Analyst’s summary
Hoya Capital is the account of Hoya Capital Real Estate, a research firm covering real estate and income securities. The record comes from posts on X. Across the whole record, most of his claims are mentions of assets with no direction; a small share carry a direction, and none of those name a price level. The directional calls are almost all single equities, about half of them fundamental calls about business outcomes, and his most-called names are SPG, VNQ and IYR.
How accurate is he?
He is accurate 40.3% of the time against a base rate of 33.2% for the stocks he calls, so he scores 7.1 points above it. Accurate means he hits or partially hits the hurdle in the direction his signal implies, inside the window he named or the calculated window determined from our algorithm; for a price target it means the target was reached inside the window, or half the stated move was.
How does he compare to just holding the S&P 500?
If you had put $1 into the S&P 500 on the day of his first equity call in June 2017 and left it there until his last equity call was settled, you would have $3.12. If you had put $1 into every one of his 133 equity calls instead, buying when he posted and selling when each call was due, you would have $1.73; the S&P 500 held on those same days made $2.18.
Taking profit early, at twice the hurdle with no stop-loss, turned $1 into $3.73. The base rate on the stocks he picks is $1.48: the same stocks, bought on random dates in the same period, held for the same lengths of time, with the same long and short sides.
Explainer on his accuracy against his return
Accuracy counts how often he was right; return counts how far the price went. He was right more often than chance, and a dollar compounds the path, not the average: his hits averaged +23.1% and his misses -18.1%. (* see the footnote below for a fuller explanation)
How does following his timing compare to the base rate of the stocks he chose?
A dollar following every one of his calls to the end of its window became $1.73 against a base rate of $1.48; with a stop at the hurdle and a take-profit at twice it, $1.29. In three of his six years he beat the base rate, in 2019, 2024, 2026; over the last twelve months he scored 51.3% against a base rate of 32.9% on 30 calls.
What is the best holding period if we follow Hoya?
Each call's window: a dollar following every call to the end of its window became $1.73 against a base rate of $1.48, and no other plain hold does better. On tracking, his edge over the stocks is largest at 90 days, +2.3% against +1.9%, and at ninety days he is 0.4 points ahead of them.
Does he have any names where he has a particular edge?
On AMT, RHP, AMH his calls beat the stock's own 30-day move; on VNQ, the name he calls most, they trailed it by 0.7 points; they trailed it on IYR and PLD.
In our opinion, a follower should not pay for his short-horizon timing: at a thirty-day hold following him did no better than buying the same assets on random dates. The value, if any, sits at longer horizons and in a few names: his calls beat the 30-day drift on AMT, RHP and AMH, while VNQ, his most-called name, trailed it. The record is spread across many issuers, so a follower should treat him as a source of ideas to test, not as a timing signal.
Notes
1 Right means the hurdle test. Every stock carries a hurdle, T, that depends on its class and on how long the call was given (the table on page 2): 5 percent for a single equity at ninety days, under half a percent at next close, eleven at a year; 13 percent for crypto at ninety days. A full hit is a move of at least twice T in the direction he called by the end of the window and counts 1.0; a partial hit is at least T and counts 0.8; a miss, and a flat outcome that moved less than T either way, count zero. A price-target call is a full hit when the target is reached inside the window, a partial at half the stated move and a miss otherwise; it has one reading, the touch, so a later fall does not change it and the hit rate is not a holding return. Every resolved call is scored and every one is in the denominator. At expiry reads the price once at the window's end; one-touch counts the same move if it happened at any point inside the window.
2 Base rate: for each call, over every window of the same length on the same stock across the record, from two years before his first call to the last price and leaving out the call's own window, the share that cleared the same hurdle in his direction, with a partial at 0.8 and everything else zero; built exactly as the hit rate is, then averaged over his calls. Lift is his rate minus it. The percentiles and the drift in Parts 2 and 3 use a narrower set, the 730 days before each call.
3 The percentile is where a call's return ranks among all windows of the same length in that stock's own past two years; the 50th is chance. The placebo band is what random posting dates on the same stocks produce; a reading inside it is indistinguishable from chance.
4 The dollar base rate: the same stocks, the same number of calls, the same long and short sides, bought on random dates; the median of 150 such runs. Each call is held to its own window, and a price-target call is sold at its target if that comes first, on his dates and on the random ones alike.
