ETFs, structured notes (@CryptoHayes), futures, options, swaps, lending—all flood the system with "paper" BTC. When it swamps real demand, price crashes. https://t.co/zWfyxNlvrh 2/4 @CryptoHayes: structured notes on $IBIT flooded $BTC with synthetic supply → forced liquidations turbocharged the dump. Next rally? TradFi piles into ETFs → Wall Street "prints" more synthetics. Price discovery decoupled from on-chain. Volatility on steroids 3/4 Wall Street's entry turned BTC into a pseudo-fractional reserve system. 21M cap? On-chain only—pric…

Last sentence is key. Trump sees ~26% annualized to Dow 100k by 2029. If it fails, it won’t be the Fed’s fault for slow cuts — it’ll be the Supreme Court’s for (supposedly) killing tariffs on Feb 20. The Court becomes Trump’s new whipping boy, and Warsh is off the hook.

Silver is down 21% in the last 24 hours, and is now below last Friday's crash low. Why is this happening? When markets get chaotic and dysfunctional, the most vulnerable and most leveraged get taken out and killed first. This is somewhat analogous to the very early days of the pandemic. What were the markets that were killed first in early 2020? Not the ones that had anything to do with the primary driver (pandemic coming out of China), but the ones that were the most levered and the most vulnerable. For the last couple of months, that's been silver.

The $BTC carnage is accelerating. Now down 12+% today. Now the 4th worst day this decade. The other 3 were days around something "breaking." So, what is "breaking" now? Nov 9, 2022, FTX failure Jun 13, 2022, Terra Luna Collapse Mar 12, 2020, worst of COVID Shutdown https://t.co/fEJ4lzCX3k Look away, not pretty. The avg purchase price for a $BTC ETF is $90K, 41% underwater, or a $15B unrealized loss. Need ~ 50% rally to get back to breakeven! ETF hodlers (boomers) had diamond hands during the decline. But, does this serve to set up a coming capitation (puke)? https://t.co/YReSrNaZ0P It has been said that crypto is "programmable money."…

*BITCOIN FALLS BELOW $70,000 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE NOV. 6 2024 https://t.co/coh8BMleEl

Crypto is built on the principle of being permissionless; it's supposed to be a disruptive force to Tradfi. I believe in this mission. In many ways, Tradfi needs to be disrupted. This is why I bristled against **TradFi / Boomer Adoption** narrative. Asking permission from Larry Fink, Jay Powell (or Donald Trump) is everything crypto is NOT supposed to be. Thankfully this "asking permission" narrative died in November 2024 (see post below). The next leg won’t come from more suits blessing $BTC and telling tradfi to buy. I believe it should come from building systems that replace tradfi, and forcing them to join in or lose. Stop rationalizi…

@Nouriel October 11, 2018 ($BTC $6,250) Same argument

Back on oct 11, 2018 ($BTC $6,250) he wrote this “famous tweet,” near the low. Now he is back with the same argument at $70k. Into the darkness of breaking below $70k is some hope. https://t.co/sSzJN56p8F Same argument again at $18k in 2022.

Crashing back to Friday's low *SPOT SILVER DROPS BY AS MUCH AS 14%, ERASING TWO DAYS OF GAINS https://t.co/ydXnjoCJtS

Totally agree that the pricing-power-erosion angle is the real gut punch here, even if demand doesn't evaporate overnight. I've been thinking about this sell-off, and it reminds me a lot of what happened with Disney/ESPN back in August 2015. Bob Iger basically admitted on the earnings call that ESPN was seeing "some modest subscriber losses" due to cord-cutting trends. It wasn't apocalyptic—he called ESPN a "must-have" and said they were bullish on the bundle—but the market had this sudden epiphany: cable TV's subscriber base was in terminal decline, and it wasn't reversing. Stocks tanked hard (Disney dropped ~9% the next day), and yeah, the…

@EricBalchunas And cumulatively, spot $BTC ETFs have not seen NET new money for months and have experienced a steady "low grade" outflow (bottom panel). Buy when the low-grade outflow turns into a panic? https://t.co/So94bAtXwj

The Trump 2.0 $BTC rally has now been reversed. *BITCOIN DROPS TO LOWEST PRICE SINCE TRUMP’S ELECTION VICTORY The correction is now 41.5% since the October 6, 2025 high ($126k) https://t.co/ezP19mbnf4

Both scrape millions of prices from the internet, and they say prices are booming, the opposite reading of @truflation https://t.co/QjjRFMgEbD

Looks like we're doing this again! *BLS WILL DELAY RELEASE OF JAN. JOBS REPORT DUE TO GOVT SHUTDOWN --- The government shut down at midnight Saturday. They're hoping to pass the bill to reopen it today or tomorrow, but apparently, that is enough to get the BLS to delay Friday's release of the payroll report. I will assume it will be released next week... unless they screw up the reopening and it drags on for several days. Today is Groundhog's day. What a perfect day to have the story above!

