2024-10-11XQuote

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Tesla's robotaxi mass production timeline aligns with my previous survey result. At the event, Elon Musk stated: "Well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames. But in 2026. So yeah. Before 2027. Let me put it that way." Considering Musk's careful choice of words and his specific mention of 2027 as a benchmark for Cybercab production, along with his history of setting optimistic targets, this announcement aligns with my previous survey of Cybercab mass production commencing in 1Q27. 1Q27 is still far off, and the Cybercab production timeline may shift. Key points to watch for $TSLA in the coming months include 1) the next earnings call, 2) the U.S. presidential election result, and 3) whether Tesla can roll out unsupervised FSD in California and Texas in 2025.

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1. Some market participants are optimistic about Tesla's robotaxi event on October 10. However, my latest supply chain survey indicates that Tesla's robotaxi (aka Cybercab) may enter mass production in 1Q27. Because mass production is still some time away, expectations for a significant rally in $TSLA following the event may be overly optimistic. 2. Whether the robotaxi service uses purpose-built self-driving cars or leverages existing Tesla owners' cars, the most important factor is that the company's FSD technology must meet the government's requirements (some state governments require Level 4) before providing the robotaxi service. I believe Tesla already has the necessary hardware design and manufacturing capabilities to produce robotaxis. However, the mass production timeline of 1Q27 may mean that FSD couldn't achieve Level 4 capability until after 2027. 3. The robotaxi trend undoubtedly represents a promising future, but more patience may be needed before it arrives. The above analysis focuses only on the short-term impact of this week's Tesla event on the stock price. Long-term investors could disregard the above analysis.
mingchikuo ↗