5 Win rate and return per call: a follower buying at the first close after each post and selling thirty days later, costs deducted; the share of calls that made money, and the average result.
6 Drawdown: the deepest fall of that follower's account from its peak.
7 A bracket is a take-profit and a stop-loss set in advance; here both are set in units of the call's own hurdle, and a price-target call takes its target as the take-profit, so a take-profit fill is a hit banked and a stop fill is a miss taken. It is a rule of ours, not part of his record, and it never feeds the alpha gate.
* Accuracy counts calls. Every call counts once, whatever the size of the move: a full hit is one, a partial is 0.8, a miss or a flat is zero. Thirty-six of his 133 calls were full hits, twenty-two partial, seventy-five were misses or flats. Random windows on the same stocks clear the hurdle less often than that, because stocks of this kind move the hurdle's distance inside the window about 22.5% of the time on their own. So by count he is right more often than chance. Return weighs calls by how far they moved. His thirty-six hits averaged +23.1%, one of them, FRMI, +76.3%. His thirty-one misses averaged -18.1%, and his forty-four flats were small. Add them up and the winners are worth +1044 points against -608 for the losers. Here the two measures point the same way.
Summary of metrics
Integrity: 1815 posts were read, yielding 2287 claims, 195 directional calls and 133 resolved. (see section: the worked claim, Part 5, annex)
Information: scoring for accuracy by our rules, he is accurate 40.3% of the time, against a base rate of 33.2% for the same stocks, so he scores 7.1 points above it. On tracking his calls, his best horizon is 90 days, where his calls return +2.3% against +1.9%, an edge of 0.4 points. At the ninety-day horizon his calls return +2.3% on average, 0.4 points ahead of the stocks' own return of +1.9% over the same days. (see section: 1.3, 1.18, 2.19)
Robustness: in 3 of his 6 years he scored above the base rate, in 2019, 2024, 2026; over the last twelve months he scored 51.3% against a base rate of 32.9% on 30 calls; the record holds 133 resolved calls on 86 stocks. (see section: 1.6, 1.9, 5.3, 5.4)
Concentration: his calls beat the stock's own 30-day move on AMT, RHP, AMH; on VNQ, the name he calls most, they trailed it by 0.7 points; they trailed it on IYR and PLD. (see section: 2.8)
Response profile: if we follow all of Hoya's calls, the holding period most profitable is each call's own window. One dollar following every call for each call's own window became $1.73 against a base rate of $1.48. There is no benefit to holding his calls for one day, 7 days or 30 days. (see section: 1.3, 2.13, 2.14b)
Distribution: one call is worth +3.2% on average, after costs; the middle half of his calls end between -3.8% and +10.7%, and 57.1% of them end positive. Following every call to the end of its window turned one dollar into $1.73 against a base rate of $1.48, and the account fell 54.5% from its peak along the way. (see section: 2.13 to 2.16)
accuracy at expiry (vs base rate at expiry of 33.2%)
accuracy on one-touch (vs base rate one-touch of 58.5%)
one dollar following all of his calls vs one dollar holding the index for the same period
RHP +3.1%/+0.4%
AMH +2.9%/-1.0%
the names where his edge is biggest: his average 30-day return / the stock's own
51.1% / +0.1% (30 day)
51.1% / +0.1% (7 day)
45.9% / -0.1% (1 day)
win rate / return per call, by holding period; aggregate is each call held to its own window
$0.76 vs base rate $1.02 (30 day)
$0.73 vs base rate $0.90 (7 day)
$0.97 vs base rate $0.89 (1 day)
one dollar following every call vs the base rate for following the same stocks on random dates
selling each call as soon as it is up twice its hurdle, no stop-loss: 62.4% of calls win against 57.1% on a plain hold to the window, and one dollar ends at $3.73 against $1.73
his average return against the stocks' own, at the horizons he uses most (ten or more calls); the difference is his edge in points
Following Hoya Capital's calls from the first close at or after each post and holding each call to the end of its own window, one dollar became $1.73 over 2311 days in market, against just holding the S&P 500 for his equity calls ($1.73 following those calls against $3.12 held), and against holding the same stocks Hoya chooses on random dates, which would have produced $1.48.
This report does not establish an investment advantage. Comparison data for similar assets was unavailable.
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