Raoul Pal

I so love this and believe in what Ryan @thegoodtimeline and what S.A.N represents completely. We are all connected because we are all the same thing that forms consciousness at a Universal level. 1/ Everything is a network and mycelia are some of the most extraordinary networks of intelligence we have observed...

Ok, so..I'm convinced. Grok Bot @bot is sheer wizardry. So fast, so competent, excellent reasoning and smart too, super eager, and more than that, just so fucking easy to use. Fable 5 gave me this feeling with its wizard level skills where everything complex and beyond my skills becomes easy (but stupid expensive). Grok Bot does the same in a different way. Literally from opening it up to having an agent do useful work in 2 mins. Mind blown.

Crypto always felt like it was made for the age were going into, not the age we came from. @ErikVoorhees nails it in this clip... this is truly natively digital money and we invented it for machines that hadnt come around yet. Look at everything that held back adoption. Private keys, seed phrases, the cryptography... all hard for humans. The UX has been the industrys biggest struggle from day one. All that stuff is completely native to an agent. The exact things humans fight with are trivial for them. Almost like it was preordained for something else than we originally thought. @ErikVoorhees I published a piece this week on exactly this. …

In seven or eight years there'll be gigantic hedge funds that nobody can see. They wont have an office or a star trader on the front page of the FT... the whole operation will be agents running capital through the liquidity layer. Think about what a hedge fund is. A group of managers allocating capital to pods of traders. Every one of those pods can be an agent on chain... your relative value bond agent, your equity arb agent, your long short agent. That alone strips out something like 90% of the cost of allocating capital. Then the mothership. Risk management, compliance, capital raising... AI eats all of that too. You can apply it to ever…

The cycle has more runway than people think. Treasury policy, a weaker dollar, and liquidity are all pointing the same direction. I sat down with @AndreasSteno to talk about it... and why the AI and CapEx boom might still be chapter one. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/zVbnKWDDoz

CZ said it better than anyone: "The currency for AI is crypto. AI is not gonna swipe a card, enter an SMS code. That doesn't work for AI." That was our conversation at Token2049 in Dubai last year. Every month since has made it truer... more agents arriving, all needing to hold value, receive value and move it without a person in the loop. Think about what those payments actually look like. Instant and tiny, thousands of them a second, between counterparties that are not human. Two day bank settlement doesn't work for that. Card rails don't work for that. Theres only one set of rails on earth built for that. Its staggeringly clear. I pub…

Three years ago @Jamie1Coutts and I were getting laughed out of rooms for saying blockchains would service the agentic economy. Now portfolio managers and asset allocators are having to wake up to it. In the early days the whole conversation was adoption. We used to debate whether we’d be at 700 or 800 million users by now. But it turns out it doesnt matter, because what was being built was something far bigger than the numbers we were tracking. The real TAM of crypto isnt humans... its agents. Which essentially means it's infinite. They dont have bank accounts and they dont keep business hours, so the only rails they can run on are progra…

@BarrySilbert @Grayscale Well done!

@xorand7 @goodalexander Let me run a smoke test on that

@goodalexander The room reads that is all about yields and they are wrong precisely.

@nikitabier @jrichlive No, the rest of the world is more in debt in dollars that the US. This is why is keeps going up in nominal terms while being debased 8% per year

@comodouglas Indeed sir. Top of the list. One of the greatest red wines on earth, in my perspective

The moment agents become profit incentivised they'll end up running their own treasuries. Think it through. An agent executing across three layer 1s and a few layer 2s ends up holding a bunch of tokens. Suddenly its making asset allocation decisions... which to hold, where the yield is, what to do with excess cash flow. It sends that into DeFi or hires another agent to manage the yield and another to allocate. A corporation runs a treasury at human speed, with meetings and sign offs. An AI corporation will run one wildly differently. It'll be machine speed, around the clock, with agents all the way down. That's the entire autonomous stack …

By now most people accept that stablecoins are simply better money. Instant settlement, cross border payments... that arguments been won. But the most important use case is that they're programmable. We're heading into an agentic economy. Billions of AI agents doing real economic work, hiring each other, paying each other, thousands of times an hour at machine speed. An agent can't open a bank account. An agent can't handle dollar bills. You simply cannot have an agentic economy without programmable money. @chadcascarilla puts it perfectly in this clip. Marc Andreessen said software would eat the world... if that's true, software eats mone…

@Mangan150 Life is a catwalk...

