2025-08-06XQuote

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I predicted three months ago - Super Micro would hit another purchasing delay in 2Q25, and that's exactly what happened. Super Micro: Shortfall stem from specification changes from a major new customer that delay revenue recognition. Transcript： https://t.co/Smp7fMXTQB https://t.co/ULN2VlFQl7

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Let’s take a quick look at Super Micro’s (SMCI) preliminary results. Long story short: this quarter’s numbers are likely to stay under pressure. AI servers currently split into three main types: ASICs (like Google TPU servers), Nvidia’s GB200/300 NVL72, and lower-end Nvidia servers (like the HGX series). Growth is mainly driven by ASICs and NVL72, mostly from CSP demand. In 1H25, SMCI’s shipments focus on Nvidia’s lower-end servers. Their key customers aren’t CSPs, and as I’ve noted before (https://t.co/9uI31hid9Y), they’re not a top-tier NVL72 assembler. So, SMCI’s preliminary results don’t reflect AI server industry trends—their product mix and customers aren’t representative. Still, the weak results will likely weigh on AI server supply chain sentiment short-term. SMCI mentioned delayed purchasing, likely due to the HGX Hopper-to-Blackwell transition, in my opinion. Plus, another delayed purchasing could hit this quarter from the B200-to-B300 shift. SMCI also noted an increase in older GPU inventory, which should refer to the Hopper series (including H20). Geopolitical factors could slow SMCI’s Hopper shipments, hurting this quarter’s results—unless Blackwell shipments scale up a lot.
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