Ming-Chi Kuo

我在6個月前預測折疊iPhone將會採用側邊按鍵的Touch ID。目前有市場傳言折疊iPhone將會採用螢幕下方的超音波指紋辨識，我的理解這不大可能會發生。預期立訊將是折疊iPhone的側邊按鍵Touch ID模組供應商。

Here are the key points regarding Meta's AI glasses, Hypernova: 1. This device is expected to enter mass production in 3Q25 with a two-year product life cycle. Shipments over the next two years are projected to be around 150,000 to 200,000 units. Based on Qualcomm's chip shipment forecasts, global smart glasses shipments are projected to reach 13–15 million units in 2026. This indicates Hypernova's market share will be negligible, positioning it more as an experimental product for Meta. 2. AI will be Hypernova's most important selling point. However, the integration of AI with AR applications is still in its nascent stages. This, coupled wi…

關於Meta的AI眼鏡Hypernova的幾個重點： 1. 此裝置預計在3Q25量產，產品生命週期為2年，未來2年出貨量約15-20萬部。根據Qualcomm晶片出貨預估，2026年全球智慧眼鏡出貨量約1,300-1,500萬部，這看出Hypernova的市佔率可忽略不計，故較像是Meta的實驗性質產品。 2. AI將是Hypernova最重要的賣點，但目前整合AI與AR的應用之探索尚在早期階段，加上售價約800美元，這應該是Meta保守看待Hypernova出貨量的主因。此外，為追求量產性故採用LCoS，但這也衍生出外觀設計、亮度、反應時間與續航力等硬體設計挑戰。 3. Meta發布Hypernoa的策略目的：1) 搶先Apple發佈，打造品牌形象、2) 儘早累積生態經驗、與3) 理解用戶行為。

Earlier analysis pointed out why the stock price go up, and it looks like that’s exactly what President Trump cares about. https://t.co/M3qa6exXcK https://t.co/KNoFYZqlba

Eternal Materials’ First-Ever TSMC Advanced Packaging Order — Exclusive MUF and LMC for 2026 Apple Chips, New CoWoS Beneficiary, Eyeing Global High-Gross Margin LMC Market Worth Over NT$10B https://t.co/7HyBwrN6zd https://t.co/XblaoFWUiS

長興材料首度取得台積電先進封裝材料訂單，獨供Apple 2026處理器MUF與LMC，預期成CoWoS新受益者並搶攻全球逾百億高毛利LMC市場 https://t.co/jTGweXr5r2 https://t.co/UsoTqCQdMn

I predicted three months ago - Super Micro would hit another purchasing delay in 2Q25, and that's exactly what happened. Super Micro: Shortfall stem from specification changes from a major new customer that delay revenue recognition. Transcript： https://t.co/Smp7fMXTQB https://t.co/ULN2VlFQl7

我在3個月前就預測Super Micro將在2Q25再次遇到遞延採購，結果與我預測的一致 Super Micro: Shortfall stem from specification changes from a major new customer that delay revenue recognition. 法說會議紀錄： https://t.co/Smp7fMXTQB https://t.co/cPOF1gslgb

Unlikely to be iPhone assembly — more likely a subassembly for a small-volume product, or assembly for niche products or Apple’s in-house servers. Source: https://t.co/61ZcNACuRP https://t.co/tn8fTPpRu1

不大像是iPhone組裝，可能是某規模較小產品之半成品生產，或是利基產品或Apple自用的伺服器之組裝。 來源： https://t.co/61ZcNACuRP https://t.co/YaK6uXqTV4

