Ming-Chi Kuo

iPhone Air需求低於預期，供應鏈已經開始降低出貨與產能。供應鏈的產能普遍到1Q26會縮減80%以上，部分出貨前置時間較長的零組件，預計在2025年底前停產。這意味著既有的Pro系列與標準版機型，已經很好得涵蓋了大部分的高階用戶需求，很難再找到新的市場區隔與定位 (從mini、Plus到至今Air的嘗試都沒有成功)。

The press release didn’t make it clear that after the first Nvidia Blackwell wafer was produced in the U.S., it would still need to be shipped to Taiwan for CoWoS advanced packaging — only then would the production of the Blackwell chip be considered complete. Two years from now, if advanced packaging could start in the U.S., that would already count as ahead of schedule. https://t.co/ilcl7qbJx9

新聞稿沒說清楚的是，在美國生產第一片Nvidia Blackwell晶圓後，接著還是需要運送到台灣做CoWoS封裝，Blackwell晶片生產才算完成。兩年後的今天，如果能在美國開始先進封裝，進度已算超預期。 https://t.co/K2bWmPQU2n https://t.co/YoiSde4mbl

As I predicted a year ago, M5 chip is the most important hardware upgrade in the new Vision Pro. https://t.co/ywsA8MCWJp https://t.co/ad56Yg111S

如我一年前所預測，M5晶片是新款Vision Pro最重要的硬體更新 https://t.co/ywsA8MCWJp https://t.co/9iSCacafng

Foldable iPhone Hinge: Key Updates — Lower-Than-Expected ASP Favors Apple; Supplier Shifts Favor Foxconn; Luxshare as a Potential Supplier; Reassessing the Contribution to SZS and Amphenol Full story https://t.co/qCaYyKogrq https://t.co/wJrzBHDfOR

折疊iPhone軸承關鍵更新：單價顯著低於預期有利Apple、供應商變化有利鴻海、立訊為潛在供應商、需重新檢視對新日興與Amphenol的貢獻 閱讀全文 https://t.co/sLB5YwdQi5 https://t.co/XGV0ALnvma

Here’s a focused analysis of the widely discussed The Information report about Oracle. I believe this analysis helps clarify the report’s logic. I’m not commenting on the report’s motives, nor on Oracle’s share price. The following two passages from the report are pivotal: they indicate the period covered (June–August 2025) and the scope (rentals of small quantities of both new and older Nvidia GPUs). -- “In the three months that ended in August, Oracle generated around $900 million from rentals of servers powered by Nvidia chips and recorded a gross profit of $125 million.” “In some cases, Oracle is losing considerable sums on rentals of s…

重點分析一下很多人討論的這篇The Information關於Oracle的報導，我相信閱讀完此分析，有助於釐清報導邏輯。我在這邊不評論報導動機，也不評論Oracle股價。 以下這兩段原文是關鍵，得知報導的統計時間是「2025年6-8月」，觀察對象是「少量出租新舊Nvidia GPU的業務」。 -- In the three months that ended in August, Oracle generated around $900 million from rentals of servers powered by Nvidia chips and recorded a gross profit of $125 million In some cases, Oracle is losing considerable sums on rentals of small quantities of both newer and older versions of Nvidia’s chips, the data show. -- 接著，從產業研究角度，說明與分析Oracle在2025年6-8月做了什麼，以及遇到什麼。包括以下三個重點： 1. 我的產業調查指出，2025年全球GB200 NVL72的出貨中，Oracle採購約12%，雖是大客戶，但低於微軟 (~30%)、Google (~16%)與Dell (~14%)，因此取得時間較晚，約在2Q25底 (vs. GB20…

From a supply-chain perspective, here’s a quick look at OpenAI’s plan to start deploying 1 GW of AMD MI450 systems in 2H26—and what it could mean for Nvidia. 1. There have been no significant changes to AMD’s 2026 CoWoS orders over the past two weeks. 2. 1 GW MI450 deployment translates to roughly 50K CoWoS-L wafers. Current estimates put AMD’s 2026 CoWoS orders at 60K–80K wafers (80–90% for MI400 series). This means AMD's current CoWoS order plan is sufficient to support the 1 GW build-out, under both optimistic and conservative scenarios. 3. A quick look suggests that the main beneficiaries of OpenAI’s AMD order are suppliers tied to HBM…

從供應鏈角度，快速看一下OpenAI預計要自2H26開始部署1 GW的AMD MI450這件事，以及對Nvidia的影響： 1. 過去兩週AMD的2026年的CoWoS訂單無顯著變化。 2. 部署1 GW的AMD MI450約等於5萬片CoWoS-L。目前AMD的2026年的CoWoS訂單推估6-8萬片 (約80-90%用於MI400系列)，故無論是樂觀或謹慎版本都可滿足佈建1 GW MI450需求。 3. 受惠AMD的OpenAI訂單，初步看比較明顯的是HBM與UALink供應鏈。MI450 HBM4主要供應商是Samsung；完整的UALink規格雖要到2027年的MI500系列才能量產，但高訂單能見度會讓相關供應商股價先反應 (如Astera Labs)。 4. 從Nvidia做機櫃等級伺服器的痛苦經驗看，部署1 GW的MI450過程應該也不會太輕鬆。Nvidia能做的就是在AMD的機櫃等級伺服器順利出貨前，盡可能把競爭格局提升到另一個層次，確保接下來的優勢，而很明顯的，Nvidia也早就在做了，只要AI算力市場整體是成長的，OpenAI與AMD合作這件事，對Nvidia影響應該有限。