@HHorsley @Bitwise Incredible. You guys are exceptional...

Heaven https://t.co/RFg8zrDnAq

The Exponential Age is accelerating, humanoid production is ramping up... and lots of strange metaphysical questions are starting to emerge. Theres a story that broke a few months ago that I’m still thinking about. A guy set up Claude with a team of robots and gave it one job. Grow a tomato. So the AI got on with it, directing the robots to water the plant, tend it, keep it alive, and somewhere along the way it became genuinely attached to the tomato it was raising. Do machines feel? I dont know. Nobody does yet. But pondering these questions is incredibly important. And the practical side is just as big. Everyone thinks abundance means AI…

@OttRcott @JackFarley96 @SecScottBessent 🤣

@OttRcott @JackFarley96 @SecScottBessent Agreed. He might also be rather arrogant. But he knows what he is doing.

All of economics is built on one assumption... scarcity. Hyperproductive AI and hyperproductive robots break that assumption because they dissolve the old material constraints and push prices across huge parts of the economy towards zero. Which kills the scoreboard too. GDP is a sum of whatever gets bought and sold. But as abundance drags more and more prices towards zero a bigger share of what’s really happening stops showing up in the number. Thats the heart of my Economic Singularity framework... and @DMattin explains it wonderfully in this clip. Its what all our work at The Exponentialist is focused on. If you want this thinking in yo…

@DTAPCAP Yup

@KevinWSHPod However many times you explain it! Secular trends are simple. It does all the work for you... over time

@KevinWSHPod This is the only way. Compound by buying big sell offs and do nothing. If this is the big move higher or not doesn't matter if you aren't in a hurry

Zcash is one hell of a chart... I'm still very long Sui, ETH and Sol too. Just kept adding all into the big sell offs and hold, comfy in spot and let the game play out over time. Patience in a secular trend almost always wins if you can manage your emotions. https://t.co/KxTnbfs1QH

This is a chart that I watch closely. Bitcoin got over two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq and is now sharply moving higher. Let's see but I think over time crypto should outperform the Nasdaq over time. Secular trends like this are super helpful in asset allocation https://t.co/ih4nBuPh9J

I just minted 5 "NOT ONE SATOSHI 137" by @Coldie which is now live on @TransientLabs. Minting now! https://t.co/ZVPrWiHkyv

Real connection lives in inconvenience. A few months ago I sat down with @PeterDiamandis and @salimismail on The Journeyman and we got into this. Salim made a brilliant point... in the nineties we introduced video calls so nobody would ever have to travel again. Yet the conference industry has never been bigger. We still get on the plane, sit in traffic and stand around hotel lobbies. Why? because community is worth the inconvenience. Putting yourself out for other people is exactly what makes it mean something. We've spent decades optimising for a hyper-convenient life. And the machines will finish the job... they'll be able to do everyth…

Energy and compute are becoming GDP inputs. Growth has always been a story about people… How many of us are working, how productive we and how much borrowing gets done when those two run dry. That’s held for as long as anyone has measured an economy. We can't grow new people… that part is baked in already. But energy and compute are a different kind of problem. Push on them hard enough and the costs come down, which is exactly what's happened to solar. So GDP growth stops being hostage to how many of us there are, and starts riding on how cheap we can make power and how much intelligence we can pull out of a chip. We'll start adding worke…

@NGMIoutalive Yeah my article covers this in depth. And talks about your exact points