2026-08-04XThread

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1/3 The Nasdaq 100, or $NDX, the underlying index for the $QQQ ETF, is up 9.36% since last Wednesday's close. On Thursday morning, we learned that Public Stock Holdings of the Hedge Fund Situational Awareness was bought by Citadel. It has been straight up since. https://t.co/6HJvAIWL6a 2/3 This chart shows that a 9.38% return in four trading days would rank as the 6th-best four-day period in the last 20 years. As of this writing, we still have 1.5 hours left in today's session. So our rally into the close could push it even higher. https://t.co/GfJiu87Vfh 3/3 My feed has been full of bearish reports and podcasts about AI/Technology since this past weekend. This is a MEGA short cover, as these bears are in the process of getting killed and carried out. -- I discussed this last week https://t.co/A9cmjfv6cf

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Doesn’t the market usually start finding a bottom when somebody finally blows up? Now we have Situational Awareness, a levered AI/infrastructure book with big losses in weeks and a public stock portfolio sold to Citadel, and the AI complex ripping immediately after. UBS AI winners Stock Index is up over 10% today. • 1998: LTCM • 2018: Volmeggeon - XIV / short-vol unwind • 2020: Treasury basis trade / forced deleveraging • 2021: Archegos, more idiosyncratic, but same forced-liquidation pattern 2022: UK LDI pension/gilt crisis Add in Korea’s emergency response after Samsung/SK Hynix-driven volatility, and it feels like we may have just seen the forced seller finally get cleared. Of course there were the Lehman/Bear blowups that revealed a bigger credit problem, not bottoms. But when the issue is crowded positioning with leverage resulting in margin calls, the blowup often marks the point where the selling becomes visible, concentrated, and exhaustible. So the question for today’s rally: is this just a bounce, or was Situational Awareness the AI-trade liquidation event that marked the bottom?
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