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1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher? -- My argument for why this case is overstated. (It's a problem, but a secondary one.) 🧵 https://t.co/zBzpq4Mada 2/8 Federal debt held by the public as a percent of GDP (blue) is expected to top 100% when the 2026 ratio is reported. The Congressional Budget Office (orange) expects this ratio to blast to a new high of 120% in the next 10 years. https://t.co/8f6tqTC9Ws 3/8 So, is the ever-increasing amount of debt above driving bond yields higher? We would argue the answer is largely no. And any response, such as yield curve control or other financial repression would not only be ineffective but might make the problem far worse. 4/8 Let’s start by breaking down ALL debt/loans into 2 groups, government-linked (blue) and the private sector (orange). Private sector debt peaked in Mar 2008, the Global Financial Crisis, and has been declining. Government debt (blue) accelerated, also starting in Mar 2008. https://t.co/74CWKVTw2L 5/8 Combine them and ALL debt/loans reached 370% of GDP in Q2 2026, effectively the same as it was 20 years ago: 368% in Q3 2006. There’s been no net addition to OVERALL debt levels relative to GDP in the last 20 years. What's changed is who is borrowing/deleveraging. https://t.co/3YMT2OsECU