Gene Munster

Pressure Points: AI Trade Update - Jan 2026 We’re 4% of the way into 2026, and the fundamentals of AI infrastructure are tracking above expectations. Next stop: hyperscalers’ capex guidance in two weeks.

AI trade alive and well.

Key indicators of AI fundamental health in 2026 are now 2-for-2. Bottom line: AI infrastructure growth in 2026 is likely to exceed expectations. I believe NVDA will grow >65% y/y, versus the Street at 50%. 1. Management commentary from NVDA at CES suggested upside to the Street’s 50% CY26 growth expectations. 2. SMC reported last night. Shares are up 7%, versus the Nasdaq up 0.8%, after the company guided March-quarter revenue 7% above Street estimates. NVDA is up 3% on the read-through. This implies that for the March ’26 quarter, TSMC revenue is likely to grow 40% y/y, compared to 25% in Dec ’25and 41% in Sep ’25.

Odds of new Siri succeeding just went up. It's official, $AAPL going with Gemini is important because it means the new Siri, aka the new Apple Intelligence, has a higher probability of success when it launches this spring (my guess is April). The shift away from GPT, and to a lesser extent the OpenAI relationship, toward Gemini is a sign that Apple is serious about fixing Apple Intelligence. To be clear, GPT is a highly capable model, but Apple wants, and needs, to do more. Nice job, @tim_cook, turning the decade Siri problem and Apple Intelligence shortcomings into an opportunity for future device and services sales.

Nice call Dan on the Apple+Gemini combo. You've been saying that for months and now it's official.

Early read on $NVDA investors in 2026: they’re a tough crowd, but growth will win them back. https://t.co/XVFRPnJSws

@deepwatermgmt is proud to be a small part of the big vision you’re tackling @xAI. We’re grateful investors. Thanks for all that you and the team are doing.

$NVDA flat on the day despite CFO's comment at JP Morgan Fireside Chat that there is upside to the $500B Blackwell and Rubin comment from back on October 28th. The fact the stock is not up on this is the latest evidence that investors are reluctant to buy into the 2026 AI hardware trade. This is what I was expecting Jensen to say yesterday in his keynote. I continue to expect revenue growth this year of 65%+ compared to Street at 50%.

How bullish is $NVDA about its business? Just look at how often management wants to get in front of investors. Over the years, I’ve noticed that when things are going well at a company, management's are more aggressive at telling their story to investors. In 2025, Nvidia lists 16 investor events on its IR website outside of earnings and shareholder meetings. Most are keynotes and sell-side conferences. Over that period, $NVDA shares are up 26% vs. the Nasdaq up 18%. Compare that with $CRM, which lists 11 events, and $ADBE, which lists 7 (including podcasts). Both stocks are down ~22% over the past year.

Three takeaways from Jensen’s CES keynote that ended at 5:30p ET: $NVDA shares are flat in after-hours trading. 1. I was disappointed there was no direct commentary on demand. My take: don’t read into it. My take: Demand is still running ahead of expectations and I still expect 65% plus growth this year. The Street is at 50%. Looking back at last year’s keynote, this year’s high-level comments were similar. 2. Spotlight on Physical AI. Jensen dubbed this the “ChatGPT moment” for machines to understand, reason, and act in the real world. My take: the Physical AI push steals the show. 3. Announced a partnership with Siemens to use its tools …

Two pressure points going into Jensen’s CES keynote today at 4pm ET. 1. Commentary on demand. He will likely reiterate that they can’t keep up with demand and reaffirm the $500B target. This ties back to Jensen’s October 28 comments around the $500B Blackwell + Rubin revenue pipeline implying at least 54% revenue growth in CY26, above the Street’s current 50% target. That estimate excludes any incremental bookings and any revenue from China. My take: Over the past two months, investors have been reluctant to give the company credit for the good news. $NVDA’s stock reaction tomorrow will be a read on whether sentiment has shifted. I expect C…

The AI trade gets three important updates today, including Foxconn results this morning and $NVDA and $AMD keynotes after market close. 1. Foxconn beat revenue estimates by 8%, growing at 22% vs. the Street 13%. Foxconn buys Nvidia GPUs and manufacturings some of their products. It's also a positive read on $AAPL iPhone demand for the December quarter. 2. Nvidia’s Jensen CES keynote at 4p ET. Bottom line, I expect comments from Jensen at CES will lead to Street revenue estimates for CY26 to inch higher. For the year, I expect growth north of 65%, vs. the Street at 50% 3. AMD’s Su CES keynote at 9:30p ET. I expect the same positive high lev…

WSJ story on apps powered by ChatGPT lines up with our study from earlier this week. Bottom line: it’s rough today but OpenAI has support from Google, Apple and Microsoft and will eventually get it right. https://t.co/xVHATmnzYE https://t.co/cd88nCjEip

