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The chart below is the Polymarket betting on another government shutdown on January 31. It has spiked from 9% to 74% today in reaction to the Border Patrol shooting in Minneapolis. The thought is that this latest event will embolden the Senate Democrats to filibuster its passage (thus shutting down the government) in an effort to defund, or significantly alter, ICE/CBP's current mission. Background On November 12th, a continuing resolution was passed to reopen the government, which had been shut down since September 30th. That continuing resolution ends on January 30th. To keep the government open past January 30th, a budget or another continuing resolution was required. That budget passed the House of Representatives on January 22nd. It is waiting for passage in the Senate. This morning, it was seen as a formality. But now, with this latest event, there are questions about whether this will embolden Senate Democrats to prevent its passage and shut the government down again to reform the current deportation proceedings. Also complicating this is the major winter storm hitting the Northeast and Midwest, which could delay senators' return to Washington, further compressing their schedule as they decide what to do. Five minutes after I wrote the above post, this red headline hit Bloomberg *SCHUMER THREATENS TO BLOCK APPROPRIATIONS BILL OVER DHS FUNDING Polymarket jumped from 74% to 80% To be clear, 60 votes are needed to prevent a filibuster. The Republicans have 53 seats. They need 7 Democrats to vote to prevent a filibuster. Once a filibuster is prevented, it only takes 51 votes to pass the bill. From Bloomberg ... (No January payroll report???) ---- Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer vowed to block a massive funding package next week unless Republicans agree to strip funding for the Department of Homeland Security, dramatically increasing the risk for a partial US government shutdown. Schumer's announcement came on the same day that a Border Patrol agent shot and killed an American intensive care unit nurse in Minnesota during protests over the immigration crackdown in that state. Democratic opposition to the funding package potentially affects not just Homeland Security but also the departments of Defense, Labor, Education, State, Treasury and Health and Human Services. The effects would be widespread, including delaying the next Bureau of Labor Statistics report. In the event of a shutdown, many essential workers -- including the military and Transportation Security Administration agents -- may have to work without pay. But Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol employees may continue to be paid through additional funding in President Donald Trump's tax bill signed last year. The House passed the bill Thursday and left Washington until after the Jan. 30 shutdown deadline. Any changes to the bill including stripping out DHS funding would require the House to return and vote on the new bill.