Raoul Pal

This year the hyperscalers started spending more than their cash flow and issuing debt to cover the gap. That sounds like the beginning of the end... but it isn't. They're borrowing because speed in this race is EVERYTHING. He who gets the most compute wins... They have to borrow or else they'd fall behind. They literally cannot stop. The first one to blink loses the whole game, and they all know it. I wrote the whole thing up this week... why the buildout cannot stop, where the money comes from, and where it's all heading. Linked below. https://t.co/Wvtk8jSwRl

Yesterday I wrote about why the AI buildout can't stop. Then I put the same question to the AI version of myself to see how it'd handle it. Everything I've published across 35 years of doing this, every framework I've ever developed is now in one place you can talk to. It knows my Everything Code framework inside out. It knows my Exponential Age framework. You can ask it about liquidity, ask it about AI, crypto, robotics, energy, my favourite holiday I've ever been on... whatever you want. And it answers the way I would. The bit that matters is you're no longer stuck with whatever I happened to write about this week. Pick any topic, go as…

I asked the AI version of myself how much you need to earn each year just to stand still. It said 11%... roughly 8% from currency debasement, 3% from inflation, and then walked through exactly what does and doesn't clear the hurdle. My Everything Code framework, straight back at me. Wild. It's trained my entire body of work and it knows all of my frameworks inside out. You can ask it anything, any time, and it answers the way I would. Try to catch it out. Bring your best. try it out here. It's free: https://t.co/M2N3z9qTP4

My book, The Everything Code, is coming out in November. Its everything I've been trying to explain for years in one place... debt, debasement, liquidity, why the world feels broken, and how to position yourself for the biggest wave of change in human history. It's available on preorder now, and this week theres a way to get it cheaper: Barnes & Noble are running 25% off all preorders until Friday. Sign up for a free B&N Rewards account, preorder the book, and use the code PREORDER25 at checkout. Thats it. https://t.co/slUPQLbqUD

What would happen if, say, OpenAI went bust? The doomers will say that's the minute the "bubble" pops. But Google or Microsoft would just buy all of their compute the next morning. Now they've got double the GPUs and they're further ahead than they were the day before. David made a great point in this clip... People keep confusing a financial event with the technology. If someone blows up, the infrastructure doesn't vanish, it just changes hands, and whoever ends up with it will have a lead nobody can close. A bankruptcy wouldn't slow the buildout... it would actually feed it. I've written the whole thing up today, on why the AI buildout …

The all new moline app is really very good... if you havent used it yet, give it a go. Also a good way to discover Real Vision... its free to join and check it out

I've been saying this for a while: the Great Race is the most important race of all time and the biggest. Nobody is allowed to win and nobody can afford to lose. Everyone is ALL IN and at ALL COSTS.

Data centers are roughly 30% built versus where they should be by now. The US and China are in a race nobody is allowed to lose. And no single frontier AI lab can be allowed to win... it's too dangerous. Put that together and there is almost no way this isn't a supercycle. Even the bottlenecks accelerate it because bottleneck doesn't stop the build out, it demands MORE expenditure... more power, more infrastructure, more capex. We're looking at the largest capex cycle humanity has ever seen. This is The Exponential Age playing out in real time. The Exponential Age is one of the three pillars of my book, The Everything Code, out Nov 3rd. P…

Turns out I'm not very good at sponsorship readouts... especially when the sponsor is my own book. The Everything Code is on preorder now. The link is below. That's all. Thank you. https://t.co/s8NRzjQfok Preorders open here: https://t.co/dHpuaKcGsl

I stand by every word of it. https://t.co/nKNG1Xn5Z8

This is the world we're going into.

Where we are going there is no TAM (Total Addressable Market) for anything digital, including blockchains...1/ https://t.co/vGVVoCkfz9 People have not got their heads around the new demographics of infinite agents with infinite demand for intelligence and also an infinite demand for money. The more intelligence we create, the more demand there is. The cheaper we make it, the more demand there is. We're so used to constrained resources we cannot get in our heads what is happening. And yes even all the bottlenecks are being cleared. I captured Jevons' paradox at GMI and it is hugely observable. https://t.co/NP0qfBQ4xr It's going to keep goin…

How do you value an L1? Well, take Ethereum for eg. Now imagine turning the switch off. All the stablecoins, DeFi, every L2, every NFT... everything built on it goes to zero L1s attract assets, capital and velocity because they are dense with intelligence. Ethereum has the most developers, its programmable, it has the whole ecosystem around it. Ive had the DCF argument so many times and its just nonsense... you're not valuing cash flows, you're valuing everything the chain secures. As we move into the Exponential age and the entire human economy plus a whole new agentic economy moves onchain, enormous value accrues in these base layers. I…

Someone's been having fun with the AI version of me. Honestly, quite proud of his answer. If you haven't tried it yet, go on. I trained it on 35 years of macro work, every interview and every report I've ever done. And it's free. Screenshot the stupid bits. Especially the mildly offensive ones. Add them in the replies. I'll be going through whatever you philistines have been saying to "me" later today. https://t.co/ulxG2jVAeM

Correct. Go and break it. If it says something idiotic, screenshot it and post it. If it says something brilliant, post that too. And make sure to tag me in. I want to read it all. https://t.co/vzrbkfsXjs

