2026-07-25XQuote

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Here is what all these sideline commentators don’t understand: THERE IS NO PRICE DUMPING IN OPEN SOURCE AI China can price dump in manufacturing. Why? Because we destroyed our means of equivalent production and so can’t do the same. But manufacturing is not AI. China CANNOT price dump in open source AI. Why? Because everything in open source, by definition, is public domain and available to everyone at no cost. The most important thing that this means is that we can do the same thing as China as long as we have the will and the people to do it. And we have both. - America is still the leader in frontier AI. - America has the smartest developers. - America has the most creative engineers. - America has the leading silicon. - America has the most advanced clouds. The biggest risk in America is we are short electricity and China has a surplus of it. So if they can somewhat catch up in some of the other areas above, they could beat us. But as of right now, we are leading. There is no price dumping. We also want the price of intelligence tokens to go to zero. So let’s get on with it and finish this on the field. But don’t fall for a stupid analogy.

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Scott Galloway just explained why China doesn’t need to build better AI than America. It only needs to make American AI worthless. Galloway: “I think China is beginning to engage in what I’ll call AI dumping.” Not competing. Dumping. It’s the term economists use for flooding a foreign market with below-cost goods until the domestic industry collapses. Galloway: “They’re going to have a series of open-weight models. About a third of corporations now are supposedly using Chinese lightweight open-weight models that are cheaper.” Not better. Cheaper. A third of corporations. Already. China isn’t trying to out-innovate Silicon Valley. It’s trying to collapse the economics beneath it. Price warfare at the infrastructure layer. Galloway: “If I were Xi, I would just dump cheap AI into the US market.” This playbook is old. China ran it with steel. Ran it with solar. Ran it with semiconductors. Flood a market with a cheaper version until the domestic industry can’t sustain itself. AI is next. Galloway: “The moment large corporations start announcing they’re disengaging these multi-million dollar site licenses with Anthropic or OpenAI, they’re using these inexpensive Chinese models…” One CFO after another decides the Chinese model at a fraction of the cost is good enough. Not better. Good enough. “Good enough” at a lower price has killed more market leaders than any superior product ever has. Galloway: “…and the market realizes that there’s no way they can justify these incredible valuations, I think the US market crashes.” Not because the technology failed. Because the business model did. American AI companies are valued on the assumption that corporations will pay premium prices for premium models. China’s whole strategy is to make that assumption false. Galloway: “40% of the S&P now is directly or tangentially related to this giant bet America’s making on AI.” 40% of the S&P. Tied to one sector. Galloway: “The majority of GDP growth over the last two years has come from AI CapEx.” The majority of GDP growth. From one source. America didn’t diversify its future. It concentrated everything into a single bet, then left that bet undefended. Galloway: “If that slows down, we are immediately in a recession.” Immediately. Not gradually. Not over quarters. The distance between AI boom and American recession is one procurement decision. America built the most advanced AI on Earth and forgot to build an economy that survives someone selling it cheaper. The threat to American AI was never that China would build something smarter. It was that China would build something cheaper, and American corporations would choose the price. China’s real weapon isn’t Chinese technology. It’s American capitalism. The same rational self-interest that built the AI industry will dismantle it the moment a cheaper alternative appears. The market has no patriotism. Only price sensitivity. The technology race was never the real race. The real race was always whether America could turn its AI dominance into something that survives being undercut. America hasn’t even started running it. China already has.
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