An Analysis of U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s Call for a “50–50” Semiconductor Commitment from Taiwan Full story https://t.co/ad62vebh5C https://t.co/tTa1htrY4C

針對美國商務部長Lutnick對台灣呼籲半導體承諾「50–50」之評估與分析 閱讀全文 https://t.co/6GEalNUgML https://t.co/XzMBWdMZXk

If the goal is to boost U.S. semiconductor output, TSMC taking equity stakes or forming joint ventures is far less efficient than directly expanding its U.S. capacity. That should be obvious—and it’s why TSMC has had no equity- or JV-related discussions with any company to date and has repeatedly denied related market rumors. https://t.co/jVetrcuKbR

站在提升美國半導體產出的角度，台積電入股或合資的效率，遠遠不及其直接投入在美產能擴張。這是顯而易見的事實，這是台積電至今沒有跟任何公司有入股或合資相關討論、並持續否認多次市場相關傳言的原因。 https://t.co/bFsku1XCIU https://t.co/ck8uRGriJ6

Xiaomi 17 Series Update & Analysis: Shipment Cut, Challenges, and Paths Back to Growth 1. Shipment plan cut: My latest industry surveys point to a significant ~20% cut for the Xiaomi 17 series shipments (from an original target of ~10M units). If there is no further step-up in pricing or marketing going forward, total shipments for the 17 series could fall below the 15 series’ ~8M units. 2. Mix shift behind the cut: The cut is mainly due to weaker-than-expected demand for the standard model. It was expected to account for ~50–55% of total 17 series, but after launch it’s tracking at only ~15–20%. While Pro Max and Pro models have seen incre…

小米新款Xiaomi 17系列更新與相關分析：出貨下修、挑戰與重返成長的機會 1. 出貨下修：我最新的產業調查顯示，Xiaomi 17系列總出貨量顯著下修20% (原先目標約1,000萬部)，若後續無更積極的價格策略或行銷活動，17系列總出貨量可能會低於15系列的約800萬部。 2. 下修背後的產品組合變動：下修主因是17標準版低於預期。原先預估標準版需求最強勁，可佔整體17系列約50-55%，但實際開賣後僅佔約15-20%。雖Pro Max與Pro有增加訂單，但仍無法抵銷17標準版砍單，故整體出貨預估下修約20%。 3. 來自iPhone的競爭壓力：Xiaomi 17標準版需求低於預期的主因之一是iPhone 17標準版在中國市場優於預期。 4. 從競爭角度看，小米在2026年的中國高階市場挑戰有兩個： 1) Apple/iPhone在中國最壞已過，需面對來自2026新款iPhone的競爭壓力 (1H26 新款iPhone SE、2H26有新款高階iPhone系列)。 2) 華為的高階機型需求因純血鴻蒙相容性而低於預期，預期此問題將在2026年改善，或官方提供更普遍的刷機 （回至兼容版鴻蒙) 服務。 5. 後續觀察：如果Xiaomi 17系列在十一長假的銷售狀況沒有進一步改善，為提振高階機型的總出貨量，降低特定機型售價是其中一個可能的做法。展望2026年，小米18系列之競爭策略與端側AI佈局為高階機型能否恢復成長的關鍵。

Key Industry Takeaways from Nvidia’s $5 Billion Investment in Intel 1. Partnership Could Define and Accelerate the AI PC Landscape For Nvidia, developing its own Windows-on-ARM processors carries high uncertainty; for Intel, establishing a competitive edge in GPUs is difficult. Teaming up (CPU + GPU) could create powerful synergies and advantages across the PC ecosystem. 2. Significant Synergistic Potential in x86 / Mid & Low-Range / Inference AI Servers A key trend ahead is enterprises building x86-based / mid & low-range / inference AI servers on-premises. Intel leverages its vast installed base and distribution channels; Nvidia brings te…

Nvidia投資Intel 50億美元之產業趨勢重點分析 1, Nvidia與Intel合作有望定義AI PC並加速其發展 對Nvidia而言，自行開發Windows on ARM處理器的不確定性高；對 Intel 而言，要在GPU領域快速提升競爭力難度高。兩者合作（CPU＋GPU）可望在PC生態中形成強綜效與優勢。 2. 在 x86／中低階／推論用 AI 伺服器上也具高綜效 企業自建x86／中低階／推論用的AI伺服器為未來關鍵趨勢。Intel擁有 x86伺服器企業客戶與通路資源；Nvidia具備技術優勢 (AI晶片、NVLink、CUDA等)。若雙方高度整合技術與銷售優勢，將有機會顯著受惠於龐大的潛在需求。 3. 台積電：先進製程與AI晶片訂單數年內不受影響，主要觀察PC、GPU、x86伺服器與網通客戶的市佔與訂單變化，但整體而言風險可控 (1) 台積電先進製程優勢可望至少維持至2030年，Nvidia與Intel合作不易改變此趨勢。 (2) AI晶片需最先進製程，台積電的AI晶片訂單不受影響。 (3) 此投資未來可能改變Nvidia與Intel的競爭者之市佔 (如AMD的PC、GPU與x86伺服器晶片、Broadcom的網通晶片等)，進而影響台積電的訂單。但考量到Nvidia與Intel仍將持續在台積電投片，網通產品沒有用到最先進的製程故對台積電貢獻較低，因此整體而言風險可控。