@twtechinsights 其實這種「加碼」，跟關稅一樣，高到某種程度後，就沒實質意義了

Trump說台積電要投資美國3,000億美元 1. 台積電官方說的投資金額是1,650億美元，Trump先前說的金額是2,000億美元。Trump進一步將投資金額提高到3,000億美元，像是為即將到來的半導體關稅暖身，符合Trump自己說過的「先提出一個極高的數字，再往下談」的做法。 2. 近期市場傳言美台政府談判關稅時，Trump/美方要求台積電入股Intel 49%或追加投資4,000億美元。然而，我的理解是，美台灣關稅談判並沒有提到台積電。Trump單方面提到台積電要投資美國300億美元的發言，也算驗證了我的觀點 - 如果有需要，美國政府可以單方面發言或直接找台積電。 3. 如果上述市場傳言為真，台積電總共要投資美國5,650億美元，遠高於Trump說的3,000億美元，代表市場傳言非事實。 4. 美國政府部分人士先前的確將台積電入股，作為振興Intel的多種潛在方案之一，但隨著美國政府越來越理解Intel實際上面臨的挑戰，以及現任CEO陳立武上台後，目前這樣的聲音已經顯著減少了。 來源：https://t.co/FF2GfGIe2V

Trump says TSMC will invest $300 billion in the US 1. TSMC's officially announced investment is $165 billion, while Trump previously stated $200 billion. His further escalation to $300 billion seems to be laying the groundwork for upcoming semiconductor tariffs, consistent with his stated approach of "starting with an extremely high number, then negotiating down." 2. Recent market rumors suggest that during US-Taiwan tariff negotiations, Trump/the US demanded TSMC take a 49% stake in Intel or invest an additional $400 billion. However, my understanding is that US-Taiwan tariff negotiations have not involved TSMC. Trump's unilateral statemen…

CoWoP has recently taken the spotlight in the AI server industry. While it is a promising technology that merits ongoing attention, it also comes with significant uncertainties and challenges surrounding mass production and commercialization. Much has already been written online about its technical advantages and manufacturing hurdles. Here, I offer two additional perspectives for consideration: 1. A Comparison with Apple’s SLP Adoption Timeline According to Zhen Ding's annual report, it appears that Apple began investing in SLP R&D as early as 2013, with mass production finally kicking off in 2017 for new iPhone models (X, 8, and 8 Plus). …

CoWoP是近期AI伺服器產業的焦點，這是好技術並值得持續關注，但也不能忽略量產/商業化的高度不確定性與挑戰。網路上已經有很多關於技術優勢與製造挑戰的分析，我從另外兩個角度來分析: 1. 首先是用Apple的例子來對比 根據臻鼎的年報，可推論Apple至少從2013年就開始投入SLP研發，至2017年才開始量產並用於新款iPhone (X、8與8 Plus)。這四年內，Apple、材料商、製造商、與設備商合作，共同解決研發與量產問題，這不只是單一技術開發，而是整個產業生態升級。 現在的PCB產業技術當然遠勝十年前，但Nvidia對技術與供應鏈的掌控能力不見得勝過10年前那時的Apple，且CoWoP要導入SLP的挑戰也遠勝iPhone案例 (粗略看，前者是後者約萬倍的系統功耗、一半以下的線寬線距、3倍以上的層數、百倍的面積)。在沒有具體的實際測試結果前，CoWoP要在2028年量產並用於Rubin Ultra是很樂觀的預期。 2. CoWoP與CoPoS同時量產與商業化的挑戰艱鉅 台積電有另一個次世代封裝技術CoPoS，也預計在2028後量產。CoWoP在理論上可以改善傳輸效率並簡化供應鏈，但CoPoS要解決的是很實際的生產效率問題。因此從商業化的角度，CoPoS的優先順序理應高於CoWoP，而在實務上，要在一年內同時導入兩個重大創新但未經實證的技術之風險是相當高的，這也是CoWoP要在2028年量產的另一挑戰。

On July 17, 2025, Fine M-Tec announced an investment of approximately KRW 17.5 billion to support the growing foldable device market and increased demand for ultra-precision laser processing capacity. The investment period spans from July 17, 2025, to January 20, 2027. Source: https://t.co/y1BpKJtyrv Key takeaways: 1. This confirms my earlier prediction that Apple’s stricter crease-free requirements for the foldable iPhone would accelerate the adoption of laser drilling for display metal plate production. 2. To better compete with the foldable iPhone, Samsung’s new 2H26 Galaxy Z Fold 8 will also adopt higher-ASP laser-drilled display metal …

