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Stop saying "the Fed can't print oil." It's a lazy comment. Maybe, without a supply shock muddying the water, the Fed would have seen more easily that deglobalization ended goods deflation, which masked problematic services infaltion and hiked sooner. If so, long-term yields might be lower today, since bond traders could have stopped panicking sooner because the Fed started panicking earlier.

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1/6 A popular narrative is the Fed will make a mistake by hiking into a supply shock ("The Fed cannot print oil!") Wrong metric! Core PCE has run above 2% for 65 months. This suggests something bigger is happening and focusing on near-term oil/diesel spikes misses it. 🧵 https://t.co/SK4Ral3zCQ

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