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1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. The past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next. https://t.co/9kif9Ryayo 2/3 You buy a bond for its yield (blue). By 2020, they were the lowest in US history. This killed returns (orange) Since then, yields have risen (price losses). This was the unwinding of QE and zero rates. That is done. Now yields are back and diverging from returns. https://t.co/bx6K1nkPSg 3/3 Yield and FUTURE returns are strongly related. The higher the yield, the better the subsequent return. R-squared is 0.85 since 1914. 10 years ago, the yield was 2%. Today it's 5.5%. History says that's worth roughly 5% a year over the NEXT decade. Not more -2%. https://t.co/XaySTXFGLH