Fine M-Tec於2025年7月17日公告，因應折疊機市場擴大與精密雷射產能擴增所需，該公司將投資約175億韓元，投資期限自2025年7月17日至2027年1月20日。 來源： https://t.co/y1BpKJtyrv 幾個重點： 1. 此公告呼應我先前的預測，即折疊iPhone的顯示器金屬板因Apple對無摺痕有更高要求，故將採用雷射鑽孔技術進行生產。 2. Samsung預計在2H26發售的新款折疊機Galaxy Z Fold 8，為了與折疊iPhone競爭，也將採用更高單價之雷射鑽孔製造的顯示器金屬板，而Fine M-Tec為獨家供應商 (vs. Fold 7的主要供應商)。故此投資也是為了滿足Samsung手機需求，這也意味著Fine M-Tec出貨給Samsung的金屬板ASP/利潤將在2026年顯著提升。 3. Fine M-Tec為折疊iPhone投資尚未結束，預計後續會有新的投資公告。

Reports like the following explain why Foxconn has been relying on its Taiwanese employees rather than Chinese employees when building iPhone factories in India. https://t.co/qSttsUmeED https://t.co/fyyscHNR1n

類似以下的新聞，說明了鴻海為何在建置印度iPhone工廠時，主要依靠該公司的台灣員工，而非中國員工 https://t.co/qSttsUmeED https://t.co/0WhwHEUulv

Everwin Set to Benefit from All-New More-Affordable MacBook & Apple’s 2027 Smart Glasses

1. More-Affordable MacBook: Expected to enter mass production in late 4Q25 or early 1Q26, with an approximately 13-inch display and powered by the A18 Pro processor. Potential casing colors include silver, blue, pink, and yellow Apple aims to return total MacBook shipments to the COVID-19 peak of around 25 million units in 2026 (vs. an estimated 20 million units in 2025). The more-affordable MacBook is projected to account for 5–7 million units for 2026. 2. Apple’s 2027 Smart Glasses: No display functionality; core features include: audio playback, camera, video recording, and AI environmental sensing Multiple material options for frames…

長盈精密為全新低價版MacBook與Apple 2027年智慧眼鏡的關鍵受益者

1. 低價版MacBook： 預計4Q25底或1Q26初期量產，配備A18 Pro處理器，螢幕尺寸約13吋，機殼顏色可能包括銀、藍、粉紅、與黃色 Apple目標是讓2026年MacBook總出貨量回到疫情時的高峰約2,500萬部 (vs. 預計2025年約2,000萬部)。低價版MacBook的2026年出貨量預計500–700萬部 2. Apple的2027年智慧眼鏡： 無顯示功能，關鍵功能包括：耳機、照相、錄影、與AI環境感測 鏡框與鏡架有多種材質可選擇，Apple目前正積極測試用3D列印製造鏡框與鏡架 預計2027年出貨量300–500萬部或更多 3. 長盈精密為低價版MacBook與Apple 2027年智慧眼鏡的關鍵受益者： 長盈精密為低價版MacBook機殼，與Apple 2027年智慧眼鏡之鏡框與鏡架的參考設計供應商 (NPI) 長盈精密目前供應MacBook Pro機殼，預計2026年開始供應MacBook Air機殼，新訂單有利出貨成長 受益於2026年新機種與新訂單，長盈精密2026年營收與利潤預計將分別顯著成長15-20% YoY與30-40% YoY。

I believe—and I doubt anyone would disagree—that Apple could build the best Meta Ray-Ban–like smart glasses on the market. Yet its decision-making in this area has been surprisingly slow. Putting AI aside for a moment, this category could cannibalize at least some AirPods demand, directly impacting Apple’s hardware business. Still, the company has remained conspicuously inactive. Apple has historically excelled at creating entirely new product categories and courageously cannibalizing its own products. To describe an Apple product as "Ray-Ban-like smart glasses" seems almost like an insult to a company of Apple's stature. Yet ironically, thi…

