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1/4 tl:dr: Little evidence this is happening --- The argument below is that massive AI-related borrowing is "crowding out" other non-AI borrowers and driving up costs (interest rates) for everyone, putting non-AI companies at a disadvantage. @elonmusk and @chamath agreed 2/4 Overall High Yield Index's Yield to Worst (The lowest return, assuming the issuer calls it back early at the worst possible time for the holder). Since 6/30/09 (GFC), the average yield has been 6.88%. The current yield of 7.27% is nothing unusual. https://t.co/kU67nFOxNS 3/4 High-yield option-adjusted (for call features) spreads (OAS) are NOT showing elevated credit spreads. But they are also near the tightest levels of the last two decades. No evidence that the overall high-yield market is seeing higher premiums relative to Government bonds. https://t.co/bwbzZxBzJ8 4/4 Blue = The OAS for Tech-related high-yield bonds Black = The OAS for all high-yield bonds Bottom = the difference In 2026, tech-related issuers ARE paying the highest premium over the overall index in decades. Or to restate Winton's post above ... Elon, Chamath, and Winton have an issue with higher borrowing costs. Everyone else does not. Markets tend to be very efficient when discriminating between different credit risks. They should not fall into the trap that their problem is everyone's problem.
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a surprise I think is coming the quick payback periods and extraordinarily high IRR for AI infrastructure, even at monumental scale, will push up cost of capital sufficient to push many traditional businesses into the abyss, even those without obvious direct AI counter-exposure

wintonARK ↗
Library as of 2026-10-20