Chamath Palihapitiya

This will change the desirability to live and visit this city more than most people realize...

#1 this week. Two weeks in a row.

Pod!!!

Pod!!!!

My research team is never wrong…

what the hell are they going to do?!?!? holy shit...

I suspect 70-80% of revenues at AI companies are from other AI companies who’ve raised money from the Venture industry. This is not a circular revenue problem but it is a revenue quality problem. We’ve seen this before in the SaaS cycle in the early/mid 2010s.

VC investors have enabled the AI industry to bastardize revenue reporting. In the 2010s, SaaS companies popularized reporting the metric of Annual Run Rate because it was a reliable measure of long term, contractual revenues into the future. The key is that the revenues are contracted and guaranteed thru the contract life hence why forecasting it forward is appropriate. VCs have taken this to mean Annualized Run Rate when AI is concerned and where you take transactional/API revenue from the last month (or even last week in some cases) and forecast it forward. It’s insane that investors have enabled this to happen but it’s happened.

😬 https://t.co/RZzvkeUFlo

As I stated on the pod, it’s more critical for Ant to get public and get the $200B they need than to optimize for valuation. Find the market clearing price and go public asap. My guess, a few weeks ago, was that this price was +/- $1T. I’m still of this mindset and haven’t changed my mind.

Wow.

Learn the past to rewrite the future…

👀 https://t.co/VdpxrpKNx7

I stand by these statements: “Everybody's going to have to get into the land power shell game and get your own electricity, and everybody's going to have to solve this. I actually think every company should probably break the seal and understand the energy shortage and think about buying LPS themselves. I do not think you're going to be able to rely on the clouds.”

Answer the call. If you are technical and want to help America then @USTechForce may be for you…

Model Benchmarks Are Worthless How can a model score 24% and 59% on the same 113 coding tasks? It happens when you vary the harness that wraps it. I’ve increasingly ignored most of the recent model leaderboard results. Partly from exhaustion and partly because improvements in a ranking don’t show up in the actual work. So I asked the 8090 Labs team to measure what the leaderboards skip: the model and the harness together, on real bug fixes and features from open-source projects. 8090 Labs ran 7 models through 5 harnesses. Here are a few results I didn't expect: - Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 scored 41% in Claude Code and 61% in OpenAI'…

You should expect the silicon chip companies to move up the stack as the application companies move down the stack. In AI, it is increasingly true that everyone competes with everyone. Everyone will soon offer their own LPS, silicon, cloud and applications. The question is what will the constraint be that you can build a long term market and margins around… Is it distribution? Is it a data moat? Is it a physical constraint like power?

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#2 in the country. 🫡 https://t.co/WLbEj4Zpex

These are some very important observations from Satya. As models and harnesses commoditize, intent, verification and evidence will gate how quickly SI permeates enterprises and businesses. Importantly, you need to implement systems that separate who does the work from those who govern, measure and sign off on it. This is a new kind of “harness” that will emerge over the next few years. It may become a new system of record over time. One whose entire role is to track “change” and map it back to SOPs, policies, laws and the like.

Strong debut - I had not heard of her until a few days ago. Her debate vs Letitia James was impressive. She mopped the floor with her.

True

Pod!!!

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Cheaper, faster, better.

I was so disturbed by the damage of the wildfires in California that I helped get a new company off the ground to simplify wildfire resilience, layer by layer. Please try Strata. It starts with a simple assessment and then a remediation plan to do everything you can to protect your home. It won’t solve for your politicians’ incompetence but will allow you to address what’s in your control. https://t.co/sFdCV3TuI2

This is a very big deal.

Solar and batteries are not only becoming the biggest energy sources, they are also becoming hugely lucrative markets. We will see a consolidation in solar and batteries that will be similar to how Nat Gas consolidated in the late 2010s. Many new big energy companies will be birthed over the next several years.

Wow

This.