Raoul Pal

wow...40 million TPS for sui:native

This is what AI building AI looks like when it leaves the screen. Back in March I sat down with @MartinDeVido, the guy who handed Claude a tomato plant and let it run the lights, the water and the sensors on its own. But its not one Claude. Its a team of them, each with a job. The one running the grow tent decides it needs a sensor it doesnt have, so it hands the spec to a circuit design Claude. A shopping Claude orders the parts. Martin mills it, assembles it and plugs it back into the system, which now has a sensor it designed for itself. He calls it the living factory. The loop already runs from idea to physical object, with a human do…

The cost of intelligence is collapsing. The cost of energy is collapsing. The cost of a token, the cost of a watt, the amount of intelligence you get out of every unit of energy... all of it is falling at once. And cheaper is what makes the whole thing go exponential. Jevons paradox... make something cheaper and the world finds a thousand new uses for it. Every time intelligence gets cheaper, we use more of it, which pays for the next round of getting cheaper. Wrights Law and Metcalfes Law running into each other. We're at the very start of that and AI is already building AI... Play it forward a few turns of the wheel and the speed of it …

Claude built Claude. The current model now does most of the work of building the next one, and the next one will do more of the work on the one after that... Once that process runs on its own it hyper accelerates, because the slowest part of the loop has always been us. Emad takes it to the obvious place. How do you outcompete a company that runs entirely on agents? You dont. Cognitively the human on the team goes from the asset to the bottleneck, and thats before the models get any better, which they are, every few weeks at an ever-increasing pace. Scary if you read it as you versus the machine. But it isnt a competition... Every time too…

This is a big deal and urgently needed

15 years of my X feed. Every interview I've ever done. Everything I've written on Real Vision. All of it now lives in one AI... and it talks in my voice. You can call it and ask what I'm thinking about this, or how you should think about that, or what this Everything Code actually is and how it works. It answers the way I would, pulling from everything Ive ever said. Intelligence used to be scarce... something you booked a meeting for. Now you can pick up the phone and talk to it whenever you like. That's The Exponential Age arriving in the most personal way possible. So go to https://t.co/yFk2cbGRvE and talk to me. Its free, its fun, and …

One month today. The Everything Code comes out on November 3rd and I've got a favour to ask. Ive spent 35 years trying to figure out how the world works... why the rules your parents lived by stopped working and why no matter how hard you work the gap keeps widening. Its not bad luck. It's debt, demographics and the debasement of money. The book is everything I've learned about those forces. Why the system broke, what the central banks did about it, and what comes next... which is the Exponential Age, and its going to be the most disruptive and the most exciting thing any of us live through. Most of you know this stuff already. But the pe…

I love this chart. In 1993 the German electricity companies said renewables could never supply more than 4% of the country's power... that was the ceiling. Last year they supplied 55.9%. Fourteen times the ceiling. It's the psychology of incumbents meeting exponential change. They extrapolate from the flat part of the curve, and the ceiling turns out to be a speed bump. Same story in EVs, in crypto, in AI... Impossible, then inevitable. I wrote a long form on this this week... why the same thing is about to happen to the energy supply for AI, and why solar is the only source that arrives in time: https://t.co/8flRdDtBt1

Jet lag with 13 hours time difference doesn't get any easier...

Data centres are going to eat all the electricity and you'll be left eating stale bread in the street, begging for the water they use... Thats the political narrative building right now and every part of that gets the direction wrong. Agents are billions of new economic participants added on top of us. They run 24/7 at silicon speed, and every one of them is demanding something... data, compute, storage, energy, tokens. Demand is about to go through the roof. That is the Economic Singularity... synthetic labour removing the old limits on growth, and GDP as we measure it stops meaning anything. The real fear underneath is that somebody els…

China added more solar last year than the entire worlds standing stock of solar. This is Wright's Law doing what it always does... every time cumulative production doubles, the cost falls by a fixed percentage. Solar has sat on that curve for decades. China just poured scale into it. So the cost of creating energy is collapsing. Meanwhile compute costs are collapsing too. The per token cost of intelligence is on its own Wright's Law curve. The input, energy, and the output, intelligence, are both falling in cost at once... a double exponential. Cheaper energy makes cheaper compute. Cheaper compute makes more intelligence, which makes energ…

Singapore next week... talking all things Exponential Age on the @token2049 main stage. Come say hi.

