2026-05-03XThread

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Big news from Trump about 20 minutes ago (and ~90 minutes before the market reopens on Sunday night in Asia): The US will start Naval Escorts called "Operation Protect Freedom" tomorrow! As I noted in the repost below (from Friday), the US was "stuck" until the circumstances changed. It now seems they are about to change tomorrow! Some possible outcomes (hoping for #1 or #2, fearing #3 and #4) 1. US escorts ships out, Iran does nothing, this is over 2. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships that the US can repel, this is over 3. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships and hits them, or they hit a mine. The image of burning ships is a disaster for the Navy and the US, especially if it's a US warship. 4. The US keeps threatening to do this, but the Navy never actually does it (akin to them not firing on the 40 or so fast boats in the Strait today when Trump said they would a several days ago). The US can be criticized for talking a big game with little action. I detailed Iran's strategy in this thread yesterday. https://t.co/2JzxTkiDHp Apparently, this (from Trump's Truth Social Post above) does NOT mean a naval escort will begin tomorrow (even though it says a naval escort will begin tomorrow). ---- Trump: I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. ... If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.

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The bottom line is the Iran War is "stuck." No War (shooting) No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium And it will stay "stuck" until circumstances change. The most likely change ... * The US/Israel restart kinetic attacks with the goal of forcing the Iranians to their position * The Iranians hold the stalemate long enough to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels for the developed world to get the US/Israelis to accept their positions. I guess a third option is that the blockade imposes unbearable economic pain on the Iranians to force them to accept the US positions. I say "guess" because the thinking now is this might take a long time, which plays into the Iranian point above about holding the stalemate to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels. As we are starting to understand, the Iranian regime has a high tolerance for economic pain, and the larger population cannot overthrow them. So, the maximum pain point, the so-called "tank top" of their crude oil storage facilities getting full, might be several weeks away.
biancoresearch ↗

1/4 If Iran holds on and continues to prevent shipping in the Strait and chaos in the region, because of the POTENTIAL threat they pose, they extract an ever higher price from the developed world, inevitably leading to higher prices for Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium. Iran's strategy is that the world says the cost is not worth it, and they voluntarily withdraw.
biancoresearch ↗