Source item

The University of Michigan has been conducting a consumer confidence survey for 74 years (starting in 1952). The lowest reading in this history is the number out today for April 2026 at 47.6. The commentary from the University of Michigan attributes it solely to the war, since 98% of their surveys were conducted before the April 7th ceasefire announcement. I find this explanation wanting. Since 1952, we've had our share of wars and 9/11. Yet the conflict has produced a 74-year low among consumers, but only a 3% correction in the stock market. Does this make sense? Regarding the current conflict, is it worse than the Korean War, the historic protests over the Vietnam War in the 1970s, or the never-ending quagmire in Iraq? This was the conflict that drove us to a 74-year low? Maybe it is the affordability crisis, which is really the cumulative increase of inflation over the last five or six years, which is being missed by economists who look at the year-over-year rate and try to say it is "well anchored." This would be my guess.