The next crypto cycle won't be driven by humans. It'll be driven by billions of AI agents transacting 24/7. I sat down with @cryptomanran to explore why this is the first real bull market, and why the convergence of AI and blockchain is the bigger opportunity. As ever, please enjoy!

Everyone's worried AI is going to eat the world's electricity... I think they've got the ending wrong. The most powerful companies on earth need more power than exists, and there's only one way they can build it fast enough. https://t.co/GgiZHPNr7i

@EMostaque Thanks mate

Energy is the binding constraint on AI. Everybody agrees on that. What people aren't realising is that energy is on its own exponential, and right now it isnt even the thing holding the buildout back. The hyperscalers are forecast to spend around $600bn on capex this year, a buildout on the scale of the railroads. People look at that number and shout bubble. But they arent building on hope, theyre building against a backlog... there is more demand for this than there is infrastructure to serve it, and the capital to build it is abundant. David and I dig into all of this every month in our research service, The Exponentialist... energy, AI, …

Emad is a good friend and one of the people I've learned the most from on AI, so having him say this about The Everything Code means a lot. Thanks @EMostaque Small ask... if youre planning to pick up a copy, consider pre-ordering it rather than waiting. Pre-orders count towards the rankings, and rankings are what put the book in front of people who've never heard of me. Ive put an enormous amount of work into this, and I think it can help a lot of people... You'll get it on launch day, and it makes a real difference to me. Thanks! @EMostaque Here is the link to preorder from Amazon (and avail of the preorder price): https://t.co/VgOhAanzsk…

Interesting to see the huge doomspreading here on AI and bond yields. Getting close to a lot of interesting opportunities ...

Me, asking a machine that learned to think from me, whether machines can think. Strange loop, that. But I wanted to test it properly. A more abstract philosophical question, to see if it reasons the way I would. I asked it whether AI needs subjective experience to count as sentient... and it actually pushed back on the question entirely. We cant measure subjective experience in humans either. We just assume other people have it because they look like us. So using it as the test for machines is trying to measure something unmeasurable. What you can actually observe is reasoning, creativity... outputs that surprise the people who built them…

@kimmonismus Its absurdly good and ludicrously efficient

Did you know you can send screenshots of your timeline to AI me and get its take? Sent it this Kobeissi post on central banks buying way more gold than they report... this is what came back. You already have Grok on here and its brilliant at telling you what the internet thinks about something. This does something different. Its read every word Ive published (publicly), it knows my frameworks inside out, and it will look at whatever youre looking at and tell you how I would read it. Works with charts and PDFs as well as posts. Ive started doing it as I scroll... something catches my eye, screenshot, send, and I get the read in a few secon…

@_The_Prophet__ Cheap global capital is being replaced by exponential intelligence...

@mjr029 I mean I'm finding it extraordinary and everything and it barely uses any cost whatsoever. I've got it running on Ultra Code on some motion graphics stuff. I've got it running on Extra and it's super cheap and amazing so I've used Fable a fraction in comparison now.

@_imagyn No

@DevEngineOz Fair assessment

Opus 5.5 is absurdly good. What on earth will Fable 5.5 be like? Im beginning to not get my head around it any more...AGI.

@AshBennington It correctly identified a bend of a river in the remotest part of Zambia, where maybe 100 tourists a year go. I took a photograph and said, "Where am I?" and it nailed it: North Luangwa.

@Nicosdan1 There is

@simon_clowes Thanks so much!

@kostascrypto Amazing!!! Yes please. It's a really good book for students and halls guide them how to think about preparing for the future