Analyst’s summary
Brad Loncar is a biotechnology investor and the founder of Loncar Investments. He reaches the record through posts on X. Across the whole record, almost everything he says is a mention, an asset named without a direction; only a small share of his claims carry a directional view, and of those none name a price level and about half are fundamental calls about business outcomes. All his directional calls are single equities. His most-called names are ALNY, BRIDGE and BLUE.
How accurate is he?
He is accurate 83.3% of the time against a base rate of 39.6% for the stocks he calls, so he scores 43.7 points above it. Accurate means he hits or partially hits the hurdle in the direction his signal implies, inside the window he named or the calculated window determined from our algorithm; for a price target it means the target was reached inside the window, or half the stated move was.
How does he compare to just holding the S&P 500?
If you had put $1 into the S&P 500 on the day of his first equity call in October 2023 and left it there until his last equity call was settled, you would have $1.57. If you had put $1 into every one of his 6 equity calls instead, buying when he posted and selling when each call was due, you would have $1.23; the S&P 500 held on those same days made $1.13.
Taking profit early, at twice the hurdle with no stop-loss, turned $1 into $1.66. The base rate on the stocks he picks is $1.32: the same stocks, bought on random dates in the same period, held for the same lengths of time, with the same long and short sides.
Explainer on his accuracy against his return
Accuracy counts how often he was right; return counts how far the price went. He was right more often than chance, and a dollar compounds the path, not the average: his hits averaged +17.0% and his misses -21.6%. (* see the footnote below for a fuller explanation)
How does following his timing compare to the base rate of the stocks he chose?
A dollar following every one of his calls to the end of its window became $1.23 against a base rate of $1.32; with a stop at the hurdle and a take-profit at twice it, $1.04. In one of his one years he beat the base rate, in 2025; over the last twelve months he scored 80.0% against a base rate of 41.2% on 5 calls.
What is the best holding period if we follow Brad?
30 days: a dollar following every call for 30 days became $1.19 against a base rate of $1.08, and no other plain hold does better. On tracking, his edge over the stocks is largest at 90 days, +10.5% against +6.5%, and at ninety days he is 4.1 points ahead of them.
Does he have any names where he has a particular edge?
On TAK, REGN, MRNA his calls beat the stock's own 30-day move; on ALNY, the name he calls most, they beat it by 1.4 points.
In our opinion, a follower should treat Brad Loncar as a source of stock ideas rather than a timing signal. His directional calls are too few to show that following his posts beats buying the same assets on random dates. The case for him rests on TAK, REGN and MRNA, where his calls beat the stocks' own thirty-day move, and on ALNY, his most-called name. His misses lost more than his hits gained, so size accordingly.
Notes
1 Right means the hurdle test. Every stock carries a hurdle, T, that depends on its class and on how long the call was given (the table on page 2): 5 percent for a single equity at ninety days, under half a percent at next close, eleven at a year; 13 percent for crypto at ninety days. A full hit is a move of at least twice T in the direction he called by the end of the window and counts 1.0; a partial hit is at least T and counts 0.8; a miss, and a flat outcome that moved less than T either way, count zero. A price-target call is a full hit when the target is reached inside the window, a partial at half the stated move and a miss otherwise; it has one reading, the touch, so a later fall does not change it and the hit rate is not a holding return. Every resolved call is scored and every one is in the denominator. At expiry reads the price once at the window's end; one-touch counts the same move if it happened at any point inside the window.
2 Base rate: for each call, over every window of the same length on the same stock across the record, from two years before his first call to the last price and leaving out the call's own window, the share that cleared the same hurdle in his direction, with a partial at 0.8 and everything else zero; built exactly as the hit rate is, then averaged over his calls. Lift is his rate minus it. The percentiles and the drift in Parts 2 and 3 use a narrower set, the 730 days before each call.
3 The percentile is where a call's return ranks among all windows of the same length in that stock's own past two years; the 50th is chance. The placebo band is what random posting dates on the same stocks produce; a reading inside it is indistinguishable from chance.
