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New Fed guidance: “There is no need for urgency.” John Williams, the vice chair of the FOMC, delivers notably precise pushback in guiding against an October rate hike that has been getting priced by investors. https://t.co/oiiGMrism4 He lays out his base case: One more hike “may be appropriate late this year.” Following Warsh’s press conference two weeks ago, markets had pushed pricing of an October rate increase above 50% — to as high as 70% in futures markets in recent days. Here is the key passage from the NY Fed president’s prepared remarks on Tuesday afternoon: “With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information. The accumulation of more data should provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in the economy and the associated risks to achieving our goals—and thereby the appropriate setting of monetary policy.” “If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. But that is just my forecast, and time—and the totality of the data—will tell.”
NickTimiraos ↗