No bounce... pickup up where we left off on Friday. *SPOT GOLD FALLS 5%, ADDING TO BIGGEST PLUNGE IN OVER A DECADE (Down 18% from Thursday's high) https://t.co/LUlsDZmTBi

1/2 Follow-up to the 🧵👇 Comments say that if 10% of $BTC is held by the Spot $BTC ETFs, this is good because they are diamond-handed institutions that will not sell. Avg size of ETF trades: SPY=$111.3K GLD=$87K $BTC ETFs=$15.8K $BTC ETFs = retail https://t.co/DGQtzl6vth https://t.co/QVS5xESLbH 2/2 Top Panel Daily flows into ALL $BTC ETFs. Outflows to 10 straight days (last inflow, Jan 15). New Record Trw (Mon), the mkt will react to an 8% decline since Friday's NYSE close. (11th day?) Bottom Panel Cumulative flows. Peaked in early Oct. Net seller for months. https://t.co/Xv1EbbHAnY

@bdznft They have been selling, already at a record, for 10 straight days and counting.

2/6 The 11 biggest spot $BTC ETFs now hold 1.29M $BTC – worth over $115B (Friday PM). These ETFs hold roughly 6.5% of all $BTC in circulation. The 3 largest – iShares’ $IBIT (blue), Fidelity’s $FBTC (red), and Grayscale’s $GBTC (orange) – hold 5.65%. https://t.co/TE1b3unN39 3/6 The 11 Spot $BTC ETFs average purchase price is ~$90.2K (blue), about $13K (16%) above the current price (bottom panel). Note these ETFs are collectively on a record 10 consecutive outflow days. $BTC is down ~8% since Friday's NYSE close. https://t.co/dlK9BlzSiL 4/6 Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy or $MSTR) hold 713K of $BTC (orange). When combined with the Sp…

Trump said this last night … Assuming that Warsh gets confirmed without complication, he will Chair his first Fed meeting on June 17. What if the Fed doesn’t cut rate at this meeting?!?

Will this complicate his nomination to be Fed chair? -- Kevin Warsh is named in the latest Epstein files release: * 2010 St. Barts Xmas guest list email * Dinner attendee hosted by British Aristocrat William Astor. No island visits or misconduct evidence.

1/4 The viral "19% discount" in $SLV is a timing artifact, not a broken product. The Official NAV is based on the London Fix (~7 AM ET). This means the official price missed the entire afternoon crash in the US futures market.🧵 https://t.co/1SaF2RhIB1 2/4 But the stress is still real. The chart below recalculates SLV's "fair value" at 4 PM ET using spot prices to eliminate the timing lag. When we do that, the "timing" 19% discount vanishes, revealing the real discount: -1.7%. @dampedspring @EricBalchunas @SantiagoAuFund https://t.co/ptOcMNoJb2 3/4 While -1.7% sounds small vs 19%, it is historically massive. This is the deepest liqu…

The Government is set to shut down at Midnight tonight. A deal was struck to end it on Monday when the House returns to vote. If this story is correct ... maybe not. Are you ready to take this ride again?

@supercatmy And the retweet is from Eric Balchanus the Bloomberg ETF expert, using a Bloomberg Chart

@judejinjin @Chickendaddy5 Oh, and the bottom of page 20 from the prospectus https://t.co/q24FcbcxSC

Yesterday's 19% discount to NAV broke the record set on 10/10/2008, the day the TARP was introduced during the Global Financial Crisis. Before Friday's collapse, SLV had about $60 billion in assets. The chart above shows that the silver market is now broken, meaning there is a high risk that a financial firm heavily involved in this market is either bankrupt (causing the large discount above) or in serious trouble (due to the large discount above). It doesn't mean we will automatically see a firm fail, but the silver market needs to correct itself quickly; otherwise, it probably will. Quickly correct itself = Monday or Tuesday. To be cle…

2/5 Yes, we saw a marginally higher high in Oct 2025 ($126k), but it was a "zombie rally." It looked like a breakout, but it was just residual momentum. The smart money riding the institutional adoption wave had begun exiting in Dec 2024. Stop chasing a ghost. https://t.co/ZxQDkJ7VCY 3/5 This explains why "good news" isn't moving the price. Kevin Warsh speaking? Walmart accepting crypto? Nice stories, but priced in months ago. Even old correlations—dollar debasement & tech stocks—are failing. The market has discounted the "adoption" story to zero. https://t.co/EZeVEmIrpt 4/5 Winter continues until a new narrative emerges. It won…

Bitcoin is now below $80k for the first time since April 7th. This was just a few days after the April 2nd "Liberation Day" collapse began, when markets were in full hyperventilation mode. $BTC https://t.co/icT7EUu2Jc