4 The dollar base rate: the same stocks, the same number of calls, the same long and short sides, bought on random dates; the median of 150 such runs. Each call is held to its own window, and a price-target call is sold at its target if that comes first, on his dates and on the random ones alike.
5 Win rate and return per call: a follower buying at the first close after each post and selling thirty days later, costs deducted; the share of calls that made money, and the average result.
6 Drawdown: the deepest fall of that follower's account from its peak.
7 A bracket is a take-profit and a stop-loss set in advance; here both are set in units of the call's own hurdle, and a price-target call takes its target as the take-profit, so a take-profit fill is a hit banked and a stop fill is a miss taken. It is a rule of ours, not part of his record, and it never feeds the alpha gate.
* Accuracy counts calls. Every call counts once, whatever the size of the move: a full hit is one, a partial is 0.8, a miss or a flat is zero. Five of his six calls were full hits, zero partial, one were misses or flats. Random windows on the same stocks clear the hurdle less often than that, because stocks of this kind move the hurdle's distance inside the window about 33.9% of the time on their own. So by count he is right more often than chance. Return weighs calls by how far they moved. His five hits averaged +17.0%, one of them, MRNA, +23.8%. His one misses averaged -21.6%, and his zero flats were small. Add them up and the winners are worth +85 points against -22 for the losers. He was right more often than random but his winners were smaller than his losers, so a dollar that followed every call fell short even though the count was on his side.
Summary of metrics
Integrity: 1253 posts were read, yielding 301 claims, 11 directional calls and 6 resolved. (see section: the worked claim, Part 5, annex)
Information: scoring for accuracy by our rules, he is accurate 83.3% of the time, against a base rate of 39.6% for the same stocks, so he scores 43.7 points above it. On tracking his calls, his best horizon is 90 days, where his calls return +10.5% against +6.5%, an edge of 4.1 points. At the ninety-day horizon his calls return +10.5% on average, 4.1 points ahead of the stocks' own return of +6.5% over the same days. (see section: 1.3, 1.18, 2.19)
Robustness: in 1 of his 1 years he scored above the base rate, in 2025; over the last twelve months he scored 80.0% against a base rate of 41.2% on 5 calls; the record holds 6 resolved calls on 6 stocks. (see section: 1.6, 1.9, 5.3, 5.4)
Concentration: his calls beat the stock's own 30-day move on TAK, REGN, MRNA; on ALNY, the name he calls most, they beat it by 1.4 points. (see section: 2.8)
Response profile: if we follow all of Brad's calls, the holding period most profitable is 30 days. One dollar following every call for 30 days became $1.19 against a base rate of $1.08. There is no benefit to holding his calls for one day, 7 days or each call's own window. (see section: 1.3, 2.13, 2.14b)
Distribution: one call is worth +10.4% on average, after costs; the middle half of his calls end between +11.6% and +19.4%, and 83.3% of them end positive. Following every call to the end of its window turned one dollar into $1.23 against a base rate of $1.32, and the account fell 34.7% from its peak along the way. (see section: 2.13 to 2.16)
accuracy at expiry (vs base rate at expiry of 39.6%)
accuracy on one-touch (vs base rate one-touch of 68.3%)
one dollar following all of his calls vs one dollar holding the index for the same period
REGN +7.4%/-1.1%
MRNA +13.1%/+6.6%
the names where his edge is biggest: his average 30-day return / the stock's own
Part 2 withheld: fewer than ten resolved calls with a price
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Following Brad Loncar's calls from the first close at or after each post and holding each call to the end of its own window, one dollar became $1.23 over 380 days in market, against just holding the S&P 500 for his equity calls ($1.23 following those calls against $1.57 held), and against holding the same stocks Brad chooses on random dates, which would have produced $1.32.
This report does not establish an investment advantage. Comparison data for similar assets was unavailable.
No series available.
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