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At a very hi level, free cashflow = operating cash flow - capex. The hyperscalers are deep into an investment cycle so they are consuming their operating cash flow. It is incorrect to look at this and assume their FCF has collapsed because operating cash flow has collapsed. It hasn't. Capex has exploded. This cycle should be eerily reminiscent of Amazon's approach over the past 20 years when they did the same thing related to e-commerce and AWS buildout. The question should be what moat did Amazon create at the end of that cycle and what kind of moat could the hyperscalers build now related to AI after this cycle?

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This is a hell of a chart from @Nomura https://t.co/RDNyrRAVsT

AlexCorrino ↗
Library as of 2026-10-22