MacBook models will feature a touch panel for the first time, further blurring the line with the iPad. This shift appears to reflect Apple’s long-term observation of iPad user behavior, indicating that in certain scenarios, touch controls can enhance both productivity and the overall user experience. 1. The OLED MacBook Pro, expected to enter mass production by late 2026, will incorporate a touch panel using on-cell touch technology. 2. The more affordable MacBook model powered by an iPhone processor, slated for mass production in 4Q25, will not support a touch panel. Specifications for its second-generation version, anticipated in 2027, re…

MacBook將首度配備觸控面板，與iPad的界線將進一步模糊。這樣的變化可能反映出Apple觀察多年iPad用戶行為，發現某些用戶情境下觸控操作可改善生產力與用戶體驗。 1. 預計在2026年底量產的OLED MacBook Pro，將配備觸控面板 (採用on-cell觸控技術)。 2. 預計在4Q25量產的配備iPhone處理器之低價版MacBook不配備觸控面板。第二代 (預計在2027年量產) 規格尚在討論中，有支援觸控功能的可能。

Briefly looking back at the predictions I made on specs and details for Apple’s new products—from several months to a little over a year ago—the vast majority have proven to be accurate or very close. 1. iPhone Air — Most of my calls were spot-on or very close, including design goals, resolution, thickness, eSIM-only support, and frame material. (~8 and ~14 months ago): https://t.co/u0rSKXYQtX https://t.co/wd45SXtyKB 2. Apple Watch (2025) — Beyond the routine model refreshes, I said the 2025 lineup would include an Ultra 3 and an updated SE (~12 months ago): https://t.co/LS8UJBEW5F 3. iPhone 17 Dynamic Island — Even with some market rumors…

約略回顧數個月到1年多前，我對Apple新產品做過的規格細節預測，絕大部分與實際狀況一致或非常接近 1. iPhone Air規格預測。絕大部分預測正確或非常接近，如設計目標、解析度、厚度、僅支援eSIM、中框材質等 (約8個月與14個月前)： https://t.co/u0rSKXYQtX https://t.co/O1RCvJRc95 2. Apple Watch。除了常規的Apple Watch機型升級，2025年新款Apple Watch將包括Ultra 3與SE升級版 (約12個月前)： https://t.co/LS8UJBEW5F 3. iPhone 17動態島。即便先前有些市場傳言認為iPhone 17動態島會因為相機採用Metalens而面積變小，但我仍預測2H25 iPhone 17系列的動態島大小幾乎沒什改變 (約8個月前)： https://t.co/u0rSKXYQtX 4. iPhone 17 RAM。3款iPhone 17配備12GB RAM (約5個月前)： https://t.co/8p490KnRmH

My take: the iPhone Air is one of those products that doesn’t look compelling on paper, but the in-store, hands-on experience is likely what sells it.

我主觀認為，iPhone Air是那種，在網路上單看規格可能沒興趣購買，但在店面實際上手後，可能會有購買動機的產品。

[Update] Samsung’s shipment schedule for iPhone CIS is later than expected, with mass volume likely postponed until 2027. The ultra-wide CIS supplied by Samsung is expected to be adopted first in mid- to low-end iPhone models. [更新] Samsung出貨iPhone用CIS的時程較預期延後，可能要到2027年才開始。其供應之超廣角 (Ultra-wide) CIS預計將先導入中低階iPhone機型。

[Update] Apple is expected to launch AirPods Pro 3 in 2H25, while a more significant hardware upgrade with the IR camera-equipped model is anticipated in 2026. [更新] 預期Apple將在2H25推出AirPods Pro 3。硬體升級更顯著、配備IR相機的AirPods機型將在2026年推出。

GIS: Worst Over, Exclusive Apple Foldable iPhone/iPad and Vision Air Supply, Enhanced Long-Term Profitability Visibility from Next-Gen Orders Full story https://t.co/xg3iixB75m https://t.co/hlPXfHuaZc

GIS最壞時期已過，獨供Apple折疊iPhone/iPad與Vision Air，次世代產品訂單強化長期獲利能見度 全文連結 https://t.co/rPEd4q1iRR https://t.co/nI5r4rY2kI

Six months ago, I predicted the foldable iPhone would use side-button Touch ID. There are now market rumors that it will adopt an under-display ultrasonic fingerprint sensor, but I think that’s unlikely. It’s expected that Luxshare ICT will supply the side-button Touch ID module for the foldable iPhone.