Source item

Stats about $MSTR's NAV: * Negative since Nov 12 .. took a month to notice? * Lowest NAV since Mar 27, 2023 (SVB failure) * It reached -50.92% on May 12, 2022 (Terra/Luna collapse) * Consistently negative for 18 months (Jan 22 to Aug 23) The peak of 229% on November 20, 2024... this was the height of BTC excitement over Trump's win. The chart above shows the Market Cap (MC) of $MSTR relative to the value of the $BTC it holds. It is NOT Enterprise Value (EV) to $BTC. EV is MC plus outstanding debt and preferred stock. It shows the MC premium/discount of $MSTR to the $BTC it holds. (benchmarked around 0%, not 1.00 like other measures. I believe this is a more intuitive way to look at it.) Yesterday, the market assigned a value to $MSTR that was 10% LESS THAN its $BTC holdings. -- Using either MC or EV to compare against the value of its $BTC holdings is no more right or wrong than the other. They both have strengths and weaknesses. But since you cannot "own" EV, but can own MC (buying $MSTR), I think MC is the better measure for investors and judging sentiment. Others may differ. This measure factors in the amount of leverage $MSTR is using. But so should MC. If $ MSTR's use of leverage is a good idea, it will assign a big premium, like in November 2024. If it thinks leverage is bad, it will trade at a discount, as it is now. --- The chart below shows the total holdings of $BTC by the Spot BTC ETFs (blue) and $MSTR (orange). Collectively, they hold 9.9% of the circulating supply. The crypto community has made a play for "adoption." Or as @DylanLeClair posted on January 11, 2024 (the day that Spot ETFs started trading) ... "Here come the boomers." And for 2024 and a lot of 2025, this was the case. Boomers (or Tradfi) piled into ways to own $BTC without owning it on-chain or through a centralized exchange ... The Spot ETFs and $MSTR. But now, these same Boomers are valuing $MSTR below its $BTC holdings (a 10% discount). The Spot BTC ETFs' breakeven cost is $90.1k (so now a loss), and these ETFs are experiencing consistent outflows. In other words, the risk now is "their goes the boomers," and 10% of the circulating supply is for sale. And why not? They have suffered through losses this year and missed 50% rallies in Gold, 75% in Silver, and 20% to 50% (or more) in AI stocks. Again, the risk is that the groups $BTC coveted (Boomers) are close to souring on $BTC, or have already soured on it. If so, their 10% $BTC holdings could be a "boat anchor" around its neck of further $BTC gains.