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2/5 Green is every cutting cycle since 1971, eight cycles in total. https://t.co/hd5FPMMmbo 3/5 Here is the change in the 10yr yield during all of these cutting cycles. Black is the current cycle. This cycle stands apart from all previous cycles because it will be the only one in 50+ years that the Fed cut rates for an extended period and 10yr yields are HIGHER. https://t.co/bRAdoXwSjZ 4/5 Even the 2-year yield is up more than 1% since the Fed cut rates two years ago. Remember, the funds rate was 5.5% two years ago, and now even the 2-year yield is 1% higher than it was then! https://t.co/ENi5O827I2 5/5 Many argue that the Fed is about to make a mistake by hiking rates tomorrow. The Fed made the mistake two years ago by cutting rates, and the market has been rejecting it through higher yields from 2-year to 30-year. Ending this policy error could end the rise in yields. If it doesn't cut tomorrow, it risks the market continuing to reject this easy policy; yields could soar.