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2/2 This is my worksheet for the vote tally. I currently have the voting for a possible September 16th hike at 5 (hike) - 5 (hold) - 2 (unknown) The two unknowns are Chris Waller, who speaks on September 3rd, and Jay Powell, who will not speak A 58% probability of a hike aligns with a vote tally of 5 - 5 - 2 because Waller is expected to say he is also in favor of a hike (on September 3rd). Restated, Waller's public appearance this coming week is as important as Warsh's at Jackson Hole in determining if the Fed will hike on September 16. Two follow-up thoughts Too many are OVER-analyzing Warsh's words and not appreciating that he is now 1 or 12 voters. Therefore, the mental model of how the Fed decides policy need updating. Powell wanted to stay quiet and fade into the background. He may not be afforded this luxury as he might be the swing vote on policy next month.