我相信 (應該也沒人會懷疑) Apple可以做出市面上最好的類似Meta Ray-Ban的智慧眼境，但Apple在這件事上的決策真的過慢。先不說AI，這種類型的產品，未來很有可能會取代至少部分的AirPods需求，對Apple硬體事業造成影響，而Apple過去卻一直沒有作為。 本來Apple最擅長的，就是創造新產品品項，以及勇於取代自己，用「類似Ray-Ban的智慧眼鏡」形容Apple的產品，對Apple很像是一種羞辱，但有些諷刺的，這卻是對產業現況最客觀的敘述方式。 不過遲到總比沒到好。此外，Apple開始積極在硬體產品上創新，對供應鏈絕對是好事。

Apple Foldable iPhone Updates: 1. Assembly supplier Foxconn is expected to officially kick off the project in late 3Q25 or early 4Q25. As of now, many component specifications (including the hinge, which has drawn considerable market attention) have yet to be finalized. 2. The foldable display is one of the few components with finalized specifications and serves as a good reference for estimating potential shipments. Samsung Display (SDC) plans to build annual production capacity for 7-8 million foldable panels to supply the 2026 foldable iPhone. Given that actual production in 2026 may span only a few months, panel shipments that year are …

Apple摺疊iPhone更新： 1. 組裝廠商鴻海預計在3Q25底或4Q25初正式開案，目前仍有不少零組件的完整規格尚未定案，包括市場關注的軸承。 2. 目前用折疊螢幕推估折疊iPhone出貨量有較好的參考性，因其是少數規格完全定案的零組件之一。Samsung Display (SDC) 預計將建置每年約7-800萬片折疊螢幕的產能，供折疊iPhone所用。因2026年實際生產時間可能僅數個月，2026年折疊iPhone螢幕出貨量應會低於年產能。 3. 市場近期傳言Apple下單1,500-2,000萬部的折疊iPhone訂單，經過對數種零組件調查指出，這種等級的訂單規模是指生命週期 (2-3年) 的訂單總量，而非2026年出貨量。這代表Apple預計在2H26量產的折疊iPhone，或許是高單價因素，該機型在2027與2028年的年出貨量均為數百萬部。 4. 需注意的是，在正式開案前，一切改變都有可能。

As I mentioned earlier, Apple could try to calm Trump's emotions in order to temporarily shift his focus from the iPhone tariffs. It looks like they’ve figured out how. Trump: Apple Is Going to Buy a Lot of Trump Gold Cards https://t.co/BpYwyzdkAW

如我先前所說，Apple可以想辦法安撫川普情緒，來暫時性轉移川普對iPhone關稅的注意力，看來Apple找到方法了。 Trump: Apple Is Going to Buy a Lot of Trump Gold Cards https://t.co/BpYwyzdkAW

@IsaacBenjaMAGA I agree, at the moment.

For investors, the most important part of WWDC 2025 is Apple's AI—other updates, such as UI design, are secondary. While AI competition is more of a marathon than a sprint, WWDC 2025 is likely to disappoint most investors' expectations (particularly when compared with Google I/O). That said, Apple's stock didn't move much following the event, consistent with my analysis that market expectations for Apple’s AI are already quite low. Additionally, some investors still cling to the belief that Apple "will finally gain a foothold in the AI market." Given the accelerating pace of the AI industry, Apple risks falling further behind competitors if …

對投資人來說，WWDC 2025最重要的是Apple的AI，其他的更新如介面設計都是次要。雖然AI競爭像一場馬拉松，而非單一事件決定輸贏，但WWDC 2025應該讓大部分的投資人期待落空 (特別是跟Google I/O比較下)。不過，WWDC後Apple股價波動不大，原因就如我分析，市場對Apple的AI預期很低，另外也是有部分投資人始終相信「Apple終究會在AI領域佔有一席之地」。 AI產業進展正加速中，意味著Apple如果不加大投資，跟競爭對手的差距可能會擴大。這或許對Apple的硬體在短期內影響有限，但這是Apple在次世代消費電子產品 (如AR眼鏡) 的挑戰。