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1/3 There's a narrative that the Fed can't hike on October 28 because it's the week before the midterms. Somebody should tell the market because it's pricing the probability of an October 28 hike at 60%, and it is rising. https://t.co/2WGxwra5hK 2/3 If the market is pricing in a hike in late October and the Fed defies it by NOT hiking, remember this chart. For two years, the Fed (orange) was easy, and the market (blue) kept rejecting it by pushing long-term yields higher. This could repeat in late October. https://t.co/Df8G4UtIHG 3/3 I explained this on @BloombergTV this morning @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 @mckonomy https://t.co/ZcM4xS7dCW