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I'm taking a cautious stance on the upcoming semiconductor tariff policy under the Trump administration. Investors should stay alert to the near-term risks surrounding semiconductor stocks. The Trump administration has consistently viewed tariffs as a tool to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., with semiconductors being a top priority among all industries. Given this, it’s easy to see where the Trump administration stands on semiconductor tariffs. Apple offers a useful case study. The company began shifting its supply chain away from China during Trump’s first term, well aware of potential tensions with the Chinese government. It even pledged a $500 billion investment in the U.S.—yet still couldn’t escape tariffs. You’d think such efforts would earn some leniency, but they didn’t. This raises key questions for predicting the Trump administration’s approach to semiconductor tariffs: 1. Have non-U.S. semiconductor companies done more than Apple to reduce their reliance on China in recent years? 2. Have non-U.S. semiconductor companies outpaced Apple in U.S. investments? 3. Apple is an American company—do these non-U.S. semiconductor companies have stronger ties to the U.S. government than Apple does? The answers to these questions can help reshape expectations for what’s ahead on the semiconductor tariff front. To be clear, this isn’t a political take or a judgment on tariffs themselves. It’s a grounded analysis of what might realistically unfold.