Kevin Paffrath

🚨 An Open Letter to @SaraEisen on the Economy Dear Sara, big fan; first-time caller. This morning on @CNBC, you asked “what has changed” since Fed Warsh’s dovish and patient stance in the summer to now. I’d like to present the private, weekly ADP report. We were declining into Warsh taking the chair (post-war hiring boom, to beat inflation by ramping up production, per PMIs). That ramp faded. We knew it would. It was clearly signaled. But NO ONE knew how bad that fade would get. We could have gone negative. The Fed HAD to be patient to find the ADP bottom. We found it. And we didn’t go negative. We rebounded off 8k. We rebounded hard, and…

🚨 Option: Selling calls is looking juicy on $AMD Overbought on weekly & daily. 11% yields if you sell calls 86 days out. Those options also returned ~10% today on the selloff. We pitched this to course members this morning *before* the selloff. Now, fundamentally: AMD got a bit rich. Its net margins have a lot of growth ahead of them. But I expect their net margins to double from 17%. If they do, AMD still has ~30% upside. BUT... NVDA, AVGO, and others in hardware have 2x upside. So AMD ran a bit ahead. Great company; great potential.

12% inflation?!?!?! I guess Insurnace agents using AI isn’t leading to deflation yet 🥵🥵🥵 https://t.co/OiYMBCt313

Iran Delays, Ship Attacked - Stock Anxiety, Oil Up. https://t.co/lBmNwqcdxn

Bloomberg JUST reporting SpaceX's GrokBot usage up 24% over the last week. Big acceleration. Nice job @elonmusk

Cuban delegation WALKS OUT as Trump calls Cuba a "failed state" at UN speech. https://t.co/tdlbiT3gVM

The Morning After: Trump at UN, Iran, AI Stocks, Agentic AI https://t.co/9TXbp3Upv4

⚠️ $1.5 TRILLION comes off the Fed's balance sheet starting next quarter. ➡️ Fewer bond purchases = higher yields. ➡️ It's a backdoor to tighten financial conditions w/o hiking more. Eventually, they'll get back to cutting w/ less printing. Real estate will win from that. https://t.co/wBjcygnvQZ

🚨 50 to 55% of the growth in Wall Street deal fees this year came from AI. ✅ AI is making lenders and underwriters RICH. ✅ The SUCKENING we warned of in June is now Hardware Rally 2.0. 😇 Imo... this is JUST getting started. Anthropic will be another SUCK. https://t.co/ZTQzdYF3Mq

"Yo, Kevin. How did you get Youtube views up so much recently?" I stopped being distracted doing things like: ➡️ Being a jet pilot ➡️ Taking financial exams ➡️ and getting distracted I focused. Lasered in. Worked harder. And now we're growing my startup faster than ever. https://t.co/8UKy9zFaF7

Powerwalls secured @Tesla! Great work! Grokbot’s never going down on us now! Even my Black X is excited!! $TSLA https://t.co/G4EedpeZvB Leaked archives of my Black X https://t.co/hrs7czf4Gd

The bottom is PROBABLY in for Oracle. ➡️ Rev up 29.6% last Q. Expenses up 18.4%. Margins rising. ➡️ And for the first time, they can cover their bills: $36.3B cash vs $33B due. ➡️ Last year that was NEGATIVE. Step change. IMO looking better for $ORCL https://t.co/cK1A8cIVvV

So far, so good. And we don't even have TACO yet! https://t.co/qxboATHNXs

@brookeleblanc @nypost Come talk to the finance bros that watch my channel and let's negotiate these demands. 🤔

Instructions clear. Loading the boat Monday. $RKT https://t.co/YmEOQ2YKQv

⚠️ BREAKING: OpenAI expects to BURN $280 billion between now and 2030 "OpenAI expects expenses will far outrun its revenues"

⚠️ Anthropic JUST delayed IPO to November. First September. Then October. Now delayed again. And they say they may delay again.

Somewhat strange... ✅ Anthropic signed a $44.6 billion dollar contract with Nscale for compute. ✅ Nscale JUST disclosed: we have no plan for how to finance the compute for that $44.6b deal we just signed. So now we're signing deals on bear pelts we haven't caught yet. Proof actually comes from their own S-1 filing that just dropped. https://t.co/4mUnG3gKfz And yes, the bear reference is where a "bear market" comes from.

Trump just said $5,000 stimulus checks MUST be spent in the USA. Only go out if republicans win midterms. If democrats win, he says, “we’ll have a depression.” I’m still writing Meet Kevin on the ballot

Holy moly. Anthropic now expects to have 5gw of compute by the end of this year. That's up 2.5-5x from the end of 2025 estimate of 1-2gw.

Our family (7 children) buys a lot at Costco. Our trade deficit with Costco is MASSIVE. We should immediately stop trading w/ Costco.

@CitySlicker2299 you very, very clearly have not been paying attention.

No iPad. No Dell. A pocket-sized notepad got you a rate hike today. https://t.co/AYuJrtDK2Y

Warsh proved he had balls. Grant Cardone, on the other hand, questionable.

My prediction: Trump says, "Welll, a rate hike is NOT what I would have wanted. But I have faith in Warsh and we MUST STOP THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN from obtaining a nuclear WEAPON. Thank you for your attention to this matter. DJT."

I raise you a Poinsettia. Fed will hike. https://t.co/0dlSt0FtKL

Alright, call me a jaded a$$hole, but here's how I read this. And I think I'm right. My brain only 0 ai... Camp Newsom: ➡️ We need to come across as respectable to women. They're tired of Trump; we need to do the opposite. ➡️ Let's be honorable to Harris, suggesting we "wouldn't do that to her." ➡️ Even though we already know Harris won't run (I'm guessing they know), let's imply we wouldn't run against her if she did. Now, he seems "candid" (when they're mic'd up and know they're on camera). He seems like a nice guy. Standing up to the "what?!?!" fake shock. Now, Newsom seems like the opposite of Trump. Someone who would fall on the sword …

Bill Ackman increases Uber to 29%. I’d buy $TSLA stock over $UBER ANY day of the week in this debate.

The squeeze up will be glorious on the next TACO, which I expect before midterms.

I’ve never seen this before 🥵 On the Amazon Air Cargo Crash: ✅ Pilot changed flap configuration 9 seconds after minimums, just 1 second before the “40” call out 😇 That means their radar altitude was literally 40 feet. 😇 Changing flaps this low is risky https://t.co/Wbb4YULZof