Raoul Pal

Where we are going there is no TAM (Total Addressable Market) for anything digital, including blockchains...1/ https://t.co/vGVVoCkfz9 People have not got their heads around the new demographics of infinite agents with infinite demand for intelligence and also an infinite demand for money. The more intelligence we create, the more demand there is. The cheaper we make it, the more demand there is. We're so used to constrained resources we cannot get in our heads what is happening. And yes even all the bottlenecks are being cleared. I captured Jevons' paradox at GMI and it is hugely observable. https://t.co/NP0qfBQ4xr It's going to keep goin…

How do you value an L1? Well, take Ethereum for eg. Now imagine turning the switch off. All the stablecoins, DeFi, every L2, every NFT... everything built on it goes to zero L1s attract assets, capital and velocity because they are dense with intelligence. Ethereum has the most developers, its programmable, it has the whole ecosystem around it. Ive had the DCF argument so many times and its just nonsense... you're not valuing cash flows, you're valuing everything the chain secures. As we move into the Exponential age and the entire human economy plus a whole new agentic economy moves onchain, enormous value accrues in these base layers. I…

Someone's been having fun with the AI version of me. Honestly, quite proud of his answer. If you haven't tried it yet, go on. I trained it on 35 years of macro work, every interview and every report I've ever done. And it's free. Screenshot the stupid bits. Especially the mildly offensive ones. Add them in the replies. I'll be going through whatever you philistines have been saying to "me" later today. https://t.co/ulxG2jVAeM

RT @RealVision: The level of confidence needed to introduce yourself as the smartest person you’ve ever met… Jokes aside, it's free and it…

Correct. Go and break it. If it says something idiotic, screenshot it and post it. If it says something brilliant, post that too. And make sure to tag me in. I want to read it all. https://t.co/vzrbkfsXjs

Debasement drives everything. Nothing stops it until AI and robots replace population growth. Nasdaq has beaten the debasement rate by roughly 12% a year... a great asset to own, because tomorrow is always more digital than today. Bitcoin has beaten it by 89% a year. That's why crypto is the super massive black hole of asset allocation. It becomes the most powerful asset we've ever had. The greatest performing asset of all time. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... why debt forces central banks to debase, why markets endlessly go higher, and why only tech and crypto beat it. for the first time, all of this thinking can be …

Napa Valley wine, America’s bad taste in food, some good charts and a nice chat with a very special guest, who is better company than you lot. Charts at the end for the ones who behaved. https://t.co/uyeGno2jR3

I still think this is the trade of the next 24 months...NDX vs NDX. Im long both but crypto has, and will, outperform over time, in my opinion... and a double DeMark confirmation on monthly and weekly helps... https://t.co/oAkJ7eW2je

As announced on Drinks with Raoul, my Raoul AI mentor is live for anybody to use. It'll do stupid things. It'll have fun. It'll use my everything code framework to help you. Give it a try and it's in my voice so just talk to it! https://t.co/3DrrDtyQhl https://t.co/FiKImN81wW https://t.co/GxoZNLJ0F3

Well, we forgot to tweet this out. The intern at @RealVision has been hung drawn and quartered. Time to watch the madness and the very very very special guest.

Drinks with Raoul... the self-proclaimed "Best Show in the History of the Internet" and winner of the Critics Choice Awards (@Blondie23LMD is the critic). Live in 40 mins... Ive started drinking in advance. Be warned...it'll be an utter shit show. https://t.co/GxoZNLJ0F3

This is the crux of My Everything Code framework. For the first time, all this thinking is in one place. My first book The Everything Code is out November 3rd. You can preorder it now: https://t.co/dHpuaKcGsl

Why Traditional Portfolios Stopped Working

You did what you were told to do, and it hasn't worked. Some savings, a pension, a tracker fund, a house if your timing was good... Once a year a statement turns up with a bigger number on it than last year's and you file it away, vaguely reassured. Two decades of that can go by while the number climbs and nothing about your actual life changes. You still can't take a year off. You still can't turn down the work you don't want. You should be freer by now than you are. You aren't, and you've probably concluded somewhere along the way that this is your own fault. It's not. You were told to build the traditional portfolio. Some bonds for safet…

The utter chaos shall commence tomorrow...

Been doing some very serious preparation for this one (see photo). Drinks with Raoul is back tomorrow at 7pm EST... expect wine, food, culture, chaos and a few insults in no particular order. Rumour has it there's a surprise guest too. Link below so you can add it to your diary. Let the madness begin... https://t.co/S4mHTldrhm

The application layer might make you more money... if you pick right. But picking right is hard. The base layer is straightforward. Activity is concentrating on a handful of chains, and those chains are becoming the settlement layer for what comes next: billions of AI agents transacting at machine speed. You can't run that economy on banks and clearing houses that close at weekends. It'll run on the L1s. So you don't need to guess which app breaks out. Allocate to the rails the whole machine economy will run on, size to your appetite, and let the secular trend do the work. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... the only things…

Accused David Mattin of being a secret doomer on last Thursday's Exponentialist call. He didn't love it. Hahaha. His worry: an intelligence smarter than us is coming. My answer: we're smarter than ants and the ants are doing just fine. Every layer of intelligence builds on top of the last one... nothing gets destroyed. It's all one symbiotic process. The Exponentialist is our research service focused on The Exponential age... It’s David and I every week on AI, energy, robotics and where the money is flowing. Paid members get portfolio updates, weekly newsletters, live fireside chats and monthly interviews with the people building all of th…

