Apple the only bright spot among notebook brands in 2026: Neo, Neo 2, OLED roadmap & strategy

The processor, display size, and casing color options of MacBook Neo are almost exactly in line with what I predicted about nine months ago (https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/1939558413459177897 Neo entered small-volume production at the end of Dec. 2025 (vs. my earlier expectation of Oct.). Because mass production is about three months later than previously expected, 2026 shipments are slightly lower than prior estimates, around 4.5–5 million units (with about 2–2.5 million in 1H26). For a single laptop model, that’s still a very strong number. Neo 2 was originally expected to feature a touch panel to compete with Chromebooks (50%+ of which support touch), but my latest industry checks suggest Neo 2 may not adopt it. Quanta is currently the exclusive assembler for Neo. Foxconn could become a second supplier in the near future. Luxshare — which has rapidly expanded its Windows laptop assembly business over the past 1–2 years and aims to become the world’s largest notebook assembler — is actively pursuing the NPI opportunity for Neo 2. Neo shipment momentum should grow steadily quarter by quarter for two reasons: 1) Back-to-School and year-end holiday demand, and 2) Competitors’ lower-cost memory inventory accumulated last year is likely to be depleted by mid-1H26. As a result, more laptop models may start raising prices from 2Q26 to reflect higher memory costs, making it harder to compete with Neo. Reiterating my earlier forecast: MacBook Pro is expected to receive a major upgrade with OLED touch panels in late 4Q26 or early 1Q27. MacBook Air is expected to adopt OLED panels around 2028 or 2029. I estimate total MacBook shipments will reach about 25 million units in 2026 (20–25% YoY), potentially returning to the COVID-era peak and becoming the only real bright spot among laptop brands (vs. Windows laptop shipments expected to decline 10%+ YoY). Pricing from the iPhone 17e to MacBook Neo reinforces my earlier view of Apple’s strategy: use the memory market chaos to their advantage—secure the chips, absorb the costs, and grab more market share (https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/2016213691075862869 This also strengthens the case that Apple may keep prices unchanged for the new iPhones launching in 2H. As long as Apple continues expanding its market share, it not only supports the growth of its high-margin services business, but also positions Apple as the biggest beneficiary when on-device AI eventually takes off.