Debasement drives everything. Nothing stops it until AI and robots replace population growth. Nasdaq has beaten the debasement rate by roughly 12% a year... a great asset to own, because tomorrow is always more digital than today. Bitcoin has beaten it by 89% a year. That's why crypto is the super massive black hole of asset allocation. It becomes the most powerful asset we've ever had. The greatest performing asset of all time. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... why debt forces central banks to debase, why markets endlessly go higher, and why only tech and crypto beat it. for the first time, all of this thinking can be …

Napa Valley wine, America’s bad taste in food, some good charts and a nice chat with a very special guest, who is better company than you lot. Charts at the end for the ones who behaved. https://t.co/uyeGno2jR3

I still think this is the trade of the next 24 months...NDX vs NDX. Im long both but crypto has, and will, outperform over time, in my opinion... and a double DeMark confirmation on monthly and weekly helps... https://t.co/oAkJ7eW2je

As announced on Drinks with Raoul, my Raoul AI mentor is live for anybody to use. It'll do stupid things. It'll have fun. It'll use my everything code framework to help you. Give it a try and it's in my voice so just talk to it! https://t.co/3DrrDtyQhl https://t.co/FiKImN81wW https://t.co/GxoZNLJ0F3

Well, we forgot to tweet this out. The intern at @RealVision has been hung drawn and quartered. Time to watch the madness and the very very very special guest.

Drinks with Raoul... the self-proclaimed "Best Show in the History of the Internet" and winner of the Critics Choice Awards (@Blondie23LMD is the critic). Live in 40 mins... Ive started drinking in advance. Be warned...it'll be an utter shit show. https://t.co/GxoZNLJ0F3

Your money is being diluted faster than you think. Once you count it, you need about 11% a year just to stand still. Very little in a traditional portfolio clears that. https://t.co/dWM9DrPrZ7 This is the crux of My Everything Code framework. For the first time, all this thinking is in one place. My first book The Everything Code is out November 3rd. You can preorder it now: https://t.co/dHpuaKcGsl

The utter chaos shall commence tomorrow...

Been doing some very serious preparation for this one (see photo). Drinks with Raoul is back tomorrow at 7pm EST... expect wine, food, culture, chaos and a few insults in no particular order. Rumour has it there's a surprise guest too. Link below so you can add it to your diary. Let the madness begin... https://t.co/S4mHTldrhm

The application layer might make you more money... if you pick right. But picking right is hard. The base layer is straightforward. Activity is concentrating on a handful of chains, and those chains are becoming the settlement layer for what comes next: billions of AI agents transacting at machine speed. You can't run that economy on banks and clearing houses that close at weekends. It'll run on the L1s. So you don't need to guess which app breaks out. Allocate to the rails the whole machine economy will run on, size to your appetite, and let the secular trend do the work. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... the only things…

Accused David Mattin of being a secret doomer on last Thursday's Exponentialist call. He didn't love it. Hahaha. His worry: an intelligence smarter than us is coming. My answer: we're smarter than ants and the ants are doing just fine. Every layer of intelligence builds on top of the last one... nothing gets destroyed. It's all one symbiotic process. The Exponentialist is our research service focused on The Exponential age... It’s David and I every week on AI, energy, robotics and where the money is flowing. Paid members get portfolio updates, weekly newsletters, live fireside chats and monthly interviews with the people building all of th…

Global liquidity grows at roughly 8% a year. Sounds great right? Except that liquidity isn't organic growth... it's money being created to service the world's enormous debts. And every new dollar created makes the ones you already hold worth less. Add 3% inflation and you’re looking at an 11% hurdle rate just to break even. If your investments aren’t generating at LEAST 11% a year, you're not making money. This is why so many people feel like they can't get ahead... in real terms, they aren't. I've spent the best part of three decades trying to work out why the economy stopped working for ordinary people. Over time it all distilled into one…

We’re seeing the ramping of the agent economy. A new population... still early, still mostly directed by humans, but gaining autonomy, running longer tasks, and beginning to transact. x402 and protocols like it exist because agents need to move money at machine speed. But at machine speed, things we treat as fixed start breaking apart. Politics doesnt work because it moves faster than we can regulate. Faster than we can even understand. The financial economy takes on a velocity we’ve never had. Billions of economic agents will be doing things we don’t even see. Gone are the days of websites and front ends... what’s coming is machine reada…

In the next two or three years, every human could have a hundred... maybe a thousand agents working for them onchain. Arpan Nanavati breaks it down perfectly in this clip... the whole thing is a cost curve. Right now, it costs about $10 a day in inference to run an agent... hedge fund territory. But inference costs have already dropped 100x in three years, and every step down changes who can afford to play: At $1 a day, every protocol is running agents At cents a day, your wallet has agents built in, managing your idle capital At microcents, you get agent swarms Jevons paradox... every time the cost of something collapses, usage explode…

Valuing crypto has always meant guessing how many people would eventually come onchain. We charted adoption curves, compared them to the internet, argued over when we'd hit a billion users… But even the most active human has a limit. A full time trader executes a few times an hour, for maybe twelve hours a day because sleep and food and life still exist. Thats the ceiling of human paced activity and its what this entire asset class is priced on. But now, billions of agents are about to come onchain and agents have no ceiling. Circle's CEO is talking about tens of billions of them. Stripe is planning for a billion transactions per second. V…