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Recent market chatter suggests HP may raise its 2026 notebook shipment outlook. My latest supply-chain surveys indicate this is not the case. HP has only verbally asked suppliers to extend lead times from about one month to six months, while full-year shipment volume remains largely unchanged. Since there’s no upfront payment, suppliers are unlikely to truly build inventory at that level—though some incremental stocking may occur, creating the appearance of order growth. Two key takeaways: 1. A notable increase in HP notebook shipments is unlikely with no meaningful improvement in memory supply or end-market demand. This looks more like a move to get ahead of potential component price hikes by building inventory early. 2. If other brands follow HP and start building inventory as well, the short-term appearance of stronger notebook component orders will become more pronounced.