When the U.S. launched Project Freedom about two weeks ago and sent destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz (protected by ~100 planes at a cost of $50–100 million in just two days), Iran hit Gulf neighbors in retaliation. The media reported that some Gulf states were furious — partly because senior U.S. officers had downplayed their defense as a low priority.
Restated: the U.S. military already had its hands full. We don’t have an effective shield against mass, the cheap drones and missiles fired against a large area, like an entire Gulf country (see Ukraine, they do). The Gulf states got so nervous that they suspended U.S. use of their air bases, making them justifiable targets. So the operation was paused after two days.
Yesterday, Trump just told them we were about to strike again. They raised the same concern, “Iran will drown us in drones,” and we still don’t have a good defensive answer. They pushed back hard. Trump backed down.
By the way, this is classic 21st-century war.
Decentralized. Highly mobile attack groups. Mass quantities of cheap, attritable, unmanned weapons designed to overwhelm defenses. Rapidly iterative (like software updates every few weeks).
20th-century war was the opposite: a handful of exquisite, insanely expensive platforms (carriers, F-35s, tanks) that take years to upgrade.
The 21st century is about cost-benefit: make attacking so expensive and difficult that even superpowers get frustrated. The U.S. is learning this the hard way right now — and so is everyone else.
France & UK gave up on the Bab-el-Mandeb vs. the Houthis.
Russia is stuck in Ukraine.
Israel is struggling in southern Lebanon (now that they have FPV drones).
Even China may hesitate on Taiwan because of its “porcupine” defense (which is getting assistance from Ukraine).
21st-century warfare has found the formula to challenge every major military power on earth.
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BREAKING: The Pentagon reveals Trump paused the strikes on Iran not for negotiations as he claimed, but because Iran is becoming rapidly more effective at tracking US air operations, improving its air defenses and becoming too strong at detecting signs of a surprise attack, per NYT.
Iran has used the ceasefire to successfully dig out all bombed ballistic missile sites, making them fully operational again. Iran also moved a large number of new mobile launchers across the entire country and adjusted tactics for any resumption of strikes, per a US military official.
Iranian commanders studied US fighter jet and bomber flight patterns with close Russian and Chinese help. The recent downing of an F-15E and groundfire striking an F-35 revealed American flight tactics had become "too predictable."
HormuzLetter ↗