Global liquidity grows at roughly 8% a year. Sounds great right? Except that liquidity isn't organic growth... it's money being created to service the world's enormous debts. And every new dollar created makes the ones you already hold worth less. Add 3% inflation and you’re looking at an 11% hurdle rate just to break even. If your investments aren’t generating at LEAST 11% a year, you're not making money. This is why so many people feel like they can't get ahead... in real terms, they aren't. I've spent the best part of three decades trying to work out why the economy stopped working for ordinary people. Over time it all distilled into one…

We’re seeing the ramping of the agent economy. A new population... still early, still mostly directed by humans, but gaining autonomy, running longer tasks, and beginning to transact. x402 and protocols like it exist because agents need to move money at machine speed. But at machine speed, things we treat as fixed start breaking apart. Politics doesnt work because it moves faster than we can regulate. Faster than we can even understand. The financial economy takes on a velocity we’ve never had. Billions of economic agents will be doing things we don’t even see. Gone are the days of websites and front ends... what’s coming is machine reada…

In the next two or three years, every human could have a hundred... maybe a thousand agents working for them onchain. Arpan Nanavati breaks it down perfectly in this clip... the whole thing is a cost curve. Right now, it costs about $10 a day in inference to run an agent... hedge fund territory. But inference costs have already dropped 100x in three years, and every step down changes who can afford to play: At $1 a day, every protocol is running agents At cents a day, your wallet has agents built in, managing your idle capital At microcents, you get agent swarms Jevons paradox... every time the cost of something collapses, usage explode…

Valuing crypto has always meant guessing how many people would eventually come onchain. We charted adoption curves, compared them to the internet, argued over when we'd hit a billion users… But even the most active human has a limit. A full time trader executes a few times an hour, for maybe twelve hours a day because sleep and food and life still exist. Thats the ceiling of human paced activity and its what this entire asset class is priced on. But now, billions of agents are about to come onchain and agents have no ceiling. Circle's CEO is talking about tens of billions of them. Stripe is planning for a billion transactions per second. V…

I so love this and believe in what Ryan @thegoodtimeline and what S.A.N represents completely. We are all connected because we are all the same thing that forms consciousness at a Universal level. 1/ Everything is a network and mycelia are some of the most extraordinary networks of intelligence we have observed...

Ok, so..I'm convinced. Grok Bot @bot is sheer wizardry. So fast, so competent, excellent reasoning and smart too, super eager, and more than that, just so fucking easy to use. Fable 5 gave me this feeling with its wizard level skills where everything complex and beyond my skills becomes easy (but stupid expensive). Grok Bot does the same in a different way. Literally from opening it up to having an agent do useful work in 2 mins. Mind blown.

Crypto always felt like it was made for the age were going into, not the age we came from. @ErikVoorhees nails it in this clip... this is truly natively digital money and we invented it for machines that hadnt come around yet. Look at everything that held back adoption. Private keys, seed phrases, the cryptography... all hard for humans. The UX has been the industrys biggest struggle from day one. All that stuff is completely native to an agent. The exact things humans fight with are trivial for them. Almost like it was preordained for something else than we originally thought. @ErikVoorhees I published a piece this week on exactly this. …

In seven or eight years there'll be gigantic hedge funds that nobody can see. They wont have an office or a star trader on the front page of the FT... the whole operation will be agents running capital through the liquidity layer. Think about what a hedge fund is. A group of managers allocating capital to pods of traders. Every one of those pods can be an agent on chain... your relative value bond agent, your equity arb agent, your long short agent. That alone strips out something like 90% of the cost of allocating capital. Then the mothership. Risk management, compliance, capital raising... AI eats all of that too. You can apply it to ever…

The cycle has more runway than people think. Treasury policy, a weaker dollar, and liquidity are all pointing the same direction. I sat down with @AndreasSteno to talk about it... and why the AI and CapEx boom might still be chapter one. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/zVbnKWDDoz

CZ said it better than anyone: "The currency for AI is crypto. AI is not gonna swipe a card, enter an SMS code. That doesn't work for AI." That was our conversation at Token2049 in Dubai last year. Every month since has made it truer... more agents arriving, all needing to hold value, receive value and move it without a person in the loop. Think about what those payments actually look like. Instant and tiny, thousands of them a second, between counterparties that are not human. Two day bank settlement doesn't work for that. Card rails don't work for that. Theres only one set of rails on earth built for that. Its staggeringly clear. I pub…

Three years ago @Jamie1Coutts and I were getting laughed out of rooms for saying blockchains would service the agentic economy. Now portfolio managers and asset allocators are having to wake up to it. In the early days the whole conversation was adoption. We used to debate whether we’d be at 700 or 800 million users by now. But it turns out it doesnt matter, because what was being built was something far bigger than the numbers we were tracking. The real TAM of crypto isnt humans... its agents. Which essentially means it's infinite. They dont have bank accounts and they dont keep business hours, so the only rails they can run on are progra…

@BarrySilbert @Grayscale Well done!

@xorand7 @goodalexander Let me run a smoke test on that