2026-09-16XQuote

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Below I make the case that the more dissents the better. Also, Greenspan was famous for saying "If you understand what I said, I obviously misspoke." Regarding Warsh ... If you think you heard him give forward guidance at the presser, you misunderstood him.

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2/2 At this point, the question isn't whether they should hike, but what the vote will be. Below is my worksheet. Based on public statements, I have it as five votes to hike, six votes to hold, and one unknown (Jay Powell). If the Fed is truly worried about its independence, it would benefit from a 7-5 vote to hike (Powell and one "hold" switching). If the vote wound up in the 10-2 to 12-0 range, it would imply that the chairman is running the show, as those who said they are not ready to hike "fell into place" because the Chairman told them to. Such a one-sided vote would send a signal to Trump that he could bully Warsh, and therefore the Fed, into the policy he wants. A 7-5 vote signals to Trump that Warsh is only one of 12 voters and cannot dictate policy by himself.
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