Ming-Chi Kuo

Scenario Analysis of U.S. Government–TSMC Negotiations: What Trump Aims, TSMC's Bottom Line, and Investment Analysis Click the link below to read https://t.co/qA2L2cCRwk https://t.co/M6aoOLpicd

美國政府與台積電談判之情境分析：川普的目標、台積電的底限與投資分析 點擊以下連結閱讀 https://t.co/w9IGWwGv2l https://t.co/6LjrWZhyvP

Many people have asked me about this post, so here's a quick summary of the key points: 1. In Nvidia's latest GB300 NVL72 reference design, they've removed the supercapacitor shelves. While CSPs can still use custom racks with supercapacitors (since Nvidia's reference design previously recommended them and they're still under testing), this change in the reference design could affect CSPs' willingness to adopt them going forward. 2. Currently, Nvidia is considering different specifications of energy-storage capacitors for the power shelves as an alternative. The main design challenge, however, is the limited space. Even if they ultimately s…

很多人對我這篇提出問題，我整理重點回覆如下： 1. Nvidia在最新的GB300 NVL72參考設計中取消超級電容托盤，雖CSP的客製化機櫃仍可採用 (畢竟之前也是Nvidia在參考設計中推薦過，現在已在測試中)，但參考設計改變很有可能會影響後續CSP採用意願。 2. Nvidia目前暫時傾向找其他規格的儲能電容放在電源托盤，作為替代方案，但設計的挑戰是無太多空間可放置，故就算最後還是採用超級電容，需留意每個機櫃的用量是否減少。 3. 承1與2，需關注武藏原本預計在2026年擴產到年出貨量650萬顆 (vs. 2024的20萬顆與2025的150萬顆) 的規劃是否會改變，這會直接影響到該公司的未來營收與利潤估算。

iPhone SE4 is expected to ship around 12M/10M units in 1H25/2H25, performing slightly better than previous SE models (typically shipped near 20M units annually after launch). Not only does this help smooth out the usual seasonal dip in shipments, but it also boosts the adoption of Apple Intelligence devices. One key feature worth noting is Apple's in-house modem. Once the model launches, Qualcomm will look into its modem patents, as they believe they might be able to collect some licensing fees to make up for lost orders.

iPhone SE4在1H25/2H25出貨規劃約12M/10M，表現略好於過往SE機型 (開賣後年出貨接近20M)。此新機型除能降低淡季對出貨的影響，也有助加速支援Apple Intelligence機型之滲透率。採用Apple自製modem也是重點，Qualcomm將在此機型發售後檢視其modem專利，並認為有機會或能取得部分專利授權費降低掉單損失。

Gamers and power users are eager to get the RTX 5090 and 5080, but chip supply constraints are causing shortages. Supply issues will likely push back mass production of the RTX 5070/5060 from the original Feb/Mar to Mar/Apr. Limited supply means these two cards will sell out instantly even if production stays on schedule.

遊戲玩家和重度使用者都想入手RTX 5090和5080，但晶片供應的限制造成缺貨。因為供應問題，RTX 5070/5060的量產時間可能會延後到3月/4月，而不是原來的2月/3月 (即便能準時量產，也會因為數量稀少導致開賣即缺貨)。

Apple is exploring both humanoid and non-humanoid robots for its future smart home ecosystem, and these products are still in the early proof-of-concept (POC) stage internally. While the industry debates the merits of humanoid vs. non-humanoid designs, supply chain checks indicate Apple cares more about how users build perception with robots than their physical appearance (so Apple uses anthropomorphic instead of humanoid), implying sensing hardware and software serve as the core technologies. The timeline from POC to formal kick-off varies. Given current progress and typical development cycles, Apple's robot mass production likely won't sta…

Apple正在為未來的智慧家庭生態研究人形與非人形機器人，目前這些產品仍處於內部的概念驗證（POC）階段。當業界還在爭論人形和非人形設計何者能勝出時，供應鏈研究指出，Apple更重視的是使用者如何與機器人建立認知互動，而非外觀設計是否人形，這也意味著感測硬體和軟體技術將扮演核心關鍵。 從POC階段到正式開案所需時間視情況而定。根據目前進度和一般產品開發週期來看，Apple的機器人要量產可能要等到2028年或更晚才會開始。值得注意的是，重視保密的Apple反常地在POC早期階段就公開分享了部分機器人研究成果，這可能是為了吸引人才。 在Apple產品開發相關討論中，人們常聽到如NPI、EVT和MP等開發階段，而POC則較少人提及。基本上，POC是Apple在正式開案前，用於驗證產品構想和核心技術是否可行之階段。Apple傳聞中的可摺疊手機目前就是正處於POC階段。不過，也有許多專案的開發在POC階段就停止，Apple Car就是一個最著名的例子。

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor (AOS) Secures Its First Nvidia AI Server Order, Emerging as the Leading and Primary Beneficiary of GB300 NVL72; Poised to Exit Losses by 2Q25/FY25Q4 Click the link below to read https://t.co/8BzCj0UKH3 https://t.co/aEHQVHxxLZ

AOS首度取得Nvidia AI伺服器訂單，確定為GB300 NVL72主要與領先受益者，最快將自2Q25/FY25Q4擺脫虧損 點擊以下連結閱讀 https://t.co/IxRCVRrkQL https://t.co/SMnIrOk97z

先前發布的Samsung S25系列全部採用Qualcomm晶片，驗證了我去年6月的預測，而昨天的Qualcomm法說也提到了這點。不過，這也意味著，因為成長空間有限，Qualcomm在Samsung高階手機的出貨比重將開始放緩。 受益於S25全部機型採用Qualcomm晶片，預計2025年S25出貨量將成長約10% (vs. 2024年的S24系列)。

TThe newly announced S25 series uses Qualcomm chips across its entire lineup, confirming my prediction from last June—also noted in Qualcomm’s latest earnings call. However, Qualcomm’s shipment allocation in Samsung’s premium segment is expected to slow due to limited room for growth. S25 shipments are projected to rise by around 10% in 2025 compared to the S24 series, thanks to the lineup-wide adoption of Qualcomm chips.

