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"Deeply powerful. But also deeply primitive." The AI conversation has split into two camps that are both wrong. Camp one: AI is magic. Six months from AGI. Build everything on top of it. The model will figure it out. Camp two: It's a parlor trick. It hallucinates. It can't reason. The whole thing collapses inside a year. Both miss what's actually happening. Modern AI is genuinely powerful AND genuinely primitive. The same system that drafts a contract in 20 seconds can't tell you, with certainty, what its own confidence is on a single sentence. That's the nature of next-token prediction at scale. The companies that win the next decade hold both ideas at once. They go faster. They also build the rigging that lets them trust what they ship. The ones pretending they already know what this moment is are the ones who'll spend 2027 explaining to the board why a launch they bet the year on shipped wrong. Chamath at Stanford. 43 seconds ↓
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