Looking closer at $TSLA deliveries, the numbers are better than they first appear. https://t.co/3Z44JhsAk3

$TSLA is up 1.8% in premarket on December delivery numbers. Delivered 418k vs. Street at 420k and above the whisper of 415k.Overall, deliveries were down 16% y/y in December, vs. up 7% in September. 4 Takeaways: 1. There’s a lot of noise in the numbers, similar to the September quarter, the noisiest delivery quarter in Tesla’s history due to the tax credit expiration. 2. These results are consistent with what we saw in October, when U.S. EV registrations for all automakers were down ~30% y/y. 3. For 2026, the Street still looks too high at +12%. My estimate is flat to +5%. 4. As long as deliveries are roughly flat next year, investors wi…

In October, ChatGPT became an app platform. Since then, even the largest tech companies, including competitors, have wanted to be part of it. https://t.co/xVHATmn296

$TSLA and Elon signaling today that robotaxi production will start in April takes some pressure off December deliveries, which we should get this Friday. Here’s what I expect for Friday deliveries: 1. I expect December deliveries to come in at 415k vs. the Street at 449k. This implies deliveries down 16% y/y, compared with the Street’s expectation of a 10% decline. 2. There will be a lot of noise in the numbers, similar to the September quarter, which was the noisiest delivery quarter in the company’s history due to the expiration of the tax credit. 3. In October, U.S. EV registrations for all automakers were down ~30% y/y. 4. One way to…

The private company tail is wagging the public company dog. Rumors of OpenAI raising capital have increased confidence in the broader AI trade. 🚀

$GOOG's Waymo is out raising money at about a $110B post. If this were a basketball game against $TSLA's Robotaxi, Waymo would be up 50–2. Spoiler alert: Tesla is poised to make a run. https://t.co/tSneuL4BLA

California is giving $TSLA 90 days to rename Autopilot because they believe it’s misleading. The debate has been around since 2018, and is by my measure absurd because when you turn on Autopilot or FSD you get a messages “Keep your eyes on the road. Be attentive at all times”. Previously the message had read “Keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times”. I bet Elon renames it to “California Driver Must Remain Fully Attentive and In Control At All Times Cruise Control”.

Good news for $TSLA. Ford in full retreat from EVs. Hard to see how you build a big autonomy business on the back of hybrids. Ford will take $19.5 billion in charges to write down EV investments, among the largest impairments taken by a company https://t.co/xVLCICcNk1 via @WSJ

’Tis the season. Happy 2026 predictions including thoughts on the Nasdaq, the AI trade, small caps, Tesla and Apple. https://t.co/uazeopGXiK

Deja vu: China sales should increase $NVDA FY25 growth to 65% vs. 51% expected today. Stock up 5% on the news today. Nasdaq was down 0.1%. More in Pressure Points. https://t.co/XiDuapFuAC

My take: $AAPL will be the top-performing Mag 7 stock over the next six months, driven by better-than-expected iPhone results and multiple expansion ahead of the new Siri which should be out around April.

A data point suggesting we’re not at the top of the AI bubble: Earlier today, IBM announced it’s acquiring Confluent for $11B, a 34% premium to Friday’s close. That said, shares are still down 67% from their October 2021 all-time high ($93/share). It’s hard for me to imagine we’re at an AI peak when companies are being acquired for less than half of what they traded at before the AI trade even started. $CFLT is in our $LOUP ETF, which focuses on frontier tech companies below $500B in market cap. For those new to story: Confluent helps companies pipe all their data from different systems into one place so they can feed their AI models with…

Apple’s leadership shake-up comes while there’s still plenty of time for Apple to nail AI. $AAPL https://t.co/PDUyW4PTYT

Here’s a good note as we wrap up the trading week that suggests AI’s impact is broadening into cybersecurity. Rubrik, a $17B data-protection and cybersecurity company, is up 24% today. They reported EPS of $0.10 vs. the Street’s -$0.17 and revenue of $350M vs. $319M expected. They also raised their 2026 revenue outlook by 4%. $RBRK is in our $LOUP ETF, which focuses on frontier tech companies below $500B in market cap.

I'm thrilled to announce that the Innovator Deepwater Frontier Tech ETF ($LOUP) has transitioned to an actively managed strategy. The fund targets companies at the frontier of tech innovation, with a focus on AI, fintech, AV/EVs, ambient computing, and robotics. Our goal is simple: remain nimble in fast-moving, disruptive sectors while building on our seven-year track record. https://t.co/3mAADoW79g

Zuck’s definition of the metaverse has evolved: https://t.co/en8o5wMrgP

During Zuck's Meta Connect keynote back in September, I thought they needed help from Apple design. Now they landed the talent and will reset Reality Labs focus that kicks off a new chapter.