On-Device AI Accelerating Beyond Expectations, Temporary Uncertainty in Cloud AI Compute Growth Click the link below to read https://t.co/3z29oTvmSC https://t.co/PV646uKqaU

裝置端AI趨勢快於預期，雲端AI算力成長不確定性暫時性浮現 點擊以下連結閱讀 https://t.co/ntIV4oa58b https://t.co/VSuAUmJvcv

iPhone in Focus: Apple Intelligence and Revenue Trends from Q1 2025 Results Click the link below to read https://t.co/dNzxVoJqdH https://t.co/6xKEzPlEtA

Apple Q1 2025財報iPhone重點檢視：Apple Intelligence與iPhone營收趨勢 點擊以下連結閱讀 https://t.co/55HFgjlHZx https://t.co/MrfB9kqvga

DeepSeek加速生成式AI產業邁入新階段：算力成長新動能與應用多元化 點擊以下連結閱讀 https://t.co/0PRqX0RLOI https://t.co/TVwl6FHsWm

DeepSeek Accelerates the GenAI Industry into a New Phase: New Compute Power Growth Approach and Application Diversification Click the link below to read https://t.co/LQoCbSWw6t https://t.co/lAXOHoBGYh

預期2H25 iPhone 17系列的動態島大小幾乎沒什改變 I expect the Dynamic Island size to remain largely unchanged across the 2H25 iPhone 17 series

Himax Emerging as a Key AI Upstream Winner in TSMC's COUPE (Silicon Photonics), Significantly Boosting Growth Visibility for 2026–2028 Click the link below to read. https://t.co/OI4lKryar3 https://t.co/WxF0Ibjfez

Himax為台積電矽光子 (COUPE) 關鍵AI上游贏家，2026-2028強勁成長動能之能見度顯著提升 點擊以下連結閱讀 https://t.co/8U46tXD6YC https://t.co/wGUmbrk5lW

TSMC's excellent financial result supports the positive AI trend. However, concerns remain regarding the shipment of Nvidia's GB200 NVL72. It might seem contradictory, but it's not. The key lies in TSMC's advanced nodes, a scarce resource highly sought by all global customers. Therefore, short-term underperformance of a single customer or product isn't likely to significantly impact TSMC's business momentum. On the contrary, TSMC often outperforms the industry average. For example, TSMC's smartphone revenue grew by around 23% YoY in 2024, while global smartphone sales grew by only about 4% YoY. Let's review my previous key predictions. The s…

台積電出色的財報，看似提供AI趨勢正向的證據，但同時Nvidia GB200 NVL72出貨的顧慮仍在。上述論述看似矛盾，但其實不衝突，關鍵在於台積電的先進製程是全球所有客戶均欲極力爭取的稀缺資源，故單一客戶或產品在短期內不如預期的供應，並不容易影響台積電的營運動能。甚至會常常看到台積電的表現優於產業平均水準，舉個例子，台積電2024年智慧型手機營收成長約23% YoY，但2024年全球手機銷量僅成長約4% YoY。 回顧我先前的關鍵預測。以下資料來源為台積電法說與Nvidia CEO黃仁勳在台灣台中接受媒體訪問 (中文) 1. 台積電CoWoS沒砍單，持續擴產中 https://t.co/Jnn05hRNuE 2. Nvidia產品線將從CoWoS-S轉移至CoWoS-L https://t.co/MKO2MdIzKr 3. GB200設計複雜，有初期工程挑戰 https://t.co/NJDSKowhNQ 上述與我先前預測的一致 1. 預測台積電回應CoWoS擴產按計劃進行 (與台積電回覆意思相同)，且在Nvidia產品藍圖更新中指出CoWoS-S移轉至CoWoS-L的趨勢 https://t.co/AeWooGlMjH 2. 指出Nvidia沒有砍單，但GB200 NVL72出貨能見度低並分析原因 https://t.co/aUVWUYkcZV

A Look at Nvidia's Blackwell Product Line Update, the Rumored Slowdown in CoWoS-S Capacity Expansion, and TSMC's Upcoming Earnings Call Click the link below to read https://t.co/VpepWwltzP https://t.co/8BaEE2SvGF

聊聊關於Nvidia Blackwell產品線更新、市場傳言CoWoS-S擴產放緩與即將到來的台積電法說 點擊以下連結閱讀 https://t.co/2x0ykTHgFF https://t.co/kjhNEoOoxP

Tesla just launched a revamped version of the Model Y (China), which matches my prediction about three months ago. Tesla Updates: 1. Even with the revamped Model Y, Tesla's production in 1Q25 is expected to drop by 10% QoQ and 5% YoY due to the global economy and seasonality. 2. The production visibility for the more affordable new model becomes lower than earlier expectations, suggesting it may not enter mass production in 2025.

Tesla剛推出新款Model Y (中國)，與我約3個月前的預測相符。 一些Tesla更新： 1. 即便推出新款Y系列，受到全球總體經濟與淡季影響，Tesla的1Q25生產量預計將分別衰退10% QoQ與5% YoY。 2. 目前更便宜的新款車型生產能見度較先前降低，意味著可能不會在2025年量產。 https://t.co/eJKf34vDAZ

緯穎2025年營運動能或超預期，2026–2027可望迎來結構性成長 https://t.co/zYvCeiD5oK