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🚨 An Open Letter to @SaraEisen on the Economy Dear Sara, big fan; first-time caller. This morning on @CNBC, you asked “what has changed” since Fed Warsh’s dovish and patient stance in the summer to now. I’d like to present the private, weekly ADP report. We were declining into Warsh taking the chair (post-war hiring boom, to beat inflation by ramping up production, per PMIs). That ramp faded. We knew it would. It was clearly signaled. But NO ONE knew how bad that fade would get. We could have gone negative. The Fed HAD to be patient to find the ADP bottom. We found it. And we didn’t go negative. We rebounded off 8k. We rebounded hard, and fast. Now, hiring rates (per this morning’s PMI) are rising at a pace “not seen” in the last 4 years. ADP is at 3.5x the pace on a weekly and trending up. So call it AI, call it tax cuts, call it debt, call it oil: the jobs market is strengthening, giving the Fed much more latitude than they had even just 2 months ago to raise rates. Aggressively. The only thing that stops this hiking cycle is Trump ending the War. A daily watcher and